Transcript PPT - Climate Land Interaction Project

Land Use
Cluster
Global Climate
CLIMATE DYNAMICS
Lofgren, Moore, Nganga, Conway, Magezi,
Doherty, Andresen, Palutikof, Hansen
Regional
INTEGRATIVE
NPP SIMULATIONS
Spatial and temporal scales
Uncertainty analysis
Feedbacks and tipping points
Systems paradigms
Broader impacts
ALL, Huebner, Yang
Andresen, Thornton, Maitima,
Alagarswami, Reid, Palm, Mutuo
Crops
Local
Rangeland
LAND COVER
Qi, Lusch, Reid, Maitima,
Olson, Torbick, Ge
Remote
Sensing
Case
Studies
LAND USE CHANGE
Olson, Campbell, Mugisha,
Yanda, Pijanowski, Misana,
Qi, Wilson, Goodwin
Case
Expert
Role Playing
system
Models Simulation
Studies workshops
Human Systems
CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005
Land Use Driving Forces
• Link to land use modeling, land cover through:
– Providing analyses of past LUC patterns and drivers, and
change agents to inform LU modelling
– Providing information on current and future directions of
LUC: who, what, why, where changes are likely to occur
– Evaluating LU model results
• Feedback loop from NPP, downscaling, climate
models to land use (later):
– Identify “hotspots” where current LU systems most
vulnerable to climate change
– Identify how people in different areas may respond by
changing their livelihoods and land use
CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005
Studies of Past LUC
LUCID project and other site studies in agricultural,
pastoral, and protected area landscapes in
Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
• Completed site level LUC analyses
• Completed cross-site comparison to identify for
East Africa:
• the spatial patterns over time: what is
common across sites and unique to sites
• the relative importance of drivers and
“agents” in different periods, and how
related to LUC patterns
• how wider economic, tenure, population,
policies and war/peace context affects
LUC.
CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005
LUCID case study results
1955 (left) and 2000 (right) land use change in Kibale, Uganda National Park and Surrounding Areas.
Source: Mugisha 2002
CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005
Current and Future LUC
Expert System Workshops: identify zones of
expected LU change, the likely LUC to occur,
when and why
Role Playing Scenario: how groups of people
negotiate over land
Studies of particular interest: urbanisation and
rural migration, fuelwood harvesting
CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005
Land Use Expert Workshop:
Kenya
Representatives from KARI and the
Univ. of Nairobi
CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005
Land Use Expert Workshop: Kenya
Land use conversions will
continue due to, e.g.:
– Urban market for crops and
meat, dairy
– Migration into medium to
low potential zones
– Sedentarisation of
pastoralists
Expansion of cropping into
semi-arid areas with the
issue of mixed classes &
mixed pixels—crops and
savanna
CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005
Land Use Expert Workshop:
Tanzania
Representatives from the government
and from academic units at UDSM,
NSF
CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005
Land Use Expert Workshop: Tanzania
Major LU conversions are
expected in certain zones
due to, e.g.:
– Transport infrastructure
development: roads,
bridges
– Government’s agricultural
modernisation policy
– Structural adjustment
– Rural migration
Critical role of policies—how
incorporate into models?
CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005
Land Use Expert Workshop:
Uganda
Representatives from the
Government and Makerere Univ.
CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005
Land Use Expert Workshop: Uganda
Land use conversions
expected in certain zones
due to:
– Market forces for crops and
meat, dairy
– Enforcement of environmental
laws
– Demand for wood
– Peace in the North
Impact of peace on livelihoods,
land use—how incorporate?
CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005
ROLE PLAYING SIMULATION
How do farmer and herder groups
decide who gets what land?
How do they respond to government
land mandates?
What is the land use outcome of the
competition over land?
Representatives from the
Kenya Government and
universities
CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005
Special study: Urbanisation, Rural Migration
Population and Urbanization Trends
50
45
KENYA
TANZANIA
UGANDA
40
Population (in millions)
35
30
Rural
Urban
25
46
20
Numbers
represent
% urban
51
15
5
34
38
10
12
10
12
14
2002
2015
8
Source:
U.N. D.P.
Human
Development
Report, 2002.
0
1975
2002
2015
1975
2002
2015
1975
CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005
Urbanisation, Rural Migration
Land use impacts of
population shifts and
growth,
in both rural and urban
areas.
CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005
Study of Fuelwood Harvesting:
How will it affect land cover in the future?
Major variables:
• Urban population growth
• Will charcoal still supply
85% of urban cooking
energy?
• Will charcoal continue
to come from woodlands
and bush, or from
planted trees?
CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005
Links
• Land use change patterns and driving
forces land use spatial modelling
• Group and individual land use
decisionsagent based land use modelling
• Land use/land cover relationship
• Land use and livelihood responses to climate
change, with crop-climate modelsland
use/climate feedback loop
CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005