Transcript TCC_activities

The Activities of
Tokyo Climate Center
Fumio WATANABE
Tokyo Climate Center
Climate Prediction Division, JMA
Tokyo Climate Center (TCC)
Establishment : April 2002
Mission :
To assist Climate Services of NMHSs
in the Asia-Pacific region
with the aim of Mitigating climate-related
disasters and Contributing to the sustainable
development in the region
The Activities of TCC
1. Significance of Climate Information
and Necessity of effective Application
2. Backgrounds of TCC’s Establishment
Framework proposed by WMO for Advanced Climate Service
Long-range Forecasting Service in JMA
3.
4.
5.
6.
Tasks of TCC
Data and Products available from TCC
About this Workshop
Concluding Remarks
Climate Information
“Climate” is average weather condition.
“Normal Climate”
“Climate” has fluctuation around “Normal Climate”.
“Climate Variability”
“Climate” shifts to other state of “Climate”.
“Climate Change”
Growing Awareness of Significance
of Climate Information
large fluctuation
from
Normal Climate
Extreme Climate
Events
Globalization of
Socio-economic activities
Vulnerability
Damages by Disasters
Need for Climate Monitoring,
Diagnosis, and Prediction
Climate-related Disasters
Coping with
disasters
Climate Information
Typical Climate Phenomena and associated Disasters
in the Asia-Pacific Region
Winter Monsoon
Flood by Snow-melting
Heavy Snow
Heat Wave
Drought & Flood
Asian Summer
Monsoon
Cold Wave
Drought
& Flood
Subtropical-High
Baiu-Front
ENSO
Drought & Flood
El Niño Events as Triggers to
Development of Climate Issues
1. 1982/83 El Niño
the second largest event in the 20th century
Progress of scientific studies on ENSO
Development of tropical ocean observing system
Understanding of ENSO, Development of ENSO prediction model
2. 1997/98 El Niño
the largest event in the 20th century
Awareness of Significance of ENSO information
and Necessity of its effective application
Liaison between Science Community and Disaster Management Sector
IDNDR of United Nations
United Nations Initiative
IDNDR : 1990-1999
(International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction)
Inter-agency Task Force on El Niño (1997)
ISDR : 2000(International Strategy for Disaster Reduction)
Inter-agency Task Force on Disaster Reduction
WG1 on Climate and Disasters (chaired by WMO)
El Niño Update (WMO since 2001)
WG2 on Early Warning
WG3 on Risk, Vulnerability & Disaster Impact Assessment
WG4 on Wild land Fires
Atmosphere
Ocean
Land
Surface Fresh water
Integrated Global Observing Strategy
WWW
Global
Observing
System
(GOS)
Climate Data
Global
Atmospheric
Watch
(GAW)
Global
Ocean
Observing
System
(GOOS)
Observation
Climate Information
Detection
of
Climate Change
Global
Climate
Observing
System
(GCOS)
Global
Terrestrial
Observing
System
(GTOS)
World
Hydrological
Cycle
Observing
System
(WHYCOS)
Monitoring
the State of the
Climate System
Seasonal to
Interannual
Climate
Prediction
Climate
Information
and
Prediction
Services
(CLIPS)
Projection
of
the Global
Warming
Climate
Research
Requirements
Information
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Requirements
Application
Three motivating Backgrounds
1. Growing Awareness of
Significance of Climate Information and
Necessity of its Effective Application
2. Increasing Recognition of Necessity of
International Cooperation Framework
planned by World Meteorological Organization
(WMO)
3. Technical Development which makes Advanced
Climate Services possible
Framework proposed by WMO for Advanced Climate Service
Users
Climate Information
NMHSs
Products
Data, Feedback
Technical
Assistance
Global Producing
Centres (GPCs)
Regional Climate Centres (RCCs)
Global SI Products
・ Operational activities
Tailored Products
Operational Preparation ・ Data services
Provision
・ Capacity building activities
Verification
・ Research and Development
Improvement
・ Coordination functions
Long-range Forecasting Service in JMA
Period I
Start of long-range forecasting service in 1940’s
Statistical Methods
Period II ( 1980’s )
Introduction of Systematic Monitoring and
Diagnosis of the Global Climate System
Period III ( from 1990’s )
Introduction of Dynamical Prediction Model
Period II ( 1980’s ) in JMA
Importance of monitoring and diagnosis of
the global climate system for long-range forecast
El Niño and
La Niña events
in 1980’s
Convection near the
Philippines intensifies
Subtropical High over
Japan in mid-summer.
Period III ( from 1990’s)
Development of Dynamical Climate
Prediction at JMA
• 1996 - One-month forecast
• 1999 - El Niño Outlook
• 2003 - Three-month forecast
Cold season forecast
• 2004 - Warm season forecast
Integrated Climate Information Production
System at JMA
Dynamical Climate
Prediction System
Prediction
El Niño prediction system
ensemble prediction system
Observations
D/A System
Monitoring
Future
Present
CDAS
ODAS
Database /
Reanalysis System
Analysis
Past
Tasks of TCC/JMA
Monitoring of
Global Climate System
Global Dynamical
Prediction
Monitoring of
Extreme Events
Promotion of Application of
Climate Information
ENSO Outlook
Technical Assistance
Preparation and Provision of
Basic Climate Information
Capacity Building Activities
NMHSs
in the
AsiaPacific
Climate Data
Feedback
Data and Products
available from TCC’s Web Site
1. Global Climate and Extreme Climate Events
global temperature anomalies, global precipitation ratios, etc.
2. Monitoring Report on the Global Climate System
atmospheric circulation, convection, lower boundary
conditions, oceanographic conditions, Asian Monsoon
monitoring, stratospheric circulation monitoring, etc.
3. Current Diagnosis Report and Outlook for ENSO
ENSO monitoring products and indices, El Nino outlook, etc.
4. One-month and Three-month Ensemble Prediction
prediction maps and verification charts, global GPVs
Grid point value products
(available at TCC Web Site, required ID & password)
Global GPVs
Grids are spaced per 2.5-degree in lat. and in lon.
One-month forecast
Ensemble mean of 26 members averaged for 7-day
Three-month forecast
Ensemble mean of 31 members averaged for a month
and three months
Warm and Cold season forecast
Ensemble mean of 31 members averaged for three
months
Home of the TCC’s Web Site
Example of Products on the TCC’s Web Site
Monitoring of Extreme Climate Events, October 2003
Example of Products on the TCC’s Web Site
Asian Monsoon Monitoring
Example of Products on the TCC’s Web Site
Example of Products on the TCC’s Web Site
One-month and Three-Month Prediction Products
Conclusion
1. There is Growing Awareness of significance of climate
information to cope with climate-related disasters.
Effective Application should be enhanced but based on
correct understanding of uncertainty of the information.
2. JMA develops and improves the Integrated Climate
Information Production System (ICIRS).
3. NMHSs should prepare and deliver climate information.
International Cooperation Framework should assist NMHSs.
TCC contributes to such a Framework.
4. TCC improves and increases basic climate data and
products available from the TCC Web Site.
TCC will continue to hold workshops and Training
Courses as capacity building activities.