Transcript coastal settlements priorities

Given at
Open Meeting Of The Global Environmental Change Research
Community Rio De Janeiro
6-8 October, 2001
by
Carlos Rodríguez Otero, Ada Luisa Pérez Hernández, Isidro Salas García
CUBA, 2001
OBJECTIVES
TO STUDY THE RISK AND VULNERABILITY ELEMENTS IN
THE COASTAL ZONES CONSIDERING CONCENTRATED AND
DISPERSE POPULATION, FOREST AND CROP AREAS, AND
OTHER ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES
TO PROPOSE MEASURES OF ADAPTATION THAT
CONSTITUTE AN IMPORTANT TOOL FOR TERRITORIAL
CLASSIFICATION
AND
MANAGEMENT
OF THE
COASTAL ZONES IN THE DIFFERENT LEVELS OF
PHYSICAL
PLANNING:
NATIONAL,
PROVINCIAL,
MUNICIPAL AND URBAN FOR SHORT, MEDIUM AND
LONG TIMES
GEOGRAPHICAL LOCALIZATION
Area 110 861 km2
4 000 keys
6 000 km
of coasts
NATURAL AND ANTHROPICS IMPACTS ON
COASTAL ECOSYSTEMS
CLIMATE
VARIABILITY
EXTREME EVENTS
DROUGHT
FLOOD
CLIMATE
CHANGE
SEA- LEVEL RISE
HUMAN
ACTIVITIES
COASTAL ZONE DEFINITION
The area of contact between land and sea, is
scarce, vulnerable and dynamic territory, where
natural, economic, demographic, social and
environmental aspects come together
Research objective
width is varies
Coastal characteristic
COASTAL ZONE DELIMITATION
0
HIGH IMPACT SEA LEVEL RISE
12 000 m
MEDIUM AND LOW
IMPACT SEA- LEVEL
RISE
SCENARIOS CLIMATE CHANGE
(CO2 Duplication)
• AN INCREASE OF TEMPERATURE FOR THE YEAR 2100
WILL BE 1,6 - 2,5 0C
• CHANGES ON PRECIPITATIONS RATES OF 10 - 15 %
• SIMILAR ACTIVITY OF TROPYCAL CYCLONE AS
NOWADAYS
• AN INCREASING NUMBER OF COLD FRONTS DUE TO
OF ENSO EVENT
• EQUAL NUMBER OF SOUTHERN WINDS
• INCREASE OF DROUGHT PERIODS MAINLY IN THE
EASTERN REGION
SEA - LEVEL RISE IN CUBA
AVERAGE SEA- LEVEL RISE DURING
THE LAST THREE DECADES
2.9 mm/year
Projection
sensibility
year 2050
year 2100
low
8 cm
20cm
high
44cm
95cm
1 meter
STORM SURGES
Most Dangerous Sectors
STORM SURGES IN SELECTED SECTORS
Recurrent Periods
(cases/year)
.
1/100
1/50
1/20
1/10
Storm Surges High (m)
Actual
3,7
2,2
0,7
0,5
Forecasted
Scenario 1 m
3,8
2,3
0,9
0,7
Surges behavior will
increase only 4% in
forecasted scenario 1 m
RISK MAP: TROPICAL CYCLONES SURGE
FOR COASTAL SECTORS OF CUBA
Risk degree by sectors
FREQUENCY, MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION
HUMAN SETTLEMENTS SYSTEM
IN CUBA
HUMAN SETTLEMENTS SYSTEM IN CUBA IS WELL
STRUCTURED AND STUDIED, WITH 11.04 MILLION
INHABITANTS, PROJECTIONS OF THE POPULATION
INDICATE THAT ITS GROWTH TENDS TO DECREASE MAINLY
DUE TO THE DESCENT OF FECUNDITY
6834 TOTAL SETTLEMENTS
573 URBANS AND 6221 RURALS
1 MILLION INHABITANTS LIVE IN DISPERSED WAY
COASTAL SETTLEMENTS
URBAN 62 (11%of total)
1,3
MM INHABIT, 330 000 DWELLING, 12 cities
TOTAL 244
RURAL 182 (0,03 % of
total), 52000 INHABIT, 18000
DWELLING, 79 settlements with more than
200 INHABIT
DISPERSE
POPULATION
(0,003 % of total), 2974 INHABIT
Population
1992 1 410 504 inhabit
1995 1 464 054 inhabit
COASTAL SETTLEMENTS
244 settlements / 1 400 000 inhabit. / 330 000 dwellings
COASTAL SETTLEMENTS LOCATED
TOTALLY OR PARTIALLY BETWEEN
O AND 1 METER
98 SETTLEMENTS
50 000 INHABITANS
17 000 DWELLINGS
Urban
42 settlements
Rural
56 settlements
NOWADAYS THERE ARE 53 COASTAL
SETTLEMENTS REPORTING FLOODS
FOR SEA - LEVEL RISE, DUE TO
TROPICAL CYCLONES SURGE MAINLY
VULNERABILITY FACTORS
•Proximity to shoreline and coast types
•Settlement size and number of inhabitants
•Conditions and type constructive of dwellings
•Accessibility
•Population and dwellings below 1 meter high
•Economic base
CWATER QUALITY
•Technical infrastructure
LIDAD DEL AGUA
URBANOS
URBANOS
AQUEDUC
ACUED.
100
RURALS
RURALES
SEWER
ALCANT.
ELECTRICITY
50
ELECTR.
ACCESSIBILITY
ACCESO
0
POBLACION
POPULATION
ASENTAM.
SETTLEMENTS
BUENA
GOOD
REGULAR
REGULAR
MALA
BAD
STUDY CASE: Santa Cruz del Sur
DYNAMIC GROWTH
año
1999
1958
1932
1828
h
0
50
100
150
200
250
1828 1931 1932 1940 1958 1975 1999
GEOGRAPHICAL LOCALIZATION
ha
0
19
0
24
53.5
150
TOPOGRAPHY PROFILE N-S OF THE LOCATION OF SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR
216
FLOOD RISK MAP. SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR
RISK GRADE
THE SURGE WHICH
TOOK PLACE IN
1932, WAS OF 7
METERS HIGH.
NOWADAY ITS
PROBABILITY IS 1
TIME EVERY 333
YEARS
VERY HIGH
HIGH
MODERATE
R IS K
AFFECTED
A R E A (h a )
%
V E R Y H IG H
H IG H
M ODERATE
37
78
101
17
36
47
TOTAL
216
100
VULNERABLE ELEMENTS
POPULATION 17125 INHABIT, (9% BELOW 0,5 M)
DWELLINGS 4312 (GOOD AND REGULAR
TECHNICAL STATE), EMPLOYMENTS 4123
VULNERABLE CROPS IN COASTAL
MUCICIPALITIES Scenario 1m sea level rise
3200 ha <1m
FORESTS AND VULNERABLE GRASSES IN
COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES Scenario 1m sealevel rise
370000 ha <1m
COASTAL ZONE WITH DRY
ENVIROMENT
7 DRY
9 SUBHUMID ENVIRONMENT
Subzonas
Dry
Subhumid
•
•
•
55% OF COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES
132 OF 245 COASTAL SETTLEMENTS
(MOSTLY RURAL)
990, 000 INHABITANTS (1995)
Dry
Subhumid
Annual precipitation <800mm <1000mm
months of droughts
9-11
8-10
evaporation
2000/2400mm >2400mm
prec/evap.
>60
>40
CONSIDERATE FACTORS FOR THE
MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION
MEASURED
• Prospective impact by climate change and
extreme events
• Commitments territorial precedent
• Sense of ownership of coastal population
to area of residence
• Potentialities for change in land use
• Cost of the measures proposals
PLANNING SCALES
PROVINCIAL
NATIONAL
TOTAL 14
MUNICIPAL
TOTAL 169
URBAN
PHYSICAL PLANNING
ACTIVITY
 RECTOR OF
TERRITORIAL AND
URBANS PLANNING TO DIFFERENT
LEVELS AND TEMPORARY
HORIZONTS
 COORDINATES THE INVESTMENTS
LOCALIZATION
 INTEGRATES SECTORIAL AND
TERRITORIAL POLICIES
COASTAL SETTLEMENTS PRIORITIES
107
44% OF TOTAL
52% REPORT FLOODS
URBAN 43
RURAL 64
COASTAL POPULATION PRIORITIES
1 174 738 INHAB
83 % OF
TOTAL
50 000 BELOW 1 METER
STRATEGIES OF ADAPTATION
RETREAT
ACCOMMODATION
PROTECTION
ENGINEERING PROJECTS
REGULATIONS URBANS AND THE LAND USE,
BUILDING CODES AND SEVERAL LAWS
Mechanisms of execution
(administration and control) in the
territorial planning
STRATEGIES OF ADAPTATION
P R IO R IT Y
SETTLEM ENT
I
9
15219
II
9
167095
III
30
372942
IV
62
619482
TOTAL
107
1174738
IN H A B IT A N
ACCOMMODATION
72 SETTLEMENTS
TERRACES 1 METE R
AND TWO LEVELS
TWO LEVEL
FLOOD MARK
“BARBACOAS” (LOFTS)
RETREAT
(Irene hurricane / October 1999)
(5 settlements) PLAYA ROSARIO
SOUTH COAST
. Floods by south
winds and surges
of tropical cyclones
. Shoreline
retreatment a rate
3m/year
SURGE EFFECT
•tons of rocks over the settlement
•25 destroyed dwellings
Playa Rosario
Mitigation Proposal:
Retreat
INITIAL PROPOSAL
Decade 1970
Bizarrón, 15 km
ACTUAL PROPOSAL
Year 2000
WETLAND AREA
Juan Borrel, 5 km
Shoreline 2,5 km
inhabitants 650
PROTECTION
8 settlements
LOCAL REUBICATION 15 settlements
NOT GROWTH 13 settlements
VULNERABILITY OF HAVANA CITY
• AREA AFFECTED 52 HA
• INFLUENCE AREA 183 HA
• AFFECTED POPULATION 45,800 INHABIT
• DWELLINGS 12,041
ADAPTATION STRATEGIES
•ADVANCED ENGINEERING PROJECTS
•URBAN REGULATIONS
COAST SUMMARY
About 250 km of coast has been urbanized
(industries, tourism, port, settlements)
There are 244 coastal settlements, 63 are urban
and 181 are rural ones
Coastal total population is 1.4 MM inhabitants
and represent a 13% of all population in the
country
52 coastal settlements report floods
 50 000 inhabitants of 98 coastal settlements
live under a 1 meter high
 Yearly, in Havana city, other 50 000 inhabitants
exposed annually to coastal floods
 There isn´t significant disperse population in
the coastal zone
 The areas of crops are not very vulnerable to
sea - level rise
 The presence of natural forests is highly
significant, mainly mangroves
 440 beaches (588 km) are affected
 The eastern region of Cuba is the most affected
area by drought in the current and perspective
107 coastal settlements require adaptation
and mitigation measures
GENERAL CONCLUSIONS
IT
HAS
BEEN
DETERMINED
THE
VULNERABILITY OF COASTAL SETTLEMENTS
TO DESERTIFICATION AND SEA LEVEL RISE
BY CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXTREME EVENTS
 TERRITORIAL
AND URBAN PLANNING IN
CUBA IS THE RIGHT WAY TO FACE THE
ADAPTATION OF THE COASTAL ZONES TO
THE GLOBAL CHANGES WITH THE POPULAR
PARTICIPATION.
Carlos Rodríguez Otero
Ada Luisa Pérez Hernández,
Instituto de Planificación Física
La Habana, Cuba
Email : ipf

ceniai.inf.cu
Isidro Salas García
Instituto de Meteorología
La Habana, Cuba
Email: meteoro
ceniai.inf.cu