Transcript USDA proposal on Regional Approaches for Adaptation to and

USDA Coordinated Agricultural Project
Regional Approaches for Adaptation to and
Mitigation of Climate Variability and Change
Oregon State University (lead)
University of Washington
Northern Arizona University
USFS Pacific Northwest Research Station
University of Arizona
USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station
University of Idaho
Utah State University
University of Montana
Washington State University
What is a Coordinated Agricultural Project?
Coordinated Agricultural Projects (CAPs)
 Multi-million dollar projects
 Multi-state, multi-institutional, and trans-disciplinary teams
 Integrate scientific discoveries and technology with practical
application
Integrates research, education, and extension
 Climate CAP teams conduct targeted research, education, and
extension activities in response to the goals of the Climate
Change Program
Regional CAP for 2010
Regional approaches to Climate Change: CAP
 Application deadline – January 13, 2012
 $2,000,000 per year ($10 million total) for up to 5 years
 Anticipates making 2 awards among diverse agricultural
systems
 Regional integrated CAP focusing on mitigation and
adaptation, involving research, education, and outreach
 We are focusing on Forest systems: western conifers
Requests for applications
 Adaptation – adjustment in natural or human systems in response
to actual or expected climate change effects which moderates harm
or exploits beneficial opportunities
 Mitigation – human intervention to reduce anthropogenic forcing of
the climate system, including strategies to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions and enhance greenhouse gas sinks
Stakeholders are critical
 “Demonstrate the adoption of approaches and practices
across the region…”
 Stakeholders are seed orchard managers, nursery
managers, silviculturists, managers of forest operations,
wood products manufacturers, managers of carbon offsets
programs, policy makers, teachers, and students
 Organizations are forest industry, governmental agencies,
tribes, small private landowners, NGOs, and universities
 Included in project advisory groups
Long-term goal
Synthesize existing knowledge and develop new
knowledge on the impacts of climate change on western
forest production systems, and then design, convey,
and implement management strategies that maximize
forest health, forest productivity, and greenhouse gas
mitigation under changing climates
Management plan
Planning process – 2010-11
Oregon sub-regional meeting
Idaho sub-regional meeting
Regional planning meeting in Portland
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Proposal presentations by group leaders
Immediate on-line feedback from stakeholders and participants
Information used to design complete project proposal
Active involvement of participants
Arizona regional meeting
 National Workshop on Climate and Forests
 External review of complete project
Today’s objectives
 Describe potential monitoring network
 Ground-based and remote monitoring networks
 Describe potential modeling framework
 Obtain feedback
 Find stakeholders who want to be engaged
Today’s objectives
WC4 region
Analyses requiring the inclusion of
non-forested areas will be
conducted across the entire WC4
region depicted. Forest-based
analyses will occur across the WC4
forests (Maritime West Coast and
Western Cordilleran Forests in
green), and particularly intensive
analyses will occur at specific
locations along one or more WC4
transects. Forest ecozones are
from Wiken (1986) and Omernik
(1987).
Ground-based monitoring network
Long-term goal:
Provide a common plot network that facilitates
linkages among concurrent efforts in
silvicultural experimentation, monitoring at
various spatial scales, modeling tree and
stand responses, physiological
experimentation and quantifying storage and
flux of carbon, nitrogen and water
Ground-based monitoring network
Stakeholders
Landowners hosting the permanent plots and supporting the
silvicultural research to improve the economic and environmental
performance of their forests.
The proposed WC4 research will:
• Expand and enhance the original objectives behind establishment of
the various permanent plot networks.
• Ensure relevance of the research activity to managers of these
forests
• Help establish direct connections with respective landowners
• Provide a sense of participation by the landowners
Ground-based monitoring network
Approach
• Establish criteria to ensure that plots considered for the WC4
network meet minimum criteria with respect to plot size, data quality,
duration of past growth records and environmental monitoring,
intended longevity, and climatic type (e.g., principal components
ordination based on decadal ClimateWNA variables).
• Selected plots will receive standard instrumentation for monitoring
soil moisture, soil temperature, below-canopy humidity, throughfall
precipitation, air temperature, forest floor incident radiation, and any
others deemed essential by the team
Ground-based monitoring network
Approach (cont’d)
• Selected plots will be measured consistently for tree growth, indices
of tree physiological status, understory vegetation, carbon pools,
soil and plant nutrient content, and others deemed essential by the
team.
• A subset of these plots will be strategically selected for
supplementary physiological measurements, and successively
smaller subsets will be selected for more detailed physiological
work.
• The plot network will be linked to remote sensing monitoring and
broad scale modeling of forest dynamics.
Potential WCCCC plot network
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Potential WCCCC plot network
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Giustina
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Potential WCCCC plot network
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SMC Type 5
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CPT
CTPT
CTR
Combined
DFLOGS
DFRA
DMS
Delayed
ECR
FLY
GIS
Giustina
HerbI
IDAHO
IFTNC
MENASHA
PCT
SMCT1
SMCT2
SMCT3
SMCT4
SMCT5
SNC09
SNCCAS
STUDS
Stocktype
WindRiver
Potential WCCCC plot network
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SMC Type 1
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CPT
CTPT
CTR
Combined
DFLOGS
DFRA
DMS
Delayed
ECR
FLY
GIS
Giustina
HerbI
IDAHO
IFTNC
MENASHA
PCT
SMCT1
SMCT2
SMCT3
SMCT4
SMCT5
SNC09
SNCCAS
STUDS
Stocktype
WindRiver
Potential WCCCC plot network
Principal Component 2
15
10
5
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Swiss needle
cast, Cascades
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Swiss needle
cast, Coast
Ranges
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Principal Component 1
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2in2
BLROCK
BN
CPT
CTPT
CTR
Combined
DFLOGS
DFRA
DMS
Delayed
ECR
FLY
GIS
Giustina
HerbI
IDAHO
IFTNC
MENASHA
PCT
SMCT1
SMCT2
SMCT3
SMCT4
SMCT5
SNC09
SNCCAS
STUDS
Stocktype
WindRiver
Potential WCCCC plot network
Principal Component 2
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
Principal Component 1
10
15
2in2
BLROCK
BN
CPT
CTPT
CTR
Combined
DFLOGS
DFRA
DMS
Delayed
ECR
FLY
GIS
Giustina
HerbI
IDAHO
IFTNC
MENASHA
PCT
SMCT1
SMCT2
SMCT3
SMCT4
SMCT5
SNC09
SNCCAS
STUDS
Stocktype
WindRiver
Potential WCCCC plot network
Environmental monitoring in place
Second Principal Component
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10
BN
Combined
Delayed
ECR
ECR
Giustina
SMCT5
5
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-15
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First Principal Component
10
Potential WCCCC plot network
15
Principal Component 2
Fly Creek
Moisture and
temperature
sensors
10
5
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Principal Component 1
10
15
2in2
BLROCK
BN
CPT
CTPT
CTR
Combined
DFLOGS
DFRA
DMS
Delayed
ECR
FLY
GIS
Giustina
HerbI
IDAHO
IFTNC
MENASHA
PCT
SMCT1
SMCT2
SMCT3
SMCT4
SMCT5
SNC09
SNCCAS
STUDS
Stocktype
WindRiver
Ground-based monitoring network
 Common measurement protocol on all plots
selected for monitoring network
 Enhanced measurements and instrumentation
on strategic subset of plots
 3-5 intensive study sites with manipulative
silvicultural/physiological experiments
 Remote sensing component
Modeling framework
 RFA text: Develop standardized methodologies
for estimating carbon, nitrogen, and water footprints of
regional system
for evaluating the feedback linkages between changes
in production system with human behavior and
decision-making
Modeling objectives
 Standardized methodologies for projecting
changes in climate and stores and fluxes of
carbon, nitrogen, and water
 Understand potential effects of climate change
on western coniferous forests and
stakeholders
 Monitor forest change and stakeholder
behavior change
Requirements of modeling system
 Estimate current and projected fluxes of
carbon, nitrogenm, and water
 Modify climate and forest management
 Use proposed ground-based and remote
measurements as inputs
 Yield robust predictions (comparison of
alternative modeling approaches)
 Integrate multiple models
Today’s objectives
 Describe potential monitoring network
 Ground-based and remote monitoring networks
 Describe potential modeling framework
 Obtain feedback
 Find stakeholders who want to be
engaged