Transcript METAP Policy Note

Climate Change Adaptation
in the Water Sector in the
Middle East & North Africa Region:
A Review of Main Issues
PAP/RAC Workshop
Sardinia
May 19-21, 2008
Fadi M. Doumani
METAP
Content

What is Climate Change (CC)?

What is the MENA Water Sector State (WS)?

How Will CC Affect the MENA WS State?

What are the Suggested Responses?
What is Climate Change?

CC is any long-term significant change in the
average temperature of the Earth's near-surface
air and oceans that a given region experiences

CC is human-made: science established a
causal effect between the acceleration of Green
House Gas (GHG) emissions and CC effects in
the IPCC 4

GHG (CO2, CH4 and N2O) emissions shot
past a safe level of 350 ppm by the end of the
80s and stand at 385 ppm per volume in the
Earth’s atmosphere
What is Climate Change?

Six scenarios with different assumptions were
developed to simulate GHG projections and
their effects on CC until 2100
Source: IPCC 4 (2007).
What is Climate Change?

Main GHG emission effects on CC are:
-Average global surface temperature will likely
rise between 0.6° to 4° Celsius by 2100
Source: IPCC 4 (2007).
What is Climate Change?
-Increases in the amount of precipitation are very
likely in high-latitudes, while decreases are likely
in most subtropical land and semi-arid regions
(by as much as about 20% in the A1B scenario in
2100
-In semi-arid areas, droughts will increase and
runoffs will decrease
-The ice cap will shrink and sea level will rise by
a likely range between 0.18 and 0.59 meter by
2100
What is the MENA Water Sector State?

3 aspects of the water sector are covered:
-Renewable Water (RW) Availability in 2004
-Water Use in 2004
-Water Services in 2004
 But first, a definition of RW availability:
-Water security: ≥ 1,700 m3 pc pa of RW
-Water stress: ≥ 1,000 and < 1,700 m3 pc pa of RW
-Water scarcity: ≥ 500 and < 1,000 m3 pc pa of RW
-Water absolute scarcity: < 500 m3 pc pa of RW
What is the MENA Water Sector State?
RW Availability. MENA region:
 Most water stressed region in the world (1,100 m3)
 3 water groups: arid, hyper-arid and transboundary
R
W
RW PC PA
P
C
P
A
Source: FAO-AQUASTAT (2002) compiled in World Bank (2007a).
What is the MENA Water Sector State?
RW Availability. MENA region is characterized by
 Aridity, desertification and coastal density; and
by
Source: FAO-AQUASTAT (2002) compiled in World Bank (2007a).
What is the MENA Water Sector State?

low precipitation, high evaporation, and
increased droughts, flooding and weather
extreme
People Affected by Floods, Droughts and Extreme Weather
Flood
MENA Region 1988-07 (000')
Drought
Extreme Weather
People Affected
(log scale)
1,000
10
2008
2006
2007
2005
2003
2004
2001
2002
2000
1998
Year
Source: FAO-AQUASTAT (2002) compiled in World Bank (2007a); and Author.
1999
1996
1997
1994
1995
1993
1991
1992
1990
1988
1989
0
What is the MENA Water Sector State?
Water Use. MENA region is characterized by:
 Highest RW withdrawal region (75%); and by
Water Use Share
Total Water Withdrawal to Total Renewable
Source: FAO-AQUASTAT (2002) compiled in World Bank (2007a).
What is the MENA Water Sector State?

An important share allocated to the agriculture
sector (±85%) with low value-added GDP per
km3 (US$ 701) and low yield
 An increased reliance on desalination to
augment water supply
Sector Water Use
Source: FAO-AQUASTAT (2002) compiled in World Bank (2007a).
What is the MENA Water Sector State?
Water Services are characterized by:
 Inadequate governance (accountability, planning,
financing, organizational capacity, etc.) affecting
both access (87%) and water-related diseases (22
death per 100,000 from diarrhea mainly in rural)
 Poor utility performance (water losses between
30 and 60% and operating cost coverage ratio less
than 1; and
 Low agricultural water requirement ratio that
measures the agricultural efficiency and ranges
between 0.3 and 0.5.
How Will CC Affect the MENA WS State?
Impact on 5
Categories
but we will
focus on
water
and health
Source: IPCC 4 (2007).
How Will CC Affect the MENA WS State?

The CC effects in the MENA region by 2050 are
(figures should be used with care):
-Higher temperatures by +2.5 degree C
-Lower precipitation by >-10.5%
-Lower runoffs between -20 and -30%
-Sea level rise by 0.39 meter.
-Accelerating drought cycle especially in NAfrica
-Burden of disease marginal increase (waterrelated, cardio-respiratory and vector-borne
diseases, malnutrition and injuries)
How Will CC Affect the MENA WS State?

Demographic growth (+2% in 2000s) will put more
pressure on RW with an urban population increasing by
93% between 1995-2050

RW pc pa will decrease by more than half to less than 550
m3 putting the region in water absolute scarcity state

Water Use: Domestic share will exceed 20% putting
additional stress on the agriculture sector

Water Services: all governance, access, efficiency and
water-related disease indicators will deteriorate
How Will CC Affect the MENA WS State?
2004 MENA RW: M 3 Per Capita
3,000
2004 RW PC
3
M per capita
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
Without CC
Arid
Hyper-Arid
2050 MENA RFW with -20% CC Effects: M 3 Per Capita
3,000
2050 RW PC
3
1,000
1,500
1,000
-
Arid
Hyper-Arid
Transboundary
Source: FAO-AQUASTAT (2002); United Nations (2007); and Author
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2050 RW PC
2,500
M per capita
2,500
M per capita
With CC
Transboundary
2050 MENA RW: M 3 Per Capita
3,000
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-
Transboundary
How Will CC Affect the MENA WS State?
Runoff Reduction by 2100
Drought Severity by 2100
Source: IPCC 4 (2007).
What are the Suggested Responses?


The MENA region public and private human,
social, capital, natural and cultural assets at
stake from future CC effects
Three responses are suggested:
-Knowledge response
-Mitigation response
-Adaptation response
What are the Suggested Responses?

Better knowledge response
-Transparent awareness campaign (proactive
media and universities) could help ensure an
inclusive and participatory CC mitigation/
adaptation planning and implementation process
-Mainstream CC in school and university
curriculum
-Adapt/set up knowledge-based CC infrastructure
(GIS, meteorological indicators, hydrological
cycle, etc.)
What are the Suggested Responses?

Better adaptation response
-MENA region contributes between 3.5 and 5%
to the global GHG emissions but the emissions
growth has outpaced all the other regions
(1995-2004)
-Opportunity to improve energy efficiency
(electricity and energy) by tapping carbon
funding mechanism and switching to abundant
renewable energies (solar and wind in some
regions)
What are the Suggested Responses?

Better mitigation response requires climateproof sector-wide water reforms by:
-Balancing water demand (water allocated to its
highest use value) and supply (e.g., drip
irrigation, water reuse, desalination) and buildin system responsive to variations
What are the Suggested Responses?
-Improving governance (e.g., integrated
planning, organization, decision-making,
management and resource mobilization),
equity, justice and preservation of the
commons
-Increasing efficiency (agriculture, domestic)
-Enhancing natural disaster and health service
preparedness
What are the Suggested Responses?

Water sector reforms could already help
contain, delay and mitigate CC effects
(Morocco has embarked on a long term
programmatic reform with the World Bank)

Looking at reducing the distortions of drivers
could also help increase the effectiveness of
water sector reforms (coherent growth strategy
that encompasses population, poverty,
urbanization, tourism and agriculture drivers)
and increase the climate-proofing efforts
Thank You for Your Valuable Time
Introduction of the Carbon Funding
of Waste Emission Presentation
Global GHG emissions (in Giga tons or billion of tons) are illustrated by compound
and sector over the 1970-2004 period.
Source: IPCC 4 (2007).