Transcript FreeGrowingandClimate Change2008CF

Free-Growing Policy and
Climate Change
Alex Woods, Regional Pathologist, NIFR, MOFR
How are free-growing stands doing?
E-Squared Free-Growing Project
Overall Objective:
To test if the Free-Growing declaration point-intime assessment is an accurate predictor of future
stand productivity and if the assumptions of stand
performance are valid.
Lakes
Okanagan
Strathcona
Results: Forest Health/Free Growing
18% of Freegrowing stands
in the Lakes
TSA no longer
contain the
minimum 700
fgsph based on
the LCL rule.
Lakes TSA
TIPSY projected volumes and Free-growing density Lakes TSA
Contrasts
Projected Volume at 80 yrs
1) Early:
2) Late:
3) Averaged over time
F-growing (stems/ha) (M)
1) Early:
2) Late:
3) Averaged over survey time
Contrast Means
SE of
Difference
p-value
1.4
1.4
0.032
0.091
10.1
0.32
Declaration
2005
327
316
Early
325
324
314
Late
315
1020.8
975.0
Early
972.9
1010.7
Late
34.5
34.5
0.17
0.31
996.9
992.8
27.8
0.89
Photo: J. Hodge
Species composition (leading species, Inventory label) of 60
randomly selected stands declared in the period 1987-1994 and
from 1995-2001, both at the time of Free-growing and in 2006
Okanagan TSA
70.0
Bl
Cw
Fd
Hw
Pl
Se
60.0
Percent
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Declaration
1987-1994
2006
Declaration
1995-2001
2006
Comparison of the percentage of stands no longer FreeGrowing based on mean and the LCL decision rule,
between stands created pre-1987 and those post-1987
based on 60 randomly selected Free-Growing openings in
the Okanagan TSA (2006)
70
59.6
# of stands and percent
60
52
50
% Not FG (LCL)
37.5 37.5
40
30
56.7
# of stands
% Not FG (mean)
31.7
30.8
20
8
10
0
Pre-'87
Post-'87
Total
The Basic Foundations
•The marriage of free-growing and
the BEC classification system has
lead to a sophisticated ecosystembased forest management policy
framework in BC.
The Basic Foundations
•The ability of licensees to fulfill their
basic obligation of reforestation to
create free-growing stands is based on
a stable timber supply, a competitive
industry and a profitable marketplace.
Climate change is
already undermining
these foundations.
Photo: E. Havard
Photo: E. Havard
A free-growing designation presupposes that young trees will
continue to grow and thrive in a
relatively stable environment…
“Do not mess around with details.
Consider that within an 80-year
rotation the environmental conditions
on Elsemere Island are predicted to be
suitable for growing trees!”
Richard Hebda, 2007
Timber Supply and the Mountain Pine Beetle Infestation
in British Columbia: 2007 Update Forest Analysis and Inventory Branch
“Given the amount of
regeneration that will
be needed, the risk of
future beetle outbreaks
and a warming climate
being a possibility,
short-term silvicultural
practices will have a
large influence on forest
conditions in the mid and
long-term.”
Future Forests Ecosystems Initiative
Objective #5
.
Adapt the forest and range management
framework to maintain and enhance ecological
resilience and ecosystem services, products and
benefits under changing ecological conditions
Strategy to Achieve that Objective:
Determine which aspects of forest and range management
framework should be adapted, and how, in response to
climate change.
Free Growing = Proactive? = Resiliency?
•A results-based policy framework with freegrowing policy at its core is by nature reactive.
•Management choices made in order to cost
effectively achieve the result of “free-growing”
are not necessarily the same choices that
would be made in order to make a resilient
stand capable of coping with the effects of
climate change.
Is it time to examine FreeGrowing Policy in light of
Climate Change?