Transcript Introduction to the Prairies

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
ON THE PRAIRIE
Mandy Guinn, Kerry Hartman, Jen Janecek-Hartman
What is the IPCC?
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IPPC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Was formed in 1988
 By the UN Environmental Programme (UNEP) and
World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
 To provide objective information about climate change
to the public and to policy-makers
 Made up of scientists and experts from all over the
world
 Promotes the UN goals of human development.
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www.un.org/works/Lesson_Plans/Climate_Change_for_Social...
More Climate Change Information
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Here are several sites available to learn about
climate.
 http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/
 http://www.noaa.gov
 http://www.ucar.edu
Current Overall Climate Change Effects
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IPCC has documented the following:
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Warming of climate system is unequivocal:
 Now evident from observations of increases in global average air and
ocean temperatures
 Linear warming trend over the 50 years from 1956 to 2005
(0.13[0.10 to 0.16]°C per decade) is nearly twice that for the 100
years from 1906 to 2005.

Widespread melting of snow and ice
 Satellite data since 1978 show that annual average Arctic sea ice
extent has shrunk by 2.7 [2.1 to 3.3]% per decade, with larger
decreases in summer of 7.4 [5.0 to 9.8]% per decade.
 Mountain glaciers and snow cover on average have declined in both
hemispheres. Maximum areal extent of seasonally frozen ground
has decreased by about 7% in the Northern Hemisphere since
1900, with decreases in spring of up to 15%.
Current Overall Climate Change Effects
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Rising global average sea level
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Global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 [1.3 to
2.3]mm per year over 1961 to 2003 and at an average rate of
about 3.1 [2.4 to 3.8]mm per year from 1993 to 2003.

Whether this faster rate for 1993 to 2003 reflects decadal
variation or an increase in the longer term trend is unclear.

Since 1993 thermal expansion of the oceans has contributed
about 57% of the sum of the estimated individual contributions to
the sea level rise.

Decreases in glaciers and ice caps contributing about 28% and
losses from the polar ice sheets contributing the remainder.

From 1993 to 2003 the sum of these climate contributions is
consistent within uncertainties with the total sea level rise that is
directly observed.
Current Overall Climate Change Effects
2007 IPCC Report
How Might Climate Change Effect the
Prairies?
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Warming in western mountains is projected to cause decreased
snowpack, more winter flooding and reduced summer flows,
exacerbating competition for over-allocated water resources.
 Prairies depend water from snowpack to feed rivers in region
In the early decades of century, moderate climate change is
projected to increase aggregate yields of rain-fed agriculture by 5
to 20%, with important variability among regions.
Major challenges are projected for crops that are near the warm
end of their suitable range or which depend on highly utilized
water resources.
How Might Climate Change Effect the
Prairies?
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Earlier timing of spring events, such as leaf-unfolding, bird
migration and egg-laying; and upward shifts in ranges in
plant and animal species.
Based on satellite observations since the early 1980s, there
is high confidence that there has been a trend towards
earlier ‘greening’ of vegetation in the spring linked to
longer thermal growing seasons due to recent warming.
Cities that currently experience heat waves are expected to
be further challenged by an increased number, intensity and
duration of heat waves during the course of the century, with
potential for adverse health impacts.
How do Scientists Make Predictions
about Future Climate Scenarios?
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Scientists use multiple estimates of future
GHG (green house gas emissions) to develop
scenarios or potential patterns of climate changes.
They estimate low, medium and high emissions.
These are compared to historical levels of emissions
and resulting global temp increases to make
predictions about a range of future impacts.
Example of Model Used
Activities
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Students may choose from the following list:
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Prepare a short presentation or report on how scientist use studies to
discuss current impacts of climate change on the prairies.
Complete the Big Muddy/Drought Activities included with PowerPoint
Prepare a short presentation or report on how scientists use modeling to
predict future climate change impacts on the prairies.
Prepare a presentation or report on the climate change impacts on
prairie flora or fauna or both
Interview an Elder or Natural Resources employee to discuss climate
change impacts on your Tribe.
Review an article on climate change impacts using the provided
literature review form.
Presentations and reports will be evaluated using included rubric