Transcript Occasion - hvonstorch.de

BSSC 2011 St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011
Regional Climate Change Assessments
as a Service to Society:
The BACC Example
Marcus Reckermann
Hans-Jörg Isemer
Hans von Storch
Anders Omstedt
and the BACC Author Team
Overview
1. Examples and principles for BACC-type assessments
2. BACC results (published 2008)
3. BACC 2
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011
www.baltex-research.eu
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Why regional climate change assessments?
Why care about regional climate change?
• Global assessment done by IPCC (AR4 from 2007)
• Climate changes NOT uniformly around the world
• Impacts differ greatly around the world
• Relevant political decisions are taken locally (adaptation)
• Public and policy makers need scientifc information
• Information scattered in numerous publications, largely difficult to access
(language), let alone for non-scientists
→ Regional Climate Offices
→ Regional Climate Change Assessments
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011
www.baltex-research.eu
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BACC-like assessments
BACC (2005-2008)
Climate Report for the Metropolitan Region of Hamburg (2007-2010)
BACC II (2009-2013)
2
NOSCCA North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (2010-2014)
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011
www.baltex-research.eu
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Organisation
BALTEX Science Steering Group and Scientific community
BACC Science Steering Committee
Lead authors
selects
Draft chapter outlines and select
Contributing authors
1st draft
Similar to IPCC
process but no
government review
Expert review
2nd draft
Expert review
Strictly scientific
Final draft
Management and Coordination ( BALTEX Secretariat )
The BACC process
Editing and Formatting
Publication
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011
www.baltex-research.eu
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Principles of BACC-like assessments
Principles…
• Writing team of experts from different expertises, lead authors responsible for grand topics (IPCC-style)
Lead authors recruit contributing authors with special expertise
• Exclusive use of „current legitimate knowledge“… What is that?
- published and publicly available
- peer reviewed articles from scientific journals
- institutional reports
- conference proceedings
- No NGO or private company publications (e.g. Greenpeace, WWF, Shell, Munich-Re etc.)
- No unpublished results
• Objectivity: No mixing of personal views, agendas or missions to be mixed up with the scientific status;
consensus view to be reached if possible
• If consensus cannot be reached, this must be stated („we agree that we disagree“), and conflicting views
should be described
• Minority views should not be ignored if they are scientifically plausible
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011
www.baltex-research.eu
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BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea basin BACC
BACC Book published in January 2008
BACCground
• Regional climate change assessments needed (IPCC has been doing global
climate change assessments since 1990)
• Vast amount of material available in the Baltic Sea basin (also partly inaccessible
previousely).
Purpose
• to provide the scientific community (and the public) with an assessment of
ongoing and future climate change in the Baltic Sea Basin
• is done by reviewing and assessing published scientific knowledge on climate
change in the Basin
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84 authors from 13 countries contributed
> 2000 references, ~ 10 % non-English literature
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Stakeholder involvement: Helsinki Commission (HELCOM) involved
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011
www.baltex-research.eu
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BACC
Chapter 1
Introduction and Summary
Lead Authors: Hans von Storch, Anders Omstedt
Chapter 2
Past and current climate change
Lead Authors: Raino Heino, Heikki Tuomenvirta, Valery Vuglinskiy, Bo Gustafsson
Chapter 3
Projections of future anthropogenic climate change
Lead Author: L. Phil Graham
Chapter 4
Climate-related change in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems
Lead Author: Benjamin Smith
Chapter 5
Climate-related marine ecosystem change
Lead Authors: Joachim W. Dippner, Ilppo Vuorinen
Annexes
Various authors provide up-to-date background “textbook” knowledge on all aspects of BACC
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011
www.baltex-research.eu
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BACC
Past and current climate change
Air Temperature
Changes in Baltic Sea basin nearsurface air temperature for the
period 1871-2004 relative to 19611990
• Significant positive trend with regional and seasonal variations
• Warming trend in the north: + 1 ºC; in the south: + 0.7 ºC per 100 yrs (basin: + 0.85 ºC)
• Warming trend is largest in spring
• Regional change is slightly larger than on the global scale (IPCC-AR4: + 0.74 ºC per 100 yrs)
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011
www.baltex-research.eu
9
BACC
Past and current climate change
Precipitation
Changes of precipitation over the Baltic Sea basin as
ratios of the period 1976-2000 relative to 1951-1975
Light green = Precipitation decrease
Dark green = Precipitation increase
Large spatial and seasonal variations of precipitation,
but trends towards…
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More rain in winter (especially in the south)
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More rain in spring (especially in the north)
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Less rain in summer (especially in the south)
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Overall slight increase
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011
www.baltex-research.eu
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BACC
Past and current climate change
19.6.
River ice
Tornionjoki
Break-up (date)
9.6.
30.5.
20.5.
10.5.
30.4.
20.4.
1693
1743
1793
1843
1893
1943
1993
Year
Earlier ice break up in Tornionjoki river (Finland)
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011
www.baltex-research.eu
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BACC
Past and current climate change
Wind and Storminess
Number of low pressure systems (p<980 hPa) in Stockholm and Lund
There is NO trend in windiness or storminess over the Baltic Sea Basin!
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011
www.baltex-research.eu
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BACC
Past and current climate change
Sea ice
Winter 2007/2008
mildest ever recorded
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011
www.baltex-research.eu
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BACC
Projections of future anthropogenic climate change
Air Temperature
Winter
RCM: HIRHAM
RCM projection for 20712100 relative to 19611990
(A2 scenario)
RCM: RCAO
GCM: HadAM3H
GCM: ECHAM4/OPYC
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011
www.baltex-research.eu
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BACC
Projections of future anthropogenic climate change
Air Temperature
Air Temperature
Animation
RCM projection for
2071-2100 relative
to 1961-1990
(A2 scenario)
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011
www.baltex-research.eu
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BACC
Projections of future anthropogenic climate change
Precipitation
Precipitation
Animation
RCM projection
for 2071-2100
relative to 19611990
(A2 scenario)
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011
www.baltex-research.eu
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BACC
Projections of future anthropogenic climate change
Total riverine
discharge
to the Baltic Sea
RCAO projections for
2071-2100 relative to
1961-1990
Discharge peaks come
earlier in the year
Overall amounts
increased
Lower salinities
expected
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011
www.baltex-research.eu
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BACC
Projections of future anthropogenic climate change
Sea ice
Mean number of ice days simulated by RCAO
Present winter
For the period 2071-2100
using the A2 emission
scenario
For the period 2071-2100
using the B2 emission
scenario
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011
www.baltex-research.eu
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BACC
Terrestrial ecosystems
The expected future warming is associated to a possibly accelerated continuation
of the present trends in
(i) Earlier spring phenological phases,
(ii) Northward species shifts
(iii) Increased growth and vigour of vegetation
Terrestrial ecosystems in the south are projected to
be a carbon source by the end of the century
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011
www.baltex-research.eu
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BACC
Impacts on marine ecosystems
… increase of temperature…
… decrease of salinity…
•
•
•
•
•
• Osmotic stress
• Shift in species composition (phyto–
& zooplankton)
• Egg survival
• Food quality for fish (growth rate)
• Distribution of benthos
• Reduction of fitness
• Invading species
Higher metabolic rates
Impact on acclimation capacity
Reduce the general fitness
Reduce enzyme activities
Shift in species composition
(phytoplankton)
• Enhanced cyanobacteria blooms
… reduction in sea ice…
• Ringed seal survival
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011
www.baltex-research.eu
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BACC II: An update to BACC to be published in 2014
1st BACC II Lead Author Team
Meeting in Gothenburg, Sweden
23-24 November 2010
2nd BACC II Lead Author Team
Meeting in Hamburg, Germany
28-29 March 2011
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011
www.baltex-research.eu
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BACC II: An update to BACC to be published in 2014
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Science Steering Group constituted mostly from BACC I Lead Authors
New lead authors and contributing authors (23 to date)
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New in BACC II
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Past climate variability: Holocene (10.000 yr) and historical time frame (1000 yr)
Sea level change
Socio-economic impacts: Agriculture and forestry, Urban complexes,
Fisheries and aquaculture
Attributing causes of regional climate change:
 Global warming, aerosols (natural and pollutants), land cover and resource
management
„Summary brochure for policy makers and the public“
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011
www.baltex-research.eu
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Value for the managing of scientific knowledge
Value for society of BACC-type assessment reports
•
Overview over the current conensus (and dissensus) view
over the current state of research for
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scientists
stakeholders
public
Go to our websites
www.baltex-research.eu/BACC2
thebaccblog.blogspot.com
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011
www.baltex-research.eu
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Thank you!
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011
www.baltex-research.eu
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