Transcript Presentation - 15th TRB National Transportation Planning

Climate Change in Travel Demand
Models
presented to
12th TRB
Transportation Planning Applications Conference, May
2009, Houston, TX
presented by
Krishnan Viswanathan and Daniel Beagan
Cambridge Systematics, Inc.
May 18, 2009
Credit: Azmat Ali, Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International
Transportation leadership you can trust.
Presentation Outline
I - What is climate change
II - Impacts on transportation
and land use
III - Policies and measures to
mitigate climate change
IV - Incorporate climate
change in travel demand
models
Credit: Rose Fyson, Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International
1
I - What is Climate Change
Credit: Ninita Machava, Pedro Livinga,Vasco Macuácua,Rebeca Gomes,Rebeca Mavuia.
Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International
2
A Definition
Changes in the atmospheric abundance of greenhouse
gases (GHG) and aerosols, in solar radiation and in land
surface properties
Radiative forcing
Increases in global atmospheric concentrations of CO2,
methane and N2O due to human activities
The global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are
due primarily to fossil fuel use and land-use change
Methane and N2O are primarily due to agriculture
3
The Earth’s Greenhouse Effect
Source : The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation
4
GHGs and Temperature Trends
Source : Climate Change 2001 : The Scientific Basis, IPCC
5
Global and Continental Temperature Change
Source : Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis, IPCC
6
United States Temperature Change
7
II - Impacts on Transportation and Land Use
Credit: Students at Charupeeth School of Fine Art, Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International
8
Impact of Climate Change on Transportation
Climate Change
And Variability
Transportation
Decision Making
• Temperature change
• Systematic planning
• Precipitation change
• Accelerated sea
level rise
• Increased storm
surge and intensity
and investment
• Project development
• Operations
• Maintenance
• System Assessment
Transportation
Impacts
• Location
• System Design
• Emergency mgmt.
• Investment Levels
Source : Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and
Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, Phase I, FHWA
9
Impacts on Land Use and Transportation
Water Scarcity
Insurance restrictions
Increases in very hot days and heat waves
Increases in Arctic temperatures
Rising sea levels
Increases in intense precipitation events
Increases in hurricane intensity
10
Operational Impacts
Rising sea levels
• Operational Impact : More frequent interruptions to coastal and
low-lying roadway travel and rail service due to storm surges and
more severe storm surges, requiring evacuation and/or changes
in development patterns
Increases in intense precipitation events
• Operational Impact : Increases in weather-related delays and
traffic disruptions and increased flooding of evacuation routes
More frequent strong hurricanes
• Operational Impact : More frequent and potentially more
extensive emergency evacuations and more debris on roads and
rail lines
11
III - Policies and Measures to Mitigate Climate
Change
Credit: Ashley Cecil, Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International
12
Policy Recommendations
Incorporate climate change into long term capital
improvement plans, facility designs, maintenance
practices, operations, and emergency response plans
Better investment analyses and design approaches to B/C
effects of making infrastructure more robust
Better coordination and communication between various
agencies
Include needs of transportation decision makers in
climate change research
13
Policy Recommendations
Better integration of transportation with emergency
response and evacuation plans
Knowledge sharing of best practices across various
institutions to address impacts of climate change
Incentives to mitigate climate change impacts
14
Policy Recommendations
Include climate change as a factor in the development of
public-sector, long-range transportation plans; eliminate
any perception that such plans should be limited to 20–30
years; and require collaboration in plan development with
agencies responsible for land use, environmental
protection, and natural resource management to foster
more integrated transportation–land use decision making
Source : TRB Special Report 290 : Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation
15
Mitigation Analysis
Models should provide insights into changes in travel
behavior due to measures taken to mitigate climate
change
The models should be able to answer questions such as
• Impacts of carbon taxes on travel behavior
• Impacts of congestion pricing
• Impacts of changes in transit service
• Impacts of changes to land use
Models should support mitigation policy options
16
IV - Incorporate Climate change in Travel
Demand Models
Credit: Gukzik Lau, Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International
17
The Modeling Process
Land Use
Trip Generation
Trip Distribution
Mode Choice
Traffic
Assignment
18
Climate Change in Demand Models
Climate Change
Scenario
5 to 9 F
increase
Map USGC geography
to model geography
Measure CC scenario
impacts on
sociodemographic,
physical and transportation
characteristics
19
Incorporate
into TD model
process
Land Use Models
Changes due to
Climate Change in
• Current land use
• Zoning plans
• Environmental
and regulatory
Constraints
• Developable
areas
20
Land Use Models
Model changes
•Reduction in
control totals
• Increase in
transportation
costs
• Loss of
employment
Variability in
• Households/TAZ
• Employment/TAZ
• Attraction
Locations
Trip Generation Models
Changes due to
Climate Change in
• Households/TAZ
• Employment/TAZ
• Special
generators
21
Trip Generation
Models
Model Changes
•Reduction in trip
rates
• Increase in
residential
density
Variability in
• Trip Ps and As
Trip Distribution Models
Changes due to
Climate Change in
• Trip Ps and As
• Skims
• Trip Lengths
Trip Distribution
Models
Model Changes
• Changes in
friction factors
• Network
availability
• Access Availability
22
Variability in
• Trip OD pairs
Mode Choice Models
Changes due to
Climate Change in
• Vehicle Availability
• Skims
• Destination
access
• Land use changes
23
Mode Choice
Models
Model Changes
• More joint trips
• Increases in vehicle
operating costs
• More transit
crowding
Variability in
• Mode Shares
• Mode OD pairs
Assignment Models
Changes due to
Climate Change in
• Mode OD pairs
• Skims
• Network availability
Assignment
Models
Model Changes
• Restricted capacity
• Speed restrictions
• increased transit
networks
24
Variability in
• VMT, VHT
• Congested speeds
and times
• total vehicles on
Network
• GHG estimation
Summary
Transportation planners and modelers need to be at the
climate change table
The impacts of climate change should be included in
development or testing of alternatives during the LRTP
cycle
The process proposed here offers a relatively simple way
to include climate change in travel demand models
The model should provide insights into changes in travel
behavior due to climate change mitigation strategies
25
Climate Change in Travel Demand
Models
presented to
12th TRB
Transportation Planning Applications Conference, May
2009, Houston, TX
presented by
Krishnan Viswanathan and Daniel Beagan
Cambridge Systematics, Inc.
May 18, 2009
Credit: Azmat Ali, Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International
Transportation leadership you can trust.