Transcript ClimateCrisisScience

Dr. LaRae M. Donnellan, APR, CPRC
Professor of Public Relations
Florida A&M University
(Photo from www.epa.gov/climatechange)
Climate Crisis Information
 Part One
 How do we get information about global climate crisis
 Who believes the global climate crisis is real & what do
they say
 Part Two
 Who doesn’t believe it is real & what do they say
Getting Info from the Media
 Agenda-Setting Theory: The media tell us what to
think about, not necessarily how to think about it.
 Gatekeepers of newsworthiness (TIPCUP)
 Balance
 Professionals vs. amateurs
 Echo chamber
How Scientists Communicate
 Scientific process
 Verifiable results
 Refereed journals
 Admit mistakes
 Probability
 > 99% = “virtually certain”
 > 95% = “extremely likely”
 > 90% = “very likely”
 > 66% = “likely”
Who Says the GC Crisis is Real?
 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
 NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Science, National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration, National Center for Atmospheric Research, American
Meteorological Society, Environmental Protection Agency, Union of
Concerned Scientists, National Weather Service, World Glacier Monitoring
Service, etc.
 National academies of science from at least 45
countries, including the Vatican
 Environmental, civic & religious organizations
 U.S. military
 People whose lives have already been disrupted
by climate change
Dr. James Hansen, NOAA climate scientist,
climateprogress.org/2008/06/page/2/
Would You Take This Flight?
 Climate change, caused primarily by humans, is “very likely”
(more than 90% probability of occurring).
What Are Scientists Saying?
 CO2 – 390 ppm & rising
(Source: NOAA; http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/)
 Rising temperatures
What Are Scientists Saying?
 Arctic sea ice declining
 2007 accelerated thaw
 Northwest & Northeast Passages
open
 Replacing reflective ice with dark
ocean
 Ice sheets shrinking
 2003-2008, Greenland lost more than
trillion tons – 150-250 cubic
kilometers – of ice
 2002-2006, Antarctic lost about 152
cubic kilometers of ice
 Source of fresh water
 Relatively warmer water
(From http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/)
What Are Scientists Saying?
 Oceans more acidic
More so than anytime in the last 800,000
years
 Shellfish can’t make thick-enough shells
(think DDT)
 2009: Pacific oyster industry reported 80%
mortality for oyster larvae
 Coral reefs dying off; barrier against
storms

(From: http://www.duke.edu/web/nicholas/bio217/jrc25/PA180142.jpg)
 Oceans warmer
Can’t absorb as much CO2; have been a
natural “sink”
 Low oxygen hard for fish
 Promote stronger hurricanes & cyclones

(From http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ & Scientific American)
What Are Scientists Saying?
 Ocean levels rising
 Rose 17 cm (6.7 inches) in the last
century
 Rate doubled in last decade
 Maldives, the lowest-lying nation
on the planet, fears for its survival
 Retreating glaciers
(From dailymail.co.uk)
 Himalayas, Alps, Andes & great
American West snowpack melting
 Rising temperatures; less water;
more drying of forests, crops
 Expanding tropics
 2°+ north & south since 1980
(From domino.lancs.ac.uk)
What Are Scientists Saying?
 More drought
 “New normal” for Australia
 Powerful brushfires
 Forests drying
 Trees less hardy
 Longer fire season
 ½ of U.S. Forest Service budget =
extinguishing fires
 Western forests responsible for 2040% of U.S. carbon sequestration;
may become source, not sink
 Pests thriving
 Mountain pine beetle
 Mosquito & dengue fever
(From worldweatherpost.com)
(From www.msnbcmsn.com/
id/15625626/)
(From http://www.sosarsenic.net/images/mosquit1.jpg)
What Are Scientists Saying?
 Hurricanes & cyclones
 Stronger & stranger
 Last ½ decade: 1st tropical storm to
hit Spain; 1st January tropical
cyclone; 2008 – major storm in 5
different months; 2008 Tropical
Storm Fay cross Florida 4 times
 Heat waves
 1995 in Chicago, nearly 500 died
(TOP RIGHT: From
examiner.com)
(TOP LEFT:
http://scrapetv.com/News/News
%20Pages/usa/Images/hurrican
e-katrina.jpg)
 2003 in France, 30,000 died
 Rainfall & floods
 Total rainfall up 7%
 Comes as downpours
(From msnbc.com)
What Are Scientists Saying?
 Crop loss
 Global per capita production of
grain peaked in 1980s
 Reductions in wheat, corn &
barley yields of about 40 million
tons/year
 Using corn for ethanol – food riots
in 37 countries
(From http://trendsupdates.com/abundance-no-more-global-foodcrisis-as-seen-through-high-food-cost/)
 Methane & nitrous oxide
 Agriculture is a major source
 Tourism loss
 Psychological despair
(From http://www.reuters.com/article/
idUSTRE65B1XE20100613?type=domesticNews)
Why Are People Still Flying?
 Why is the “1 in 10 chance of survival” message so compelling?
 Not framed that way
 Ill-informed vs. vested interest vs. sociopath?
Framing Theory
 We are told not only what to think about but also how
to think about it.
 Frames are mental (physical) filters that help us make
sense of incoming information. They involve scenarios
and metaphors.
 98% of what we “know” is rooted
in our unconscious.
 George Lakoff, “Don’t Think of an Elephant”
 “Gun control” or “gun safety”
 “Tax revolt” or “tax relief”
PR, not Science
 Doubt about the climate crisis has been spread by an
organized PR campaign, largely financed by the oil and
coal industries
 James Hoggan & Richard Littlemore,
“Climate Cover-Up: The Crusade to Deny
Global Warming”
 Arguments based on PR strategies
& tactics, not science
 But should the GCC be real, then:
 Humans did not cause it
 It’s too expensive to fix
 There’s nothing we can do about it
Have They Been Successful?
(From http://www.gallup.com/poll/126560/Americans-Global-Warming-Concerns-Continue-Drop.aspx?version)
Partisan Divisions: Pew Polls
 College-educated partisans:
Are humans responsible
(2008 Pew poll)?
 Democrats: 75% yes
 Republicans: 19% yes
 Why a difference?
 How they consume media & which
media they consume.
 Democrats: Better informed about
the science.
 Republicans: Better informed
about the controversy.
Pew Research Center for the People & the Press,
conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 4, 2009, among 1,500 adults
reached on cell phones and landlines.
Remember the “Tobacco Debate”?
 PR’s role
 Edward Bernays hired by American Tobacco Company – promote
smoking. Targeted women.
 Tactic:
 Have young women smoke while marching in the
“Torches of Liberty Brigade” Easter Parade in 1929
in Manhattan
 Frame:
 Not about health/science … but about women’s
equality/freedom (to smoke Lucky Strike
cigarettes in public)
Remember the “Tobacco Debate”?
 1950s – Tobacco Industry Research Committee/
Council for Tobacco Research
 Funded research that cast doubt on health risks of smoking
 Strategies:
 Reposition debate: Not about health but about free choice.
 Deny wrongdoing: The link between tobacco and cancer was never
“proved” beyond reasonable doubt.
 Excuse or minimize the problem:
Lots of things cause cancer.
 Attack the character of your
opponent: Anyone who tried to
educate or legislate against
tobacco was simply trying to create
a “nanny state.”
Who Helped Big Tobacco?
 Philip Morris hired PR giant Burson-Marsteller
 Strategy: Mobilize smokers to “fight for their rights”
 Tactic: Created the National Smokers Alliance

“Astroturf,” not “grassroots”
 Philip Morris hired PR giant APCO Worldwide in 1993
 Strategy: Attack scientific validity
between cancer and
 Tactic: Proposed TASSC (The
Advancement of Sound Science
Coalition)
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
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Be a credible source for reporters
Encourage public to question science
Mobilize support
Develop “information”
of links
secondhand smoke
Using Tobacco Techniques to “Sell”
Climate Change Confusion
 American Petroleum Institute (API) created the
“Global Climate Science Communication Action Plan”
 Goal: Not to promote an understanding of science but to spread
uncertainty
 Spokespersons challenged climate scientists
 Linked messages to “sound science”
 Victory?
 When the public accepted “uncertainties” as “conventional wisdom”
Selling ICE
 PR firm helped WFA, NCA & EEI create “Information Council for
the Environment” (ICE) in 1991.
 Purposes: “To reposition global warming as a theory (not fact)”
and to “supply alternative facts to support the suggestion that
global warming will be good.”
 Strategies


Went to small U.S. markets heavily
dependent on coal-fired electricity.
Focus group messages:


“Some say the Earth is warming. Some
also said the Earth was flat.”
“If the Earth is getting warmer, why is
the frost line moving south?”
Techniques to Create Doubt
 Using think tanks
 Exxon invested more than $20 million in think tanks that questioned whether
climate change was sound science
 UCF & Oklahoma State researchers found: between 1972-2005, 92.2% of books
promoting skepticism were published/written by conservative think tanks
 Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) – CEI commercial
 Denial by the pound
 Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine
 Founded by chemist Arthur Robinson, with six listed faculty (2 sons, 2 dead)
 Produces survivalist/creationist home school curricula; no ongoing climate
research
 “Oregon Petition”
 More than 34,000 signatures (not all scientists)
 Misled as coming from the National Academy of Sciences
Framing the Discussion
 Frank Luntz, Republican pollster and adviser
 2002 “Straight Talk” memo for Republican candidates
 Promote uncertainty: “The scientific debate remains open”
 Be committed to “sound science”
 Say “energy exploration,” not “oil drilling”
 “Climate change” = less frightening
than “global warming”
Need More Proof?
 DeSmogBlog.com
 Dr. John Abraham, University of St. Thomas , Minnesota
(http://www.stthomas.edu/engineering/jpabraham/)
 “Climate Cover-Up”