Transcript Impacts - The Global Change Program at the University of

"Energy Policy and Regulatory
Rollbacks: A National Perspective"
Frances Beinecke
4:00 p.m. Wednesday, March 27
1528 CC Little
• Frances Beinecke is Executive Director of the Natural
Resources Defense Council (NRDC), which uses law
and science to protect the planet's wildlife and wild
places and to ensure a safe and healthy environment for
all living things.
• Ms. Beinecke will also be having a career discussion
with students on Thursday, March 28, 11:30 a.m. in the
Honors Lounge (1315-1330 Mason Hall) on "NonProfits: Employment Opportunities and Strategies."
TODAY:
POTENTIAL
IMPACTS OF
CLIMATE
CHANGE
Impacts of or risks from climate change,
by reason for concern
no or virtually neutral impact or risk
somewhat negative impacts or low risks
more negative impacts or higher risks
Technical Summary Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability; IPCC 2001
Ex a m p l e s o f i m p ac t s r e s u l t i n g fr o m
c li m a te e v e nt s : S i m pl e Ex tr e me s
cha ng e s
i n e xtr e m e
Representative Examples of Projected Impactsb
(all high confidence of occurrence in some areasc)
Projected Changes during the
21st Century in Extreme Climate
Phenomena and their Likelihooda
Higher maximum temperatures;
more hot days and heat wavesd
over nearly all land areas (Very
Likelya)
p roj e ct e d


Increased in cidence of death & serious illness in older age gro ups & urban poor
Increased heat stress in livestock and wildl ife

Shift in tourist destinations

Increased risk of damage to a numb er of cro ps
 Increased electric cooling demand and reduced energy supply reliability

Decreased co ld-related human morbidi ty and morta lity

Increased flood, landslide, avalanche, and mudslide damag e

Increased soil erosion


Increased flood runoff could increase recharg e of some floodplain aquif ers
Increased pressure on government, private flood insurance systems, and
Higher (increasing) minimum
 Decreased r isk of damage to a numb er of cro ps and increased risk to others
temperatures; fewer cold days,
 Extended range and activity of some pest and disease vectors
frost days, and cold wavesd over
a
nearly all land areas (Very Likely )  Reduced heating energy demand
More intense precipitation events
(Very Likelya over many areas)
disaster relief
a
Likelihood refers to judgmental estimates of confidence used by TAR WGI : very likely (90-99% chance); likely (66-90% chance). Unless otherwise stated,
information on climate phenomena is taken from the Summary for Policymakers, TAR WGI .
b
These impacts can be lessened by appropriate response measures.
c
Based on information from chapters in this report; high confidence refers to probabilities between 67 and 95% as described in Footnote 6 of TAR WGII,
Summary for Policymakers.
d
Information from TAR WGI, Technical Summary, Section F.5.
e
Changes in regional distribution of tropical cyclones are possible but have not been established.
Technical Summary Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability; IPCC 2001
Ex a m p l e s o f i m p ac t s r e s u l t i n g fr o m
c li m a te e v e nt s : Com pl e x Ex tr e me s
Projected Changes during the
21st Century in Extreme Climate
Phenomena and their Likelihooda
Increased summer drying over
most mid-latitude continental
interiors and associated risk of
drought (Likelya)
Increase in tropical cyclone peak
wind intensities, mean and peak
precipitation intensities (Likelya
over many areas)e
Intensified droughts and floods
associated with El Niño events in
many different regions (Likelya)
Increased Asian summer monsoon
precipitation variability (Likelya)
Increased intensity of mid-latitude
storms (little agreement between
current models)d
p roj e ct e d
cha ng e s
i n e xtr e m e
Representative Examples of Projected Impactsb
(all high confidence of occurrence in some areasc)

Decreased cro p yields


Increased damage to buil ding found ations caused by gro und shrinkage
Decreased wa ter resource quantity and quality

Increased risk of forest fire

Increased risks to hum an life, risk of infectious disease epidemics, and many
other risks

Increased coastal eros ion and damage to coastal buildin gs and infrastructure

Increased damage to coastal ecosystems such as coral re efs and mangrove s

Decreased agr icultural and rangeland productivity in drought- and flood-prone

regions
Decreased hydro-powe r potential in droug ht-prone regions

Increased flood and drought mag nitude and damag es in temperate and tropical
Asia

Increased risks to hum an life and health


Increased property and infras tructure losses
Increased damage to coastal ecosystems
a
Likelihood refers to judgmental estimates of confidence used by TAR WGI : very likely (90-99% chance); likely (66-90% chance). Unless otherwise stated,
information on climate phenomena is taken from the Summary for Policymakers, TAR WGI .
b
These impacts can be lessened by appropriate response measures.
c
Based on information from chapters in this report; high confidence refers to probabilities between 67 and 95% as described in Footnote 6 of TAR WGII,
Summ ary for Policymakers.
d
Information from TAR WGI, Technical Summary, Section F.5.
e
Changes in regional distribution of tropical cyclones are possible but have not been established.
Technical Summary Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability; IPCC 2001
Reminder regarding the effects of deforestation
Examples of the pathology of forest loss
The Harrapan Desert
(Western Pakistan)
•
•
•
•
The region was once abundantly
forested and enjoyed an adequate
rainfall during the monsoon season.
The forest was gradually cleared by
peasant farmers who kept cattle and
goats that grazed on the scrub grass
that replaced the forest trees.
The rainfall was sustained over the
region until rather more than half of
the forests had been cleared. But
after that the region became arid and
the remaining forest decayed.
The region is now so dry that as a
semi-desert it can support only a
fraction of the people and other
organisms that once were there.
Easter Island







One of the most isolated places on Earth
2250 km from the next island; 166 sq km
Populated originally by Polynesian
settlers in 400 AD.
The island was once abundantly forested
with a species of palm dominant.
Islanders grew some vegetables but were
highly dependent on deep sea fishing.
Unique statue cult - 800 - 1000 giant
statues, 2 - 10 meters high, 20 - 50 tons
Explorers found few survivors, no trees,
and no sea-worthy vessels.
CARBON
SEQUESTRATION
“carbon management”
Land Use Issues
Land use change and forestry issues are important to national
and global inventories of greenhouse gases:
 vegetation can “sequester” or remove CO2 from the atmosphere and
store it for potentially long periods in above- and below-ground biomass
and in soils.
 soils, trees, crops, and other plants may make significant contributions
to reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by serving as C “sinks”
 humans can alter the biosphere through changes in land use and forest
management practices
--> alter the quantities of atmospheric and terrestrial C stocks
--> alter the natural C flux among biomass, soils, & the atmosphere
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Summary for Policymakers; IPCC 2001
Considerations for biological carbon mitigation options
• potential contributions to C pools over time
• sustainability, security, resilience, permanence, and robustness of
the C pool maintained or created
• compatibility with other land-use objectives
• leakage and additionality issues
• economic costs
• environmental impacts other than climate mitigation
• social, cultural, and cross-cutting issues, as well as issues of equity
• the system-wide effects on C flows in the energy and materials
sector
Climate Change 2001: Mitigation; IPCC 2001
Carbon Sequestration:
Removal and storage of atmospheric CO2
• Forests: increasing timber growth
– Regeneration and stocking control
• Replant under-stocked forest stands; harvest and regenerate mature
stands
• GHG reduction potential: U.S. forests could sequester ~ 160
MMTC/yr (~ 9% of annual U.S. GHG emissions)
• Rate of sequestration depends on forest age and cannot be sustained
indefinitely
– Biofuels production
• Increase production and harvest of biomass for use as fossil fuel
substitute
• GHG reduction potential: growing biofuel on 25,000 acres could
offset fossil fuel use and reduce GHG emissions by ~ 35 - 63
MMTC/yr. ( ~ 2 - 3.5%)
– Afforestation
http://www.4cleanair.org
Carbon Sequestration:
Removal and storage of atmospheric CO2
• Agriculture: increasing soil carbon content
– Conservation tillage and crop residue management
• Retains crop residue on or near soil surface
• GHG reduction potential: ~ 35 - 107 MMTC/yr.
– Improved cropping systems
– Restoring degraded soils; reducing soil erosion
http://www.4cleanair.org
Carbon Sequestration:
Removal and storage of atmospheric CO2
• Oceans: increasing delivery of C to deep ocean
– direct injection
• capture, separation, transport, and injection of CO2 into the deep sea
– Fertilization
• add iron to areas that are N- and P- rich --> phytoplankton blooms
(“prime the biological pump”)
Biological Pump
Ocean Carbon Storage
Direct Injection of CO2 into the mid-water column seeks to short circuit the natural
delivery of CO2 into the deep sea and minimize environmental impacts by avoiding the
biologically rich upper 1000 m.
BUSH RESPONSE
2002
The Clear Skies Initiative - Climate Impacts
Cuts SO2 emissions by 73% (direct and indirect
forcing)
2002 emissions:
2010 emissions:
2018 emissions:
11 million tons
4.5 million tons
3 million tons
Cuts NOx emissions by 67% (indirect forcing)
2002 emissions:
2008 emissions:
2018 emissions:
5 million tons
2.1 million tons
1.7 million tons
EPA Newsroom February 14, 2002, President Bush Announcement
Global Climate Change Initiative
Cut greenhouse gas intensity by 18% by 2012
GHG intensity: the ratio of GHG emissions to economic output
2002 GHG intensity:
2010 GHG intensity:
183 metric tons / million $ GDP
151 metric tons / million $ GDP
Improve GHG registry
enhance measurement accuracy, reliability and verifiability
consider emerging domestic and international approaches
Protect & provide transferable credit for emission reductions
to encourage voluntary reductions registration
to give credit to companies that can show real emissions reductions
EPA Newsroom February 14, 2002, President Bush Announcement
Global Climate Change Initiative, cont’d.
Review progress on climate change/take additional action if needed
in 2012
Enhanced funding for climate change-related programs
FY 2003: 4.5 B$ for global climate change-related activities (700 M$ inc.)
New and expanded domestic and international policies
expanded research & development of climate-related science &
technology
expanded use of renewable energy
business sector challenges
improvements in the transportation sector
incentives for sequestration
enhanced support for climate observation & mitigation in the
developing world
EPA Newsroom February 14, 2002, President Bush Announcement
WHAT CAN I DO?
Individual Emissions
• In the US, ~ 6.6 tons (almost 15,000 pounds C equivalent) of greenhouse
gases are emitted per person annually
– ~ 82%
• burning fossil fuels to generate electricity and power personal vehicles
– ~ 18%
• methane from wastes in our landfills, raising livestock, natural gas
pipelines, coal, industrial chemicals and other sources
Your Emissions
• You can affect ~ 32% of the total emissions per person (~ 4,800 pounds
of C equivalent) by the choices you make in three areas of your life:
– the electricity we use in our homes
– the waste we produce
– personal transportation
The other 68% of emissions are affected more by the types of industries in the
U.S., the types of offices we use, how our food is grown, and other factors.
http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/emissions/individual/index.html
What you can do Р a short list
Ґ
Use compact fluorescent light bulbs. They use one-fourth the energy and keep half a ton of
CO2 out of the atmosphere.
Ґ
Be sure your home is well insulated Р 40% of home energy use is for heating and cooling.
Ґ
Purchase appliances with the "Energy Star" rating from the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency*. They're more efficient and will cost you less to operate.
Ґ
If you live in a cold climate, lower your thermostat. If you live in a warm climate, raise it.
Turn it off when nobody is home.
Ґ
Turn your water heater down to 130 F and wrap in an insulating blanket.
Ґ
Purchase a more fuel-efficient vehicle next time.
Ґ
Avoid driving when you can; use public transportation, car pool, bike or walk.
Ґ
Contact your local, state and national representatives and tell them that this issue is
important to you! Pressure them to develop a comprehensive response to the global /
climate change issue.
*A full listing of these appliances is available on the EPA's online Energy Star website.
This list modified from < http:// www. worldwildlif e.org/graphics/space_wht.gif>
A longer list: http://www.e pa.gov/globalwar min g/emissions/indi vidual/ind ex.html
Suggested Reading
• Ethics of Consumption: The Good Life, Justice, and
Global Stewardship
– D. A. Crocker and T. Linden, Editors, 1998
• Our Ecological Footprint: Reducing Human Impact on
the Earth
– M. Wackernagel and W. Rees, 1996
• Earth at a Crossroads: Paths to a Sustainable Future
– H. Bossel, 1998
NEXT:
CASE STUDIES (3/27)
CHINA AND THE USA
STRATOSPHERIC (3/29)
OZONE DEPLETION