Transcript Partnership for the Delaware Estuary

Climate Adaptation in the Delaware Estuary:
Risks, Opportunities and Tough Choices
Danielle Kreeger
Science Director
Case Studies
Climate Ready Pilot
Adaptation Planning
ID
Vulnerabilities
Loss of Nature’s
Benefits
Tidal Marshes
Bivalve Shellfish
Adaptation
Options
Recommendations
Drinking Water
DK 3
Climate Change in the Delaware Estuary
1. Likely Physical Changes
Temp
Salinity
Sea Level Rise
Storms
2. Example Effects on Key Resources
Water
Wetlands
Fish & Wildlife
DK 4
Climate
Impacts
on Drinking
Water Supply
Combined
Vulnerability
and Confidence
Levels
160
Prototype
flooding
sea level rise
140
disruptions to aquatic ecosystems
120
storm surge
lightening and electrical disturbances
100
increased number and intensity of wild fires
increased frequency of short-term drought
80
decreased groundwater levels
decreased river discharge and stream flow
60
changes in watershed vegetation and forest cover
extreme flooding
40
increased groundwater levels
20
increased runoff
increased river discharge and stream flow
0
Erosion of
Infrastructure
Overflowing Reservoir
Capacity
Decreased Reservoir
Supply
Examples
Power Outages
Relative Cost/Benefit Analysis of Adaptation Options
45
Prototype
flooding
40
sea level rise
35
disruptions to aquatic ecosystems
Drinking Water Tough Questions storm surge
lightening
electrical disturbances
• How can we maintain low salinity
in and
the
upper estuary?
increased number and intensity of wild fires
• Will more reservoirs be needed, which have
increased frequency of short-term drought
their own issues?
groundwater levels
• Where should infrastructure be decreased
protected
decreased river discharge and stream flow
from SLR versus strategic retreat?
30
25
20
15
10
changes in watershed vegetation and forest
cover
5
extreme flooding
0
Campaign to
Retrofit old Pipes
New Salt
Resistance
Infrastructure
Create designated Stream Buffers
flood zones
Examples
Controlled Burns
increased groundwater levels
Tidal Wetlands
A Signature Trait of System
Near Contiguous Band
Diverse: Freshwater Tidal Marshes
Brackish Marshes
Salt Marshes
Nature’s Benefits
Flood Protection
Water Quality
Fish and Wildlife
Natural Areas
Carbon Sequestration
Wetland Benefits (Ecosystem Services)
Milenium Ecosystem Assessment
1º Service
2º Service
Fisheries Support
Food
Provisioning
Algae and invertebrate production
Livelihoods
Genetic Materials
Biochemical Products
Fiber and Fuel
Sequestration
Phragmites control research
Research in Antifungal Agents
Cellulose stock
Health
Sediment Stabilization
Regulating
Storm Protection/ Wave Attenuation/
Flood Protection
Lives
Gas Regulation
Water Quality
Supporting
Health
Carbon Caps,
mitigation
Meet TMDLs for
sediment
Carbon
Erosion control
Protect Property Values and
infrastructure
Carbon Sequestration
Oxygen production
Health
Recreation
Spiritual and Inspirational
Cultural/ Spiritual
Human Well Being
4º Service
3º Service
TMDLs: Nutrients,
Pollutants
Sequestration, Filtering
Bird watching, hunting, boating
Native American Uses
University reasearch & school
projects/trips
Landscape pictures, paintings,
open space
Wildlife, shellfish, insects
Maintain Plant Communities
Primary Production
Health
Educational
Aesthetic Value
Habitat
Biodiversity
Production
Water Cycling/Hydrologic Regime
Nutrient Cycling/Biogeochemical
Processes
Health
Maintain trophic cycles, soil
building
Tidal Wetlands
Long-standing Concerns
Degradation
Conversion and Loss
Growing Concerns
Sea Level & Salinity Rise
Storms
Sediment budget
Living Shorelines 2008
DK 9
Are Coastal Wetlands Crossing a Tipping Point?
Example
Smooth
Response
Unlikely
Extent of Climate Change
Ecosystem Response
Ecosystem Response
Critical thresholds can be breached even if conditions change gradually
Abrupt Response
Likely
Threshold
Extent of Climate Change
Slide adapted from Carlos Duarte
DK 10
Angola Neck – Rehoboth Bay, DE
Summer, 2006
Sudden Wetland Dieback – Marsh Browning
Severely
Stressed
35%
Minimally
or Not
Stressed
17%
Moderately
Stressed
48%
Slide from Chris Bason and Amy Jacobs
Changes in Wetland Function
Natural versus Restored
Benefits (functions)
Reference Wetland Condition
Existing Wetlands
Restored Wetlands
time
Slide adapted from Amy Jacobs (DNREC)
Tidal Wetland Vulnerability?
Freshwater Tidal Marshes
• Salinity Rise Causes Conversion to Brackish
• Barriers to Landward Migration
• Others: Tidal Range, Seasonal Drying/Wetting
Salt Marshes
• Sea Level Rise, Subsidence and Sediment
Deficits Lead to Drowning
• Storms and Wind Wave Erosion
• Barriers to Landward Migration
• Others: Seasonal Wetting/Drying, Invasives
Options?
Living
Shorelines
Delaware Estuary Living Shorelines
Elevation Increase %
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Log
Double Log
Shellbag +
Log
Treatment
Control
Tidal Wetlands Adaptation Planning
Goal: Maximize long-term health and resiliency
Wetland Tough Choices
• Where will wetlands will be
converted to open water?
• Where can we save them ?
• Where is strategic retreat
the best option?
DK 16
Bivalves of the Delaware
11 Other Species of
Freshwater Unionid
Mussels
Corbicula fluminea
Elliptio complanata
Rangia cuneata
Mya arenaria
Geukensia demissa
Mytilus edulis
Ensis directus
Mercenaria
DRBC
mercenaria
Crassostrea virginica
DK 17
Shifts in Species Ranges of
Freshwater Mussels
Patchy, Impaired
Elliptio complanata




Rare
Extirpated
Strophitus undulatus
Alasmidonta heterodon
State Conservation Status
NJ
Scientific Name
Scientific Name
ALASMIDONTA HETERODON
DWARF WEDGEMUSSEL
Endangered
Endangered
Critically Imperiled
ALASMIDONTA UNDULATA
TRIANGLE FLOATER
Extirpated ?
Threatened
Vulnerable
ALASMIDONTA VARICOSA
BROOK FLOATER
Endangered
Endangered
Imperiled
ANODONTA IMPLICATA
ALEWIFE FLOATER
Extremely Rare
no data
Extirpated ?
ELLIPTIO COMPLANATA
EASTERN ELLIPTIO
common
common
Secure
LAMPSILIS CARIOSA
YELLOW LAMPMUSSEL
Endangered
Threatened
Vulnerable
LAMPSILIS RADIATA
EASTERN LAMPMUSSEL
Endangered
Threatened
Imperiled
LASMIGONA SUBVIRIDIS
GREEN FLOATER
no data
Endangered
Imperiled
LEPTODEA OCHRACEA
TIDEWATER MUCKET
Endangered
Threatened
Extirpated ?
LIGUMIA NASUTA
EASTERN PONDMUSSEL
Endangered
Threatened
Critically Imperiled
MARGARITIFERA MARGARITIFERA
EASTERN PEARLSHELL
no data
no data
Imperiled
PYGANODON CATARACTA
EASTERN FLOATER
no data
no data
Vulnerable
STROPHITUS UNDULATUS
SQUAWFOOT
Extremely Rare
Species of Concern
Apparently Secure
DE
PA
Oyster Disease
and Salinity
Salt Line Location
From Rutgers HSRL
From DRBC
www.livingclassrooms.org/lbo/dermo/oyster2.jpg
Oyster Management
Can they maintain (or be maintained) until they
might see more optimal conditions?
1000
No Help
With Help
1758
900
DK 21
Longer
Growing
Season
800
Options? Shellplanting2 Recruitment
Number per Bushel
700
600
Events
500
400
Intertidal Niche
Expansion?
300
200
100
Point of No Return
Oyster
Spat
Mean Oyster
Mean Spat
Historical data from Rutgers Haskin Shellfish Laboratory
5
7
2060
Year
3
2030
53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1
Today
0
BrandywineRiver,
River,PA
PA
Brandywine
Elliptio complanata
Delaware Estuary Marshes
Geukensia demissa
Delaware Bay Oysters
Crassostrea virginica
DK 22
Bivalve Vulnerability?
Oyster Reefs
• Salinity Driven Disease Epizootics
• Others: Food, pH
Salt marsh Mussel Beds
• Loss and Degradation of Wetland Habitat
• Others: Food, PH
Freshwater Mussel Beds
• Range Shifts with No Dispersal
• Habitat Degradation (T, salinity, pH, fish hosts)
Nature’s Benefits
Bivalve Shellfish are
“Ecosystem Engineers”
CTUIR Freshwater Mussel Project
DK 24
Water Filtration Benefits
Start
No mussels
8 adult mussels
Slide from R. Neves, VA Tech
DK 25
Water Filtration Benefits
Later
No mussels
8 adult mussels
Slide from R. Neves, VA Tech
DK 26
Water Filtration
Benefits
Population-Level
Water
Processing
Billions of Liters per Hour
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Elliptio
complanata
Geukensia
demissa
Crassostrea
virginica
Nature’s Benefits (Natural Capital)
Livelihoods
Shellfish Tough Decisions
Which species and associated
benefits
can
be
Lives
sustained?
Which should we invest in? (since funding will always
be limited)
Health
Livelihoods
Health
Climate Change in a
Complex Landscape
The Living Estuary
Water fowl, finfish, shellfish
Horseshoe crab population
Extensive tidal marshes
The Working River
4th largest US urban center
world’s largest freshwater port
70% of east coast oil
past and present industrial center
DK 29
Climate Change +Other Changes
DK 30
•Marcellus Shale •Ecological Flows
•Spills,
NRDA
•Dredging
Added Complexity
•Withdrawals
•Wind Farms
•Land Use Change
•Development
•Emerging Pollutants
“Restore” for the Future
• Forecast future sustainable states (winners and losers)
• Smart “restoration” = climate adaptation
• Shift policy and management paradigms
1000
1758
900
800
Number per Bushel
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7
Year
Oyster
Spat
Mean Oyster
Mean Spat
2030
Today
Maximize Bang for the Buck
DK 31
- End -
Next Steps?
1. Science
Strengthen adaptation plan with more rigorous monitoring and
predictive modeling for likely consequences
2. Local Relevance
Develop high resolution geospatial–based planning tools that
guide local actions, nested within a watershed-basis
3. Nature’s Benefits
Develop and use decision tools with “bang for the buck”
estimates of environmental outcomes for various adaptation tactics
4. Collaboration
Implement a coordinated strategy for advancing science, policy and
on-the-ground actions
Many Other Issues
Timing of Shorebird Migration and
Horseshoe Crab Spawning
Website slides are from the Delaware Shorebird Project
and the Horseshoe Crab Conservation Network