Transcript Climate Predictions and Projections Program

Climate Predictions and
Projections
Ants Leetmaa
Program Manager
Contributions from: Jin Huang, Ming Ji, Arun Kumar;
and Jim Todd
Climate Predictions and Projections
Program Performance
Objectives
• Improve climate predictive capability from weeks
to decades, with increased range of applicability
for management and policy decisions
• Reduce uncertainty in climate change projections
through timely information on forcing and
feedbacks contributing to changes in the Earth’s
climate
• Understand and predict the consequences of
climate variability and change on marine
ecosystems
Climate Predictions and Projections
Program Requirements:
Legislative
• Global Change Research Act: This act mandates the
development of a research program whose goal is to
understand climate variability and its predictability
• Weather Service Organic Act: Outlines NOAA’s
responsibility to produce climate forecasts
• Coastal Zone Management Act: Requires understanding
and predicting long-term climate change which may have
large impacts in the coastal zone (such as global warming
and associated sea level rise)
• Strategic plan for the Climate Change Science
Program (CCSP): requires reduced uncertainty in
projections of how the Earth’s climate may change in
future.
Climate Predictions and Projections
Program Requirements: NOAA
Mission
• Understand and predict climate variability on timescales ranging
from intraseasonal through seasonal to decadal and beyond
• Monitor, assess, and forecast climate
• Improve climate models to reduce uncertainty in the projections
of Earth’s climate
• Improve knowledge of observed variability and change of the
Earth’s past and present climate and environment
• Understand and predict long-term climate change and evaluate its
impacts on the coastal zone
Climate Predictions and Projections
Program Capabilities: 1
• Operational Predictions, Projections
and Products:
– To provide operational predictions and
products from intraseasonal-to-decadal time
scales
– To provide climate assessments and
projections in support of policy decisions with
objective and accurate climate change
information
Climate Predictions and Projections
Program Capabilities: 2
• High-end Climate/Earth System Model
Development:
– To develop and implement the next generation
of climate and Earth System models and to
transition improved models into operations
– Resources reside in the Environmental
Modeling program under the Weather and
Water goal
Climate Predictions and Projections
Program Capabilities: 3
• Applied Research and Product
Development:
– To improve operational predictions and
projections
– Develop new climate products
– To sustain an applied research capability in
understanding, attributing climate variability
and its predictability
Climate Predictions and Projections
Program Capabilities:4
• Test Models against observations and
define requirements for observing
systems to support forecasts and
improve model:
– Based on model simulations and predictions
studies, provide observational requirements for
improving climate predictions and projections
Climate Predictions and Projections
Program Outcomes and the
End-State
• The long-term outcomes:
– NOAA has world-class Earth System Models providing the best
climate predictions and projections available.
– Following users’ requirements develop new climate predictions
and projections products.
– NOAA maintains a suite of routine climate outlooks, climate
projections, and climate assessments.
– NOAA’s internal and external research community maintained
by sustained by research funding to enhance NOAA's climate
forecasts, assessments, and applications products.
– Provide observational requirements to GEOSS for improving
climate outlooks and projections.
Climate Predictions and Projections
Climate Services and Products
• Current Prediction Products
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Operational monthly/seasonal outlooks
Seasonal hurricane outlook
Days 6-10, 8-10 outlooks
Drought Monitoring and seasonal outlook
Seasonal heat index and wind chill outlook
ENSO outlook
Climate Predictions and Projections
Climate Services and Products
• Current Informational Products:
– Contributions to IPCC assessments
– Climate Attribution reports
– Observational system requirement reports
Climate Predictions and Projections
Unique Role of the Program in
the NOAA Climate Goal
• Providing operational predictions, projections, and
information reports
– Operational climate outlooks
– Climate change projections
– Attribution reports
• Provide a mechanism for transition-to-operations (the
Climate Test-Bed; GAPP Core Project)
• Develop user required climate products and applications
• Promote understanding of climate variability and change,
and its application for enhancing predictions and products
• Linking observations with climate predictions and
projections
Climate Predictions and Projections
Functional Structure of the P&P
Program
Capability 1
Capability 3 &4
Climate Predictions and Projections
Participating NOAA Line Offices
• NOAA Research
– GFDL
– NOAA Climate Program Office
• Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction (CDEP)
• Climate Prediction Program for Americas (CPPA)
• Climate Variability and Predictability (CVP)
• National Weather Service
– National Centers for Environmental Predictions
• CPC
• EMC
– Office of Hydrology
Climate Predictions and Projections
Participating External
Agencies/Organizations
• International Research Institute for Climate and
Society (IRI)
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC)
• National and international working groups (CRC;
CCSP; CLIVAR; GAPP; GEWEX; IOC;WMO;…)
• Academia and research community external to
NOAA
• Numerous bi-lateral and multi-lateral
international agreements
Climate Predictions and Projections
Current Activities in the Program
• Operational climate forecasts on seasonalto-interannual time scales and services
(Climate Prediction Center)
• Model Development for climate predictions
and projections
• Climate projections and decadal climate
predictions
• Transition-to-Operations
Climate Predictions and Projections
Current Activities in the Program
• Climate Dynamics and Experimental Predictions
– Applied research centers
– assessments and predictions of global climate variability
and its regional implications
• Climate Prediction Program for Americas
– Improving operational intraseasonal to interannual
climate prediction and the hydrological applications in
the Americas
• Climate Variability and Predictability
– To observe, model and understand patterns of climate
variability longer time scales
Climate Predictions and Projections
The Role of Competitive
Programs
• Competitive Research
– Address long-term needs (science driven future
projects)
– Merit based through competition
– Mission oriented but not “directed”
– Open to external and internal community
• Directed Research
– Address short-term needs (e.g., improve operations)
– Primarily done by the internal NOAA community
• Climate Test-bed example
– Competitive externally lead transition projects
– Base funded (NCEP) internal transition projects
– Base resource allocated to support transition projects
Climate Predictions and Projections
Relationship with the Other
Programs in the Climate Goal
Regional Decision Support Program
Climate and
Ecosystems
Program
Predictions and
Projections
Program
Climate Observations and Analysis Program
Climate Predictions and Projections
Climate
Forcing
Program
Program Outcome and Related
Performance Measures
• NOAA has world-class Earth-System Models
– Number of improved model components
• Following users’ requirements develop new products
– Number of improved products
– Number of new products under development
• NOAA maintains a suite of climate outlooks
– Climate Predictive Index: A weighted average of operational
skill on intraseasonal, seasonal, and decadal time scales
– Intraseasonal prediction skill- research
– Seasonal prediction skill-research
– Decadal prediction skill-research
• NOAA’s internal and external research community
maintained by sustained research funding
– Number of information products
Climate Predictions and Projections
End Users and Beneficiaries
• General public, private sector, Regional, and National
Managers in Water Resources, Ecosystem,
Agriculture, Energy, Transportation, and Public Heath
Sectors:
– The program provides operational forecasts and outlooks of
intraseasonal to interannual variations and intradecadal trends.
• International Coastal Ecosystem Management,
Fisheries, Public Health, Regional and National
Managers:
– The program provides objective information about climate
change projections in support of making informed policy
decisions related to mitigation and adaptation strategies
related to global change.
• Climate Observation and Analysis, Regional Decision
Support, and Climate and Ecosystems Programs
under the Climate Goal
Climate Predictions and Projections
Highlights and Past Successes
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Climate Process Teams
Climate Model Evaluation Project
Completion of the field phase of NAME
Successful Hurricane outlooks
Improved SI prediction techniques
Development of Application Products
Initiation of Climate Test-Bed
Annual Climate Attribution Reports
Contributions to IPCC AR4
Development of Drought Prediction
Clarifying the role of oceans in global climate
• NARCAPP
Climate Predictions and Projections
GFDL Simulation of Atmospheric Circulation in a
Coupled Mode are Among the Best
Average of rankings by R.M.S. error for each of 20
circulation, precipitation, TOA energy balance indices
Climate Predictions and Projections
Z200 Trends Reanalyses and Climate of 20th Century
Simulation
Trend over last 40 years
Coupled model shows some ridging, but simulations could be
better – especially in yearly mean and locations
Climate Predictions and Projections
Simulating and Understanding Active and Inactive
Atlantic Tropical storms/hurricanes Seasons
1982 – Inactive year
Observed (Aug.-Oct.), n=4
1995 – Active year
Observed (Aug-Oct.), n=15
Simulation 2: 48-hr nudging, n=6
Simulation 2: 48-hr nudging, n=14
GFDL Zetac nonhydrostatic regional model, 18km resolution, with large-scale interior nudging
Climate Predictions and Projections
Climate Predictions and Projections
Objective Consolidation of Different
SI Prediction Tools
CONSOLIDATION
IMPROVES SKILL
BY 12%
Climate Predictions and Projections
Multi-Model Framework for Attribution of
Climate Anomalies
Observed Sfc. Temp.
Average Sfc. Temp.
Simulated by 5 AGCMS
Climate Predictions and Projections
Pilot T126 Uncoupled GLDAS/LIS/Noah:
1979-1995 NCEP/DOE Global Reanalysis
Surface Forcing
Vol. Soil Moisture 0-200 cm July 1988: Drought Summer
Climate Predictions and Projections
GFS/Noah reduced longstanding high bias of
GFS/OSU over east half of CONUS
in the warm season:
Example shown for 09-25 May 2005
Mean 17-day surface latent heat flux (W/mm**2) for the 12-36 hour GFS forecast.
Ops:
GFS/OSU
Test:
GFS/Noah
Climate Predictions and Projections
North America REGIONAL REANALYSIS
Long-term set of consistent climate
data on a regional scale for the
North American domain (1979present)
(REGIONAL REANALYSIS DOMAIN)
NCEP/ETA MODEL 32 KM Spatial
Resolution; 3 Hourly Temporal
Resolution
Superior to NCEP/NCAR Global
Reanalysis due to:
1) Use of a regional model
2) Advances in modeling and data
assimilation since 1995:
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Precipitation assimilation
Direct assimilation of
radiances
Land-surface model updates
Climate Predictions and Projections
Budget Impacts and FY05 and FY06
Priorities
Budget Line
Impact
Weather/Climate Connection
Slowdown in improving
Intraseasonal forecasts
Climate Observation and Services
Program
Slowdown in development of new
prediction products
Climate Modeling Center
Reduce outlay for developing
decadal predictive capability
Competitive Programs
No increases in various grants
programs influencing research
support
Climate Predictions and Projections
Future Directions and Priorities
Climate Predictions and Projections
10 Year Plan
Where we are now
Seasonal forecasts for
temperature and precipitation
with limited skill and regionality
Developing capability for
attribution of recent major
climate anomalies
Projections of future climate
limited by uncertainties in
forcings, carbon cycle feedbacks,
and limited regionality
Process research, hypothesistesting and diagnostic studies not
obviously linked to forecast skill
improvements and new products
Our near term goals (‘07-’09)
Develop and implement strategy with
community to improve range and skill
of forecast products.
Implement systematic research
forecasting program
Implement routine capability for
attribution of recent and past climate
anomalies taking into account natural
and anthropogenic effects
Implement Earth System
Modeling capability with
improved components related to
forcings and feedbacks. Provide
high resolution projections for
users
Implement systematic research
program to assess potential
predictability and improve models
Climate Predictions and Projections
Where we plan to be 2020
Region specific climate projections
based on the Earth System
models
Skillful Seamless suite of
Forecasts and products utilizing
multi- earth system models
Real time attribution capability to
predict potential climate surprises
and respond to new climate
questions
Asses various technological
mitigation activities and their
impacts on global and regional
environmental changes
Forecast products of the impacts
on the environment and
ecosystems on a global and
regional scale
Desired End State (based on FY0812 Planning)
• Initial State in FY08:
– Improved operational seasonal forecasts
– Experimental seasonal forecasts based on multi-model
ensembles
– Develop an understanding of decadal trends
– Experimental decadal prediction
– Application models for drought, fire, water resources
– Earth system models for next sets of national and
international assessment
– Better knowledge of uncertainties in climate projections
– Development of a vigorous research-to-operations
program with implementation of Climate Test-bed
Climate Predictions and Projections
Desired End-State (based on FY0812 Planning)
• End State in FY12
– Improved operational seasonal forecasts based primarily
on dynamical techniques
– A broader suite of climate forecast products and services
(extending to health, energy, ecosystems, disaster
mitigation etc.)
– IPCC AR5 in 2012 and reduced uncertainty in the
projection of future climate
– Transition decadal forecasts into operations
– Estimate of likelihood of abrupt climate change
– A robust research-to-operations program implemented
Climate Predictions and Projections
Predictions and Projections: An
Approach to Attain Desired EndState
Decision support products:
management & policy
Operational Forecasts
Performance
metrics
Transition: Test bed
Research Forecasts, Projections and Product Development
Structured Model Experiments
•NOAA, national, international
Process and diagnostic research
•Climate variability and change
•Abrupt change
•Forcings Program
Model Development and
Computers
(in W&W: Environmental
Modeling Program)
Observing Program
Climate Predictions and Projections
Performance
metrics
Performance
metrics
How do we get There? Develop a Protocol for
Linking Research to Improved Capabilities: A
Possible Process
Develop a “life cycle” approach (finite life time projects) for two
tracks
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Areas where existing predictability studies show promise of enhanced skill
Where national/international programs (or other considerations) indicate
needed research foci – with goal to increase predictive understanding
Steps
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Establish priority areas via: a) results from predictability studies, b) other
research, c) AGM (or otherwise) high payoff/relevant areas
Finalize the list based on the input from the research community (SAB;
ARCs; …)
Include research needs in AOs of the appropriate program (CDEP, CPPA,
CVP)
Fund a group of proposals focusing on identified research needs
Monitor progress yearly
At the end of the 3-year funding cycle, prepare a “summary assessment
report”
Results of relevance will be transitioned either to systematic research fcst
category or to operations via CTB
Climate Predictions and Projections
How to get There? Developing a NOAA
Capability for Multi-Model Ensembles for
Attribution and Prediction
• What we have now:
– C20C simulations with different natural and anthropogenic forcings
– Seasonal Diagnostics Consortium AMIP simulations forced with global
SSTs
–
MM ensemble predictions at IRI (based on tier-2 approach)
– Empirical-Dynamical prediction system at Climate Diagnostics Center
Climate Predictions and Projections
How to get There? Developing a NOAA
Capability for Multi-Model Ensembles for
Attribution and Prediction
• What is the goal for 2012:
– A multi-model tier-1 SI prediction capability that would
include several national models
– Multi-model ensembles for regional downscaling
– Linking to application models
– Formalization of climate attribution and predictability
assessment activity as a NOAA requirement
– An ability to perform “on-demand” AGCM runs for
attribution and predictability assessments
– A data distribution capability to enhance community
involvement in the attribution and predictability aspect
of climate variability
Climate Predictions and Projections
Future Directions: Intraseasonal
Predictions
• Improved week2 skill score
• Develop a capability to predict climate
extremes for week 2,3,4
• Develop a predictive understanding of
the impacts of climate on the statistics of
extreme events, including hurricane
Climate Predictions and Projections
Future Directions: Seasonal-toInterannual Predictions
• Improved skill of SI Predictions
– Establish a systematic community based multi-model
forecasting capability/infrastructure
– Develop a dynamical understanding of trends
– Incorporate impacts of other ocean basins in SI
forecasts
– Systematic predictability assessments to establish
baseline predictability limits
• Implementation of a routine attribution capability
• Implement drought monitoring, forecasting, and
attribution capability
• Develop an understanding of the influence of
climate on environment
• Develop new forecast products
Climate Predictions and Projections
Future Predictions: Decadal-toCentennial Climate Variability and
Trends
• Develop experimental decadal forecast
• Understand the contributions of natural and
anthropogenic effect on the major climate
anomalies of 20th Century
• Understand feedback processes important of
abrupt climate change
• Reduce uncertainty of future climate projections
• Improve Earth System Model Capability
Climate Predictions and Projections
Predictions and Projections: FY0812 Products
• Future Operational Forecasts, Projections and Products
• Operational and research seasonal to interannual forecasts
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An objective drought monitor and forecast system
Seasonal hydrologic outlooks
Seasonal malaria outlooks
Experimental decadal forecasts
Experimental seasonal air quality outlooks
Yearly attribution reports on previous year’s climate
WMO Ozone Assessment
CCSP Synthesis and Assessment products
Energy related seasonal outlooks
Dynamical seasonal hurricane outlooks
Attribution studies on climatic impacts on ecosystems
Seasonal outlooks for terrestrial carbon budgets
Available online forecasts, projections, structured numerical experiments for impact
and application studies
• Future IPCC Assessment Reports
• Fire potential outlooks
Climate Predictions and Projections
New environmental forecast products will be
feasible
Major fires
Agricultural production at
50%, blowing dust
Health warning:
Limit outdoor
activities; expect
brownouts
major fisheries
regime change likely
Air quality alerts –
75% of days
Frequent floodings
and Asian dust
threats continue
Swimming and
Fishing prohibited
High danger
of toxic CO2
releases
Expect fisheries
downturn; health
threats
African bacteria alerts
Possible Threats-Summer 2020: hot, dry and unhealthy
Climate Predictions and Projections
Contribution of Prediction and
Program to the Climate Goal
Priorities
Climate Predictions and Projections
P &P Program Actions Leading to
Implementation of NIDIS
P&P Program Structure
Operational Forecasts &
Products
Research Forecasts and
Products
Predictability Studies
Process Research and
Hypothesis Testing
Activities contribution to development of NIDIS
Objective model-based drought-relevant forecasts
High resolution drought monitoring (nowcasts – utilizing various
LDAS products)
Multi-model land and climate forecasts (coupled & off line), e.g.
a national drought forecsting capability
High resolution downscaling capabilities
Research forecasts utilizing dynamic vegetation & river runoff
Decadal predictability studies (utilizing global tropical
information)
Coupled & uncoupled studies to understand 20th C. droughts
Climate of last 1000 years – modeling/data studies to
understand potential for prolonged droughts & possible 21 st C
surprises
Projections for 21st C. exploring probabilities for future droughts
Assessing impacts of Indo-Pacific SST variability and trends on
U.S. droughts
Assessing impacts of Atlantic decadal variability on U.S.
droughts
North American research into understanding and predicting
hydroclimatic regimes
Climate Predictions and Projections
Seasonal Hydrologic Prediction
System:
A Multi-Model
Framework
soil moisture streamflow, soil moisture,
local scale (1/8 degree)
weather inputs
snowpack
Hydrologic
model spin up
INITIAL
STATE
NCDC met.
station obs.
up to 2-4
months from
current
1-2 years back
LDAS/other
real-time
met. forcings
for spin-up
gap
snow water equivalent, runoff
Multiple Hydrologic
Models
Ensemble forecasts
SNOTEL
SNOTEL
/ MODIS*
Update
Update
ESP traces (40)
CPC-based outlook (13)
NCEP CFS ensemble (20)
NSIPP ensemble (9)
Now
Source: Lettenmaier
Climate Predictions and Projections
Month 6 - 12
P&P Program Contributions in
Support of CCSP
CCSP Synthesis
Report
Description
3.1
Climate models and their uses and limitations,
including sensitivity, feedbacks, and uncertainty
analysis
3.3
Climate extremes including documentation of
current extremes. Prospects for improving
projections
3.2
Climate Projections for research and assessment
based on emissions scenarios developed through
CCTP
1.1
Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere- steps
for understanding and reconciling differences
1.3
Reanalysis of historical data for key atmospheric
features. Implications for attribution of causes of
observed change
Climate Predictions and Projections
P&P Program Contributions in Support of
Ecosystems
• Development of Earth System models in support
of coastal nutrient production and runoff
• Model based attribution (and future projection
over the next few decades) of significant physical
and biological changes to climate variability
• Increased understanding of how variability in
climate and ecosystem are linked
Climate Predictions and Projections
Next Frontier for NOAA: Ecological Forecasting
(Nutrient delivery to the coasts)
Courtesy C. Vorosmarty, UNH
Climate Predictions and Projections
Appendix
Climate Predictions and Projections
Addressing the Environmental Challenges
of the 21st Century
Ecological Forecasting
Applications Requiring
ocean – atmosphere
forecasts from weather to
climate timescales
Transoceanic Pollution
and Climate
Extreme Events
Energy- Weather
and Climate
Drought and Water
Resources
Climate Predictions and Projections
Multi-Model Framework for
Attribution of Climate Anomalies
OBS
June 1998-May 2002
(The Perfect Oceans for Drought)
MODEL
Climate Predictions and Projections
Understanding and Prediction of Decadal Atlantic Variability
and links to Changes in Hurricane Activity – a Research
Program at GFDL
Simulating and
understanding climate and
hurricanes
Understanding decadal variability in
atmospheric conditions impacting
hurricane formation
Composite of hurricanes in Gulf
of Mexico and ocean surface
temperatures summer 2005 -
what is link between these?
Understanding and ultimately
forecasting state of Atlantic
variability
Contrary to NOAA press release, data
suggest Atlantic overturning circulation
is slowing down
August-October
Vertical shear - observed
vertical shear - modeled
Ocean temperatures in hurricane
formation area result from trends and
(natural) decadal variability
Simulating decadal Atlantic hurricane
activity
Model hindcasts
Next step - develop
understanding of causes
Protecting the public with
world’s best operational
hurricane forecast system
Climate Predictions and Projections
A significant anthropogenic
contribution to observed warming
Note: Uses
large-scale
nudging
Climate Predictions and Projections
# of models that predict increase in
precipitation by 2100
in A1B scenario, out of 20 models used by
IPCC/AR4
Climate Predictions and Projections
Minimum spring total
ozone:
Simulated (3 runs
1960 to 2100)
Observed (19792003)
Climate Predictions and Projections
Predictability of North Atlantic
Thermohaline Circulation
Climate Predictions and Projections
North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Index
Climate Predictions and Projections
Preliminary Results: Aerosol-Warm Cloud Interactions
TOA flux change (W m-2) from
preindustrial to present-day
Distribution of cloud droplet
numbers (cm-3) at 844 mb
Annual global mean
Indirect effects: -1.8 W m-2
CO2: +1.5 W m-2
-2
Cloud Forcing (W m )
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
-120
-140
Shortwave cloud forcing (W m-2)
-2
Cloud Forcing (W m )
0
July
-20
Process-based
Satellite
-40
-60
-80
Empirical
Standard AM2
-100
-120
-140
90S
60S
30S
0
30N
60N
90N
Source: Ming et al., JAS, in review, 2005;
Ming et al., JAS, in press, 2005;
Ming et al., JGR, 110, D22206, doi:10.1029/2005JD006161, 2005.
Climate Predictions and Projections
Nutrient and CO2 Flux Hindcasts
Observed surface NO3 (uM)
Observed CO2 Flux (mol m-2 yr-1)
Modeled surface NO3 (uM)
Modeled CO2 Flux (mol m-2 yr-1)c
Climate Predictions and Projections
Replacing the ocean component of the climate model
has a significant impact on the SST error
• Implies a strong role for the ocean model in the coupled simulation
• Unique capability to have multiple ocean models in coupled system
MOM-based CM2.1 (in IPCC)
HIM-based CM2.2 (pre-tuning)
Climate Predictions and Projections
Climate Process Teams (CPTs)
• NSF/NOAA has funded CPTs between climate labs (GFDL, NCAR) and
Universities to improve physical parameterizations in climate models.
– Interaction of (Ocean) Eddies with Mixed Layers (EMILIE)
• http://www.cpt-emilie.org/
– (Ocean) Gravity Current Entrainment
• http://www.cpt-gce.org/
– Low-Latitude Cloud Feedbacks
• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~breth/CPT-clouds.html
• Teams include:
- Observationalists - Process Modelers and Theoreticians
- Model Developers - Climate Modeling Center participants
Already delivering improved parameterizations!
Climate Predictions and Projections
An Example of CPT Parameterization
Legg et al., 2005
Improvements
With thick plumes, both
interfacial shear mixing and
drag-induced near-bottom
mixing are needed
Interior Ri#
Mixing Only
Actively mixing
Interfacial Layer
Shear Ri# Param.
appropriate here.
Interior Ri#
+ Drag Mixing
Well-mixed Bottom
Boundary Layer
Mixing driven by
bottom stresses
Resolved
mixing (LES)
Observed profiles from Red Sea plume from RedSOX
Courtesy CPT member H. Peters (U.
Miami)
Climate Predictions and Projections
HIM
10 km
HIM
10 km
MITgcm
500m x 30m
Global Mean Methane Trends
1790
• Model with emissions held
constant from year-to-year
captures much of observed
rise in the 1990s.
1780
1770
1760
• Wetland pulse in 1998 is
needed to capture
magnitude post-1998.
1750
OBS
1740
constant emis
1730
time-varying anthro
1720
time-varying anth+bio
1710
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
• Trends in OH and
temperature contribute to
the CH4 rise, followed by a
leveling off in the late
2006
1990s.
Climate Predictions and Projections
Aerosol Model Evaluation
MOZART
Sulfate (SO4=)
Observations
Climate Predictions and Projections
200 mb Height
Observation
Model
1986-2000
1961-1975
El Niño Events
El Niño :
• Before IWP (Indian-western
Pacific) warming (1961-75),
cold and wet conditions (200
mb troughs) prevail over U.S.
• After IWP warming (19862000), ridge response to IWP
forcing reduces strength of
the trough anomaly.
La Niña
Events
1986-2000
1961-1975
Observation
Model
La Niña :
• Before IWP warming, warm
and dry conditions (200 mb
ridges) prevail over U.S.
• After IWP warming,
response to IWP forcing
enhances ridge anomaly still
further.
Climate Predictions and Projections
20th and 21st century Sahel rainfall in CM2
B1
A1B
(CM2 mean)
A2
A2
A1B
B1
Climate Predictions and Projections
Impact of AMO on Northern Pacific Variability
EOF 1 of Northern Pacific winter SST (1901-2000)
Regression of winter 500mb geopotential height (m)
on PC 1 of Northern Pacific winter SST (1949-2000)
OBS
MODEL
X2.4
Climate Predictions and Projections
Code Development & Model Configuration
atmos
atmos
ocean
ocean
ocean
CM2.0
dob: spring ‘04
land
CM2.1
dob: fall ‘04
Each of the two sets of
IPCC experiments
represents ~2,600 model
years of integrations.
The CM2.0 & CM2.1
experiments required
30% to 60% of GFDL’s
computing resources for
~12 months and
generated >300 TB of
model output files.
Climate Predictions and Projections
sea ice
Code Development & Model Configuration
atmos
atmos
ocean
ocean
ocean
CM2.0
dob: spring ‘04
done: Oct ‘04
land
sea ice
CM2.1
dob: fall ‘04
done: Jan ‘05
***CM2.x
Standardization
Output Files
Model ofOutput
Files***
GFDL
In-House
Research &
Model
Evaluations
(part of GFDL’s
“traditional”
science)
Share CM2.x
output with
authors
of US Climate
Change
Science
Program (US
CCSP) reports
Ship CM2.x
model output to
IPCC/PCMDI
archive in
Livermore CA
(~4TB CM2.x data
shipped)
>300 IPCC WG1
registered users
Climate Predictions and Projections
Making CM2.x
model output &
documentation
accessible via the
GFDL Data Portal
nomads.gfdl.noaa.g
ov (no registration,
wider range of
users)
Improving Predictions over North America:
Accomplishments
- NAME (North American Monsoon Experiment)
- LDAS (Land Data Assimilation System)
- Land model in NCEP Climate Forecast System
- Drought monitoring and prediction (NIDIS)
- EPIC (East Pacific Investigation of Climate)
- Transition of research to NCEP and NWS operations
- North America Regional Reanalysis
- Climate-based hydrologic forecasts
- the NCEP CFS
Climate Predictions and Projections
Elements of a Comprehensive Ongoing Analysis
•
Enhancing and managing the observational database
–
•
Ongoing analysis:
–
–
–
•
Post 1979 reanalysis with goal of continuous climate record
Post 1950 reanalysis with same goal
Post 1850 surface NH oriented
Continental-scale regional reanalysis at very high spatial resolution
Stewardship and dissemination
–
•
Continually update most recent reanalyses (CDAS)
Use OSEs and OSSEs to document impact of continuing observing system changes
Provide feedback to observing system developers/operators
Periodic reanalyses
–
–
–
–
•
Archeology, new sensors, continuity and feedback
Ensure that the products are useable
Applied research
–
–
Develop improved methods and products
Intended to solve problems identified within program
STATUS:
PRIORITIES:
MERRA (NASA satellite-era effort) moving forward
NOAA planning begun
National and International Coordination
Program Management
in NOAA
Climate Predictions and Projections
Regional climate models have been developed to explore
biases seen in Global climate models
SST (°C) contours, wind vectors, and precipitation (mm/day color)
COUPLED
MODELING: State of
the art global coupled
models (top panels)
exhibit biases in the mean
state such as a double
ITCZ and west-shifted
cold tongue, when
compared to TMI satellite
observations (bottom
left). One way to explore
whether these biases arise
from local or global
processes is to construct a
regional coupled model
forced at the lateral
boundaries with
prescribed data.
Preliminary investigations
with a regional model
(bottom right) show a
significant reduction in
bias.
GFDL-CM2.1
TMI
MPI/ECHAM
IPRC ROAM
Climate Predictions and Projections
EPIC is leading to new
parameterizations and
improved general
circulation models of the
eastern tropical Pacific
Chlorophyll based parameterization of
solar transmission has been implemented in
NCAR CCM and is superior to Jerlov type.
Comstock et al. (2004)
Raymond et al. (2004)
Infrared brightness temperature can be predicted
based on surface wind speed andClimate
convective
inhibition
Predictions
and Projections
Derived formula for
cloud base drizzle rate
useful for GCMs
UW Experimental West-wide
hydrologic prediction system
climate model
output
Real-time
Ensemble Forecasts
CPC official
forecasts
ESP as baseline fcst
1.
2.
Downscaling
VIC hydrologic
simulations
Ensemble Hindcasts
(for bias-correction
and preliminary
skill assessment)
* ESP extended streamflow prediction
(unconditional climate forecasts
run from current hydrologic state)
(after Lettenmaier)
West-wide forecast products
streamflow
soil moisture, snowpack
tailored to application sectors
fire, power, recreation
Climate Predictions and Projections
NOAA Seasonal Drought Outlook
Climate Predictions and Projections
NOAA/CPC Climate Services
Major Product Categories
Expert Assessments (e.g., Hazards, ENSO,
Drought, Degree Days, published Bulletins)
Pre-1994 1994-99 2000-06
4
6
8
Outlooks (e.g., Week-2, Monthly, Seasonal,
Drought, Hurricane Season, UV, Heat)
4
7
10
Data, Monitoring, & “Nowcasting”
(e.g., Reanalysis, Ozone, AO/NAO, ENSO)
8
12
16
Partnerships (e.g., NOAA Lab MOUs, EPA,
USDA, NASA, IRI, USAID)
4
7
11
Note: Each major category/example/count above can represent a complex
set of dozens of climate and weather products unique to NOAA.
For example, the on-line Climate Diagnostics Bulletin alone
presents over 70 product.
Climate Predictions and Projections
Prototype
8-14-day
Forecast from
The
North
American
Ensemble
Forecast
System
EXPERIMENTAL
8-14-DAY FORECAST
500-HPA HEIGHTS AND
2-M TEMPERATURE (DEG F)
MADE DEC 02, 2005
VALID DEC 10-16, 2005
(NAEFS)
The U.S., Canada and Mexico, through NAEFS, will develop a standard set of
basic products from calibrated models. End products derived from basic
products will be developed to suit each country’s requirements. A very early
version of one such end product, developed at CPC, is shown above.
Climate Predictions and Projections
Reanalysis (OACS) is Essential
Given continuing improvement in our understanding of
climate observations and the need for long time series,
periodic reprocessing is a hallmark of every climate
observing system. Europe, Japan and the US have ongoing
efforts. NOAA, NASA, and DOE collaboration is essential.
National and international
coordination, and an OACS,
are essential to a successful
GEOSS program
Workshop on Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System
18-20 August 2003, Boulder, Colorado
Climate Predictions and Projections