Transcript National Security and the Threat of Climate Change

NATIONAL SECURITY
AND THE THREAT OF
CLIMATE CHANGE
David Catarious, Ph.D.
Bill Kratz
CNA
Presented to: Society of American
Military Engineers
25 February 2009
Climate Change as a National Security Risk
•
“What adverse conditions are climate changes likely to produce
around the world?”
IF TRENDS CONTINUE….ADVERSE?
•
“What are the ways in which these conditions may affect America’s
national security interests?”
CAN TRENDS AFFECT SECURITY?
•
“What actions should the nation take to address the national security
consequences of climate change?”
WHAT CAN WE (NATIONAL SECURITY COMMUNITY) DO?
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US Military Leaders Examine Climate Change
• CNA study:
– Advisory Board: 11 Retired Flag and General Officers
– Director:
Ms. Sherri Goodman
General Counsel to CNA
Former Deputy Undersecretary of Defense
(Environmental Security)
– Staff:
CNA
– Review Panel
• Briefings: Scientists, Government Officials (US, UN & UK), Industry
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Military Advisory Board (MAB)
GEN Gordon R. Sullivan (Ret.), Chairman
ADM Frank “Skip” Bowman (Ret.)
Lt Gen Lawrence P. Farrell Jr. (Ret.)
VADM Paul G. Gaffney II (Ret.)
GEN Paul Kern (Ret.)
ADM T. Joseph Lopez (Ret.)
ADM Donald “Don” L. Pilling (Ret.)
ADM Joseph W. Prueher (Ret.)
VADM Richard H. Truly (Ret.)
Gen Charles “Chuck” Wald (Ret.)
Gen Anthony C. “Tony” Zinni (Ret.)
Sherri Goodman, Executive Director
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MAB Perspective on Scientific Debate
We never have 100% certainty.
If you wait until you have 100% certainty,
something bad is going to happen
on the battlefield.
That’s something we know.
— GEN Sullivan
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Threats to Natural & Human Systems
Threats
Water
Food
Health
Weather
Case in Point:
Darfur
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Threats to Natural & Human Systems
Threats
Water
Food
Health
Weather
Case in Point:
Somalia
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Findings
• Projected climate change poses a
serious threat to America’s national security
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Findings
• Projected climate change poses a
•
serious threat to America’s national security
Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for
instability in some of the most volatile regions of the
world
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Findings
• Projected climate change poses a
•
serious threat to America’s national security
Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for
instability in some of the most volatile regions of the
world
• Projected climate change will add to
even in stable
tensions
regions of the world
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Climate Change Presents Many Threats
2003 European
heat wave killed
more than
35,000 people
Image courtesy of
NASA Earth 11
Observatory
Findings
• Projected climate change poses a
•
serious threat to America’s national security
Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for
instability in some of the most volatile regions of the
world
• Projected climate change will add to
tensions
even in stable
regions of the world
• Climate change, national security,
and energy dependence are a related set
of global challenges
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An Inter-related Set of Challenges
Energy
Dependence
Climate
Change
National
Security
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Regional Impacts: Arctic
Arctic Ice Cap
21 Sep 2005
Source: NASA, Goddard Space
Flight Center
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Regional Impacts: Arctic
Arctic Ice Cap
14 Sep 2007
Source: NASA, Goddard Space
Flight Center
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The nation’s icebreaking
capability has
diminished substantially
and is at risk of being
unable to support our
national interests
in the Arctic regions.
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Bases Threatened by Rising Sea Levels
Diego Garcia:
Major
logistics hub
for U.S. and
Britain
Average
Elevation:
4 Feet
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Creates Engagement Opportunities
Indian Ocean
Tsunami, 2005:
Support
Operations &
Capacity
Building
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Recommendations: U.S. Must Act
1. Integrate climate change into national security
strategy
2. Play a stronger national and international role
3. Commit to global partnerships that build capacity and
resiliency in less developed nations
4. U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) should use its
buying power to advance clean energy solutions
5. DoD should assess now the impact over the next 3040 years of projected climate changes on military
installations worldwide.
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SecurityandClimate.cna.org
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NATIONAL SECURITY
AND THE THREAT OF
CLIMATE CHANGE
David Catarious, Ph.D.
Bill Kratz
CNA
SAME Monthly Meeting
25 February 2009