Transcript JPMT_Crisis Spain_HM_2014

11TH ANNUAL HISTORICAL MATERIALISM CONFERENCE
6-9th November 2014
School of Oriental & African Studies, University of London
THE SPANISH CRISIS
THEORETICAL QUESTIONS AND EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
Juan Pablo Mateo Tomé
Visiting researcher, dept. of Economics, Kingston University
Email: [email protected]
I. THEORETICAL ASPECTS
Overview: the economic crisis
• Existence of one theory for the crisis within the Marxist approach
• How the general laws of accumulation manifest themselves in the
Spanish economy
• Law of value → insufficient surplus generated: profitability crisis
(TPRF)
Spain: characterisation of the growth model
• Valorisation process centered in the construction sector → revalorisation of residential assets or increase in the housing prices
apart from objective foundations
• Investment ↔ Price {demand pushes up prices and price increase
attracts more demand} → Profits
• Disequilibria in price deflators
Causes:
→ Profitability: social content, not psychological or technical
– Problems in the capacity of generating surplus in other
branches
→ Inelasticity of demand
→ External links (How can it be sustainable for the entire period? )
– Industry: elements for construction, transport infrastructure
– Services: sale/ rental, reparations, plumbing, financial (credit
loans, securitisation)
– Particularities of Spain
→ Integration in the Eurozone
– Less productive development
– Vs tradable sectors
Implications of the housing bubble for the empirical research:
• It is not sufficient to analyse the behaviour of the macro
categories (CK, p, r)
– Sectoral restructuring
– Stagnation of K/L, Y/L
• How to adress the level and dynamics of profitability?
– The fictitious character of the rise in ‘r’ is revealed in the
depreciation of assets → debt
– Changes in the apparent causality: Investment → price →
profit
– Consequence: limits of the System of NA
II. MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS
The Spanish case: a profitability crisis?
Rate of profit
 -17.4% (95-07)
 -24.7% (95-12)
Long term rate of profit (1970-2012)
• Surplus (Ameco and INE): VA – Wages
• All expressions of r descend abruptly from the max. reached in 1974 to 2012:
• r (total) → -46%;
• r (exc RE) → -51%;
• r exc RE-VSer → -43%
Conventional measures of profitability in 2000-12 (2000= 100)
and total rate of fall since 2006
Technical composition, labour productivity and real wage
(2000= 100)
Growth period:
• Decrease in TCC and Y/L until 2000, but strong rate of increase of both K and L
• K/L barely increases <10% in 2000-7, Y/L only increases 0,49%
• Labour productivity falls 3.3% in 1995-07, w (GDP deflator) descends by 6% in
1995-06
• Crisis: rise in TCC, Y/L and w (U)
“Capital productivity”, productivity efficiency of investment and
prices (1999= 100)
• Y/K (max r) falls by 27% in 2000-12
• Around 80% of the decrease originated in the lower level of Y/L reached by the
weak TCC
• Similar path for the profit rate and Y/K, as long as profit-share has remained
constant
III. SECTORAL ANALYSIS
Composition of net investment at current prices by type of assets
• Investment in construction, from 68.6% (1995) to 71-72% (2004-07)
• Increase in housing but slight decrease in other construction
Average price increase in investment by type of asset
Composition of total investment by sector of activity
Dynamics and level of capital accumulation by sector
Particular “relationship” between TCC and Y/L”, with 2 exceptions:
• Deep reestructuring in the industry since 1980s, and in the 90s, in favor of lowmedium technology branches
• Banking: high presence and dependence on real state activity
Annual average rates of labour productivity and price deflators
(1995-2007)
• The capital accumulation model based on the rise in price of assets leads not
only to stagnation in productivity, but also to an internal destructuring
• Construction, Trade-Trans-Hot and Professional services → ∆P> 4% annual …
• … but Y/L falls by 2-4% per year
Sectoral rates of profit (1995-2012)
• Higher r: Finances; Construction; Agriculture
• From 1997 to 2003, Construction is the only activity with an increasing and above
average rate of profit. Even after 2003, it still is one of the most profitable
sectors.