Transcript Juan Pulhin - global change SysTem for Analysis, Research

CLIMATE CHANGE AND
WATERSHED COMMUNITIES
Methodologies for Assessing Social
Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation
(Focus on Participatory Approaches)
Juan M. Pulhin (AS 21)
University of the Philippines Los Banos
AIACC Asia-Pacific Regional Workshop
25-27 March 2003
Outline of Presentation
 Introduction
 Overview of AS21
 Social science methodologies for integrated
climate change assessment
 Challenges
Introduction
Despite the anticipated impacts
of climate change on both the natural
and human systems…
…there exists a
knowledge gap in
terms of methodologies
and tools for integrated
assessment of climate
change particularly in
watershed areas…
Introduction
…less developed is the application of
appropriate social science research techniques
that engaged watershed communities
in conducting integrated assessment of climate
change
Rationale for Stakeholder
Participation in the Research Process
 Ideological – participation as basic
human right
 Part of the awareness-building/
advocacy slant of the research
– generate understanding (public education)
– interests and support
 Facilitates identification and
implementation of adaptation strategies
at various levels
Integrated Assessment of Climate
Change Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability in Watershed Areas
and Communities in Southeast Asia
General Methodology of the study
GCM Climate
Scenario
National Climate
Scenario
Land use and cover
Change in the
Watershed
Climate
Variability/
Extremes and
Current Coping
Mechanisms
Current Vulnerability
Assessment
Future
Vulnerability
Assessment
Future Adaptation
Assessment
Impacts on water,
forests and
communities
•
Methodologies for Assessing Social Impacts,
Vulnerability and Adaptation
1) Awareness generation among various stakeholders
Methodologies for Assessing Social
Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation
2. Gathering secondary information
• Demographic characteristics
• Socio-economic characteristics
• Geographic factors
• Governance structure
Tentative listing of secondary information
(Table 1)
3. Field study
• Use combination of participatory techniques and
household survey
• Enable researches to validate the reliability of
existing secondary information using triangulation
method
Methods:
a. Field reconnaissance
b. Orientation workshops with various stakeholders
b. Participatory vulnerability and adaptation
assessment in selected barangays (Table 2)
Figure 1: Vulnerability profile for Delanta Dawunt, Ethiopia
4. Assessment of future climate change impacts,
vulnerability and adaptation.
• Using the different
climate change scenarios
developed through
MAGIC-SCENGEN
• With the aid of other
models such as CLUE
and VIC models
• Using the results of
present vulnerability and
adaptation assessment
5. Presentation of research results and validation
• To different stakeholders concerned to validate
findings and for them to be able to anticipate and
respond appropriately to future climate change
• Serve as a form of
advocacy to generate
interest and support
among various sectors
on climate change
initiatives and strengthen
the research-policy link
in this area
Challenges
 Methodological/technical concerns
– Availability of time-series data and maps
– Compatibility and reliability of available
secondary socio-economic information
– Combining community mapping and GIS
techniques
– Integrating different socioeconomic variables
into the different models
– Integrating the macro-micro scale and
quantitative-qualitative analyses
Challenges
 Institutional concerns
– Continuing engagement of the different
stakeholders at varying levels during the
research process
– Capability building both of the research team
members and other stakeholders
– Strengthening science-policy link to generate
interests and continuing support
THANK YOU!!!