Transcript How well can we predict the unpredictable climate?

How well can we predict the unpredictable climate?
Environment and security seminar, Oslo, 8 Dec. 2004
Prof. Olav Orheim, Director, Norwegian Polar Institute
Content of this presentation
The overall climate picture
– Uncertainty - the ”loaded dice” and can we
insure against the risk?
– Lack of knowledge and IPY 2007-2008
We are the first generation that influences global
climate and the last generation to escape the
consequences
Norwegian Glacier Museum, 1991
Natural climate changes
_
CO2 level in 2004
CO2 leads CH4 which leads temp.
Source: EPICA team.
Nature, 10 June 2004
Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature
for the past 1,000 years
SPM 1b
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Source: Meteorologisk Institute, Oslo, November 2004
Predicting the unpredictable climate
The greenhouse effect is certain - without it no humans!
Uncertainties for the future include:
• Balance between natural and human effects, including
variations in output of the sun.
• Feedbacks, including clouds, albedo, snow and ice,
vegetation, carbon storage, atmosphere/ocean interaction
Averages can be predicted – not single events.
This is the ”loaded dice”
Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature; 1000 to 2100
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COP 6bis /S BS TA
Comparing observed and projected
changes
1954-2003 Winter (D,J,F)
1990’s -2090’s Winter (D,J,F)
Southern Europe July/August temperatures,
as deviation from 1961-1990 mean.
* below is 2003 summer
Observed (black) and climate models (colour)
Source: Stott, Stone, Allen. Nature, 2. Dec. 2004
Daily mortality, B-W, Germany
Per 100 000 people. Note 2003 heatwave
Source: Schär and Jendritzky, Nature 2 December 2004.
B-W = Baden-Wurttemberg, Sozialministerium
The Greenland Ice Sheet
Satellite Data
Documents
the Changes
Insuring against climate change?
Association of British Insurers in October 2004:
• ”Global economic losses caused by natural weather
catastrophies have increased 10-fold over past 40 years.”
• ”Damage now increasing 2-4%/year from changing climate.”
Mainly floods, storms,avalanches
Sea level now rising 2 mm/year, Holland sinks 2 cm/year
The Pentagon weather nightmare (“Abrupt climate change”)
“The day after tomorrow”
Understanding and Projecting the Changes in the Oceanic
Conveyor Belt is a Critical Question for Science
Note Downward
Trend
beginning in
late 1970’s
Nine (9) Models
Source: Cubasch et al. 2001
Observations so far show no
weakening of the ocean transport
International Polar Year 2007-2008
• An intense burst of activity combining, ground
observations and satellites, to give a data set
for improving climate models and predictions
• A permanent legacy of improved Arctic
cooperation
• Arctic/Antarctic ocean teleconnections –
thermohaline circulation and the climate of
lower latitudes