Transcript Climate Change: The Move to Action

Climate Change: The Move to Action
(AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. Rood
Cell: 301-526-8572
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
[email protected]
http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood
Winter 2012
February 9, 2012
Class News
• Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W12
• 2008 and 2010 Class On Line:
– http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php
/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action
The Current Climate (Released Monthly)
• Climate Monitoring at National Climatic
Data Center.
– http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html
• State of the Climate: Global
• Plant Hardiness - 2012
Today
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•
•
•
Uncertainty: Start of a Discussion
Projects
Observations of Physical Climate
Observations of Ecosystems
Uncertainty Discussion
• How uncertain do you think climate science is?
• What seems most uncertain to you?
• Is this uncertainty small enough to motivate
action, or is it so large that action is risky?
• Is better communication of uncertainty what
stands between us and doing something?
• Is reducing uncertainty critical?
Basic physics
of temperature
ncrease is very
simple, noncontroversial.
This represents the
uncertainties in the
observations
Note: There i
consistency
from many
models, man
scenarios,
that there will
be warming.
(1.5 – 5.5 C)
Also, it’s still
going up in
2100!
Academics and Scientists on Uncertainty
• Lack of knowledge or imperfect knowledge
• Two categories?
– Aleatory: Dependent upon chance /
randomness
– Epistimic : Knowledge based / could be
knowable
Academics and Scientists on Uncertainty
• “Climate Scientists”
– Value uncertainty
– Structural uncertainty
– Predictability
Academics and Scientists on Uncertainty
• “Climate Scientists” through eyes of a
model practitioner
– Scientific goal to get answer for the right reason
rather than get the right number
• Sources of Uncertainty
–
–
–
–
–
–
Boundary conditions
Initial conditions
Structural formulation of physics
Parametric uncertainty
Numerical formulation
Downscaling and scaling noise
Academics and Scientists on Uncertainty
• Rood in a DoE Strategy Document
– Quantifying primary variable uncertainty (e.g.,
temperature) and integrated responses (e.g.,
sea-level rise) and presenting this information
in a way suitable for risk analysis.
– Addressing uncertainty related to biases and
misrepresentation of the variability of
multiscale, coupled processes and
phenomena in climate models (e.g., mean
state tropical biases and sea ice).
Academics and Scientists on Uncertainty
• Rood in a DoE Strategy Document
– Addressing uncertainty related to
mechanisms and processes known to be
missing from climate models (e.g., ice sheet
models and groundwater flow).
– Exploring uncertainty related to specification
of emission scenarios and, more generally,
human enterprise.
Some Uncertainty References
• Climate Change Science Program, Synthesis
Assessment Report, Uncertainty Best Practices
Communicating, 2009
• Climate Change Science Program, Synthesis
Assessment Report, Transportation Gulf Coast, 2008
• Moss and Schneider, Uncertainty Reporting, 2000
• Pidgeon and Fischhoff, Communicating Uncertainty,
2011
• Lemos and Rood, Uncertainty Fallacy, 2010
Some Project Ideas
• Education
– Strategies when policy requires teaching “denial”
– Incorporation into engineering curriculum
– Earth science in K-12; admission to college
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•
•
Cities (esp Great Lakes) Adaptation
Climate in the Keystone Pipeline
Great Lakes
Seasonal forecast information / Long-term
projections / Use of information / Effectiveness
of communication efforts
Question
• Madden and Ramanathan Predicted in 1980
would be discernable in 2000.
• What would you do to evaluate the theory and
predictions of global warming?
– Surface of planet will warm
– Sea level will rise
– Weather will change
• Think about
•
•
•
•
Measurements
Feedbacks
Correlative behavior
Impacts
The Elements of the Data System
Research
Satellite
Applications: Prediction and Hindcast
-Objective evaluation of change
-Alternative scenarios for climate forcings
-How to use observations in prediction
-Predictions for multi-member ensembles
Applications: Process Definition
- Definition of physical mechanisms
- Use of observations to
define feedback mechanisms
- Reanalysis data sets
Operational Satellite
Observation mission support
- Quality Control/Instrument Monitoring
Conventional
- Validation (linking different scales)
- Definition of future observing system
- Retrieval of geophysical parameters
Basic physics
of temperature
ncrease is very
simple, noncontroversial.
This represents the
uncertainties in the
observations
Note: There i
consistency
from many
models, man
scenarios,
that there will
be warming.
(1.5 – 5.5 C)
Also, it’s still
going up in
2100!
Physical Climate System
The Current Climate
• Climate Monitoring at National Climatic
Data Center.
– http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html
• Global Analysis 2010 Annual Summary
• Global Analysis December 2010
• Wunderground climate page
February 2011
February 2011
Central England Temperature
• Central England Temperature from the
Hadley Center
Central England Temperatures
IPCC
Temperature
Observations
Note: It gets smoother
away from the surface.
Temperature
Observations
Santer et al.
2005
Temperature
Observations
Santer et al.
2005
20m Borehole Temperature Trends in Alaska
0C?
Hinzman et al 2005
IPCC Water
Vapor
Observations
Water Vapor
Upper tropospheric
temperature
IPCC
Precipitation
Observations
IPCC
Precipitation
Extreme
Events
Observations
IPCC Snow
Cover
Rood Blog 2
Rood Blog 3
IPCC Ice Sheet Accumulation
Pasterze Glacier tongue: 1893-2001
From Paul Houser, George Mason University
2001
1893
1976
Changes of terminus position
Austrian Alps Glaciers
1850
0
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
The Pasterze Glacier tongue receded
~1.2 km from 1893 to 2001
front position change (m)
-500
Glaciers in the European Alps
have lost 50% of their volume in
the last 150 years
-1000
-1500
-2000
Goldbergkees
Kl. Fleißkees
Westl. Wurtenkees
Östl. Wurtenkees
D. Hall/974
IPCC Sea level rise
Remember Thermo-Haline Circulation
• What was Haline?
– Why was it important?
– How might we change “halinity?”
• Way 1?
• Way 2?
Ocean Salinity (from R. Curry)
Curry et al. Nature 2003
Ocean Salinity (from Ruth Curry)
IPCC Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic
Hurricane Zone
IPCC Ocean Heat Content
ERROR IN DATA
Error in Ocean Data Set
Ocean Cooling Correction
-Outgoing Energy
-Sea level rise
-Direct comparisons with other observations
Some interesting facts
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•
The old, incorrect data remain all over
the web.
The correction of the observations is a
routine aspect of quality control and
scientific investigation
– Often gets labeled as “manipulation.”
•
If data were left “uncorrected” then
arguments that there are errors left in the
data.
Ocean Heat Content
•
Initial work by Syd Levitus and
colleagues showed an increase
in the heat content of the
oceans over the second half of
the 20th century (Levitus et al.,
2001, Science)
IPCC Sea Ice
What is happening here?
Ice Shelf Collapse
January 31, 2002
March 5, 2002
Some Icy Link
• Snow and Ice Data Center
• State of the Cryosphere
Correlated behavior of different parameters
Fig. 2.5. (State of Climate 2009) Time
series from a range of indicators that
would be expected to correlate
strongly with the surface record.
Note that stratospheric cooling is an
expected consequence of greenhouse
gas increases. A version of this figure
with full references is available at
www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-climate/ .
Today
• Observations of Physical Climate
• Observations of Ecosystems
Edges
• “Edges” are places where we really might
be able to see things definitively. What
are the edges?
– Ice (Phase transition)
– Deserts
– Seasons
There is an accumulation of observations
• Physical and biological impacts correlated
with temperature increase and dryer
conditions.
– What is the relationship between warming and
surface dryness?
– Strongly correlated with population and where
we have looked.
Project Budburst
• A community science activity collect
observations of the onset of spring
– Project Budburst
• How to observe the onset of spring
– National Phenology Network
Project of Trees
• A community science activity to collect
observations on types of trees
– Canadian Plant Hardiness Site
How would these changes be revealed?
 Changes in vegetation activity can be characterized through
1. changes in growing season
2. changes in “productivity”
Increases in growing season
delayed
fall
earlier
spring
Jan
Jul Aug
NDVI
Dec
Increases in Productiviy
Increase
Jan
Jul Aug
NDVI
From Compton J. Tucker, NASA Goddard
Dec
Interestingly significant news story
Hardiness Map
• Arbor Day Foundation Maps of Hardiness
Zones.
Table 1 from Walther et al. (2002)
Walther, G. R., et al., Ecological Response to Recent Climate
Change, Nature, 416, 389-395, 2002
Table 2 from Walther et al. (2002)
Spring is coming earlier
From Walther et al, 2002
Global
distribution of
changes
sensitive to
temperature
IPCC Technical
Summary WG2
Can we get a global perspective from satellites?
• NDVI: Normalized Difference Vegetation
Index
– Looks at radiative budgets, measurements,
and the absorption of photosynthetically
active radiation, relative to the rest of the
radiation.
How would these changes be revealed?
 Changes in vegetation activity can be characterized through
1. changes in growing season
2. changes in seasonal NDVI magnitude
Increases in growing season
delayed
fall
earlier
spring
Jan
Jul Aug
NDVI
Dec
Increases in NDVI magnitude
Increase
Jan
Jul Aug
NDVI
From Compton J. Tucker, NASA Goddard
Dec
Northern Hemisphere
May-September NDVI Changes
1992-1999
1982-1999
From Compton J. Tucker, NASA Goddard
From Kirsten de Beures
Length of
Growing
Season
From Ranga B. Myneni, Boston University
Changes in the Amplitude of the Keeling Curve
(Keeling et al, 1996)
Amplitude has increased
40% in Alaska, Canada
Amplitude has increased
20% in Hawaii
The phase, start of the
decrease, start of the
growing season, has
moved forward 7 days.
Geographical extent of warming
Osborn Spatial Extent of Warming
Coherent and Convergent?
• There is evidence in both the physical climate
system and ecosystems of systematic global
warming.
• This evidence shows correlated behavior
through many systems.
• Taken independently each piece could be
challenged.
• Taken together the evidence converges.
– Consistent with human-related forcing
Coherent and Convergent?
• Taken independently each piece could
be challenged.
• Taken together the evidence converges.
– Consistent with human-related forcing
• Consistent with human-related forcing
– Really?
Attribution
• The physical climate and ecological
observations in the previous are consistent
with the planet is warming.
• How do we decide that this is consistent
with human-induced warming?