Transcript SoE 2011 - Atmosphere chapter overview

SoE 2011 – Atmosphere Chapter - Overview
This presentation is one of a series of Australia State of the
Environment 2011 (SoE 2011) presentations given by the
SoE Committee members and departmental staff following
the release of the SoE 2011.
This material is provided as an overview and the full report
should be referred to for understanding the context of this
information.
For more information please refer to:
http://www.environment.gov.au/soe/indext.html
Or contact the SoE team via email:
[email protected]
www.environment.gov.au/soe
New cover page
Presentation on SoE 2011 Atmosphere Chapter
Photo: Aerial view of the Pilbara, by Andrew Griffiths, Lensaloft
www.environment.gov.au/soe
State of the Environment reporting
 A report on the Australian environment must be tabled in
Parliament every five years
 No current regulations regarding scope, content or process
 All reports so far written by independent committees
www.environment.gov.au/soe
Purpose of SoE 2011
Provide relevant and useful information on
environmental issues to the public and decisionmakers...
… to raise awareness and support more informed
environmental management decisions …
… leading to more sustainable use and effective
conservation of environmental assets.
www.environment.gov.au/soe
State of the Environment 2011 Committee
Chair
Tom Hatton (Director, CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country)
Members
Steven Cork (research ecologist and futurist)
Peter Harper (Deputy Australian Statistician)
Rob Joy (School of Global Studies, Social Science & Planning, RMIT)
Peter Kanowski (Fenner School of Environment & Society, ANU)
Richard Mackay (heritage specialist, Godden Mackay Logan)
Neil McKenzie (Chief, CSIRO Land and Water)
Trevor Ward (marine and fisheries ecologist)
Barbara Wienecke – ex officio (Australian Antarctic Division, DSEWPaC)
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What’s new in 2011?
 Improved relevance to decision makers
 More detailed information
 Discussion of the major drivers of change
 Wide range of credible resources used in the analyses
 Report-card style assessments of condition, pressures and
management effectiveness
 Discussions of current resilience and future risks
 Outlooks
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Quality and credibility
 Independence – written by an independent committee with
relevant expertise, tasked with advocating for ‘accurate, robust
and meaningful environmental reporting and identification of
policy issues, but not for any particular policy position’
 Authors sought best available evidence from credible sources
 Extensive consultation
 Workshops to determine consensus in expert opinion where
evidence low
 Transparency about quality of evidence and level of consensus
 Peer reviewed (47+ reviewers of chapters and supplementary materials)
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SoE 2011 Products
Full report – hard copy and online
 Summary with 17 headlines
 Nine theme chapters – each with key findings
 Report cards
In-Brief – hard copy and online
 50 page summary of full report
Additional online materials
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Commissioned reports
Workshop reports
Additional tables and figures
Peer review information
www.environment.gov.au/soe
www.environment.gov.au/soe
www.environment.gov.au/soe
Assessment summaries in the report
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Drivers chapter – context for rest of SoE
 How are a
changing
climate,
population
growth and
economic
growth creating
pressures on
our
environment?
www.environment.gov.au/soe
SoE 2011 Headlines
 17 headlines
in summary
chapter give a
high level
overview of
the big issues
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Key Findings (in theme chapters)
 ‘key findings’
give an
overview of
more specific
conclusions
for each
theme
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What is the general state of the environment?
 Much of Australia is in good condition shape or improving

Wind erosion has decreased

Some major threats to vegetation cover are lessening

Water consumption has fallen considerably in recent years

Many urban air pollutants are on the decline

Use of public transport is on the rise
 Other parts are in poor condition or deteriorating

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing billions of tonnes of ice a year

Soil acidification and pests and weeds are affecting large areas of the
continent

Our natural and cultural heritage continues to be threatened
www.environment.gov.au/soe
Drivers of environmental change
 The principal drivers of pressures on Australia’s
environment—and its future condition—are climate variability
and change, population growth and economic growth
 It is likely that we are already seeing the effects of climate
change in Australia
 The Australian economy is projected to grow by 2.7% per year
until 2050
 Under the base scenario, Australia’s population of 22.2 million
people in 2010 is projected to grow to 35.9 million by 2050
 We have opportunities to decouple population and economic
growth from pressure on our environment
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Persistent pressures on our environment
 Past decisions and practices have left ongoing impacts on
our environment

Introduction of feral animals and weeds

Land clearing

Pollution

Unsustainable water resource management

Intense harvest of fish stocks

Lack of integrated and supported management
 Our changing climate, and growing population and
economy, are now confronting us with new challenges
www.environment.gov.au/soe
www.environment.gov.au/soe
About the atmosphere chapter in SoE 2011:
 What it is: a two part report, the first looking at the state of
climate and climate change, and the second at ambient air
quality and other atmospheric issues
 A 122 page assessment of state and trends, pressures, risks
and resilience, management effectiveness and outlooks for
Australia’s atmosphere
 Includes over 65 figures, tables and images, 11 summary
assessment tables, and more than 200 references
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Key findings
 Earth is warming
 Large step-changes in climate may occur
 It is likely we are already seeing changes in Australia’s
variable climate
 Major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are urgently
needed nationally and internationally
 We will need both a national approach and approaches at the
state and territory level to mitigate and adapt to climate
change
www.environment.gov.au/soe
Key findings continued...
 Despite the success of the Montreal
Protocol in controlling ozone depleting
substances (ODSs), depletion of
stratospheric ozone will continue for
some decades.
 Ambient air quality in Australia’s major
urban centres is generally good, but
the impact of air quality on health is
still a matter of serious concern.
www.environment.gov.au/soe
Earth is warming
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State of Australia’s climate: temperature changes
1970–2010
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State of Australia’s climate: rainfall changes 1970–2010
www.environment.gov.au/soe
The millennium drought: rainfall deficiencies
1 April 1997–31 March 2010
www.environment.gov.au/soe
.....and the drought breaks:
rainfall from 1 March 2010 to 28 February 2011
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Pressures affecting Australia’s climate
“Since the start of the industrial era (about 1750), the
overall effect of human activities on climate has been a
warming influence. The human impact on climate
during this era greatly exceeds that due to known
changes in natural processes, such as solar changes
and volcanic eruptions.”
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2006
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Pressures affecting Australia’s climate: GHGs
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Greenhouse gas emissions per person
www.environment.gov.au/soe
Fuel mix contributing to total primary energy supply, 2008
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Effects of climate change on human health
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Vulnerability to climate change aggregated for key sectors in the Australia and
New Zealand region, allowing for current coping range and adaptive capacity
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Assessment summary — pressures affecting
Australia’s climate
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Assessment summary — effectiveness of climate
change management
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Resilience of Australia’s climate
 Significant global climate change has typically occurred over
thousands of years, rather than over decades or centuries
 The scale of human activities is now challenging Earth’s short-
term resilience and driving change in the global climate at
rates unprecedented in recent geological history
 In the context of its highly developed economy and robust
system of governance, Australia is well placed to adapt to
climate change BUT
 Australia is significantly vulnerable at relatively low levels of
temperature rise in key areas
www.environment.gov.au/soe
Risks to Australia’s climate
 Warmer and drier conditions over
much of southern Australia are
likely to lead to reduced soil
moisture
 Extreme events, such as floods,
droughts, heatwaves and fires, are
likely to increase in frequency
and/or severity
www.environment.gov.au/soe
Current and emerging risks to Australia’s climate
www.environment.gov.au/soe
Australia’s capacity to adapt
Our capacity to adapt to a changing climate will depend on:

the rate of change

the degree of exposure to the effects of change, which will
vary geographically and from sector to sector, and
between different groups in society

the strength and diversity of the economy

our capacity to innovate and to change our behaviour

our ability to expand our knowledge base and apply that
knowledge in planning and decision-making

a willingness to accept uncertainty and not to use it as a
reason for postponing necessary action.
www.environment.gov.au/soe
Ambient air quality and other atmospheric issues
Part two of the atmosphere chapter deals with aspects other than
climate:

stratospheric ozone

ambient air quality

indoor air quality
www.environment.gov.au/soe
Stratospheric ozone: state and trends
“..the atmospheric abundances of nearly all major
Ozone Depleting Substances that were initially
controlled under the Montreal Protocol are declining.
Nevertheless, ozone depletion will continue for many
more decades because several key ODSs last a
long time in the atmosphere after emissions end”
(World Meteorological Organisation Scientific assessment of
Ozone depletion, 2010)
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Effect of the Montreal Protocol on levels of ozone
depleting substances in the atmosphere
www.environment.gov.au/soe
Depth of the stratospheric ozone layer: the ozone hole
over Antarctica
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State and trends of Australia’s atmosphere –
ambient air quality
 The main focus of public concern over air pollution is its short-
term and long-term effects on human health
 Urban air pollution is a significant cause of death and illness in
the community (one estimate of close to 3000 deaths due to
urban air pollution in 2003)
 Two-thirds of these deaths were attributable to long-term
exposure to air pollutants, with the elderly most affected.
 A range of adverse health effects is associated with air
pollution
www.environment.gov.au/soe
Causes of approx 3000 deaths attributed to long-term
exposure to urban air pollution, 2003
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Health effects and populations at risk from air pollutants
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National air quality standards
 In 1998, the Australian and state and territory governments
adopted a set of national air quality standards—the
National Environment Protection (Ambient Air Quality)
Measure (AAQ NEPM).
 Standards cover the six most common air pollutants (‘criteria
pollutants’)—carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur
dioxide, ozone, lead and particulate matter smaller than
10 micrometres (PM10), which can be inhaled directly into the
lungs (since expanded to include fine particulate matter
smaller than 2.5 micrometres (PM2.5)
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The air quality index
www.environment.gov.au/soe
Applying a graded report-card approach to Australia’s
urban air quality (example)
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Pressures affecting stratospheric ozone, ambient air
quality and indoor air quality: an assessment
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Management effectiveness: stratospheric ozone
 Good understanding of the issues. Management
considered very effective.
Trend
 Planning, inputs and processes to manage ozone
depleting substances all rated very effective.
Trend
 Outputs and outcomes of management to control
ODSs considered very effective.
Trend
www.environment.gov.au/soe
Management effectiveness: pollution
 Management of industrial point sources, diffuse motor
vehicular sources is rated very effective
 Management of diffuse commercial and domestic
sources is rated effective
 Management of indoor air quality and of diffuse pollution
from planned burning is considered partially effective,
planning around indoor air quality is rated ineffective
 Recent trends for management of atmospheric pollution are
all rated stable
or improving
www.environment.gov.au/soe
Resilience of Australia’s atmosphere
 Our urban airsheds are highly resilient,
air quality returning to normal as local
conditions change
BUT
 Human resilience to the effects of
prolonged or recurring exposure to air
pollutants is limited
www.environment.gov.au/soe
Current and emerging risks to Australia’s atmosphere for
stratospheric ozone, ambient and indoor air quality
www.environment.gov.au/soe
Outlook for Australia’s atmosphere: direct effects of
pressures on climate
 By 2030, projections show average temperatures rising by
0.6–1.5ºC, additional to the existing rise of around 0.7ºC since
1960
 By 2070, if growth in GHG emissions continues in line with
past trends, projected warming will be in the range of 2.2–
5.0ºC
 Southern Australia is likely to experience reduced winter rain,
and spring rainfall declines in southern and eastern areas. In
south-west Western Australia, reductions in autumn rainfall
are likely, together with the existing decline in winter rain.
Northern Australia is likely to experience an increase in
annual and summer rainfall
www.environment.gov.au/soe
Outlook for Australia’s atmosphere: stratospheric ozone,
ambient and indoor air quality
 Thanks to the Montreal Protocol’s influence in controlling
ozone depleting substances, the stratospheric ozone layer
is expected to recover to 1980 benchmark levels by around
mid-century
 The outlook for Australia’s urban air quality is generally
good
 There are limited Australian data on which to assess the
outlook for indoor air quality, but some grounds for
suggesting an improving trend
www.environment.gov.au/soe
Other SoE 2011 content related to Atmosphere
 Atmosphere and climate have links to all other themes in
SoE 2011, but climate change in particular is recognised as
a principle driver of Australia’s environment
www.environment.gov.au/soe
Intentions and impacts of SoE 2011...
 Based on available information and expert opinion drawn from
sources that are referenced in the report
 Was designed to raise awareness and assist decision-makers
 Highlights current issues that will require management
responses to influence projected trends
 Provides critical information, but can support change only if
decision-makers consider and use it
www.environment.gov.au/soe
For more information
email: [email protected]
To order copies
email: [email protected]
phone: 1800 803 772 or read it online:
www.environment.gov.au/soe
www.environment.gov.au/soe
Photo: Aerial view of the Pilbara, by Andrew Griffiths, Lensaloft