Transcript Arnaud - Ev-K2-CNR

Centre d'Etudes
Himalayennes
CryosPheric responses to Anthropogenic PRessures in the
HIndu Kush-Himalaya regions: impacts on water resources
and society adaptation in Nepal
DHM
Main objectives of PAPRIKA-Nepal
• To contribute to a more accurate assessment of glacier retreat and
snow cover changes in the HKH region and a better understanding
of the surface processes governing glacier and snow melt
• To evaluate the distribution and variability of absorbing aerosol
particles from anthropogenic origin transported to the high altitude
regions of HKH
• To establish and model the current energy budget of snow surfaces,
including the effect of absorbing aerosols deposited in snow and
their impact on water melting rates.
• To provide climate trends and scenarios at the regional level
• To use these projections to quantify current and future water
resource in the area of Nepal
• To study adaptation options of mountain communities to changes in
water availability.
• To propose plausible adaptation strategies for changing risks,
including analysis of their economic efficiency and benefits within the
social welfare context.
Work Packages
ELEMENT 1: Water Ressources input, Climate and Anthropogenic Pressures on
the Cryosphere / Climate and Monsoon System
WP1
Cryospheric resources:
glacier melting and
snow cover mapping
WP4
Modelling the interaction
between snow pack,
radiation and aerosols
WP2
Optically Active
Aerosols in snow
observation and modelling
WP3
Climate and Monsoon
Variability Modelling
Work Packages
WP5
Water Resources in Future Climate Change Scenarii
WP6
Perception of Changes by
Population
and adaptation within the
four Nepal Geographic Units
WP7
Capacity Building and
Dissemination of Information
ELEMENT 2: Impact on the Water Resource System and Population
Regional model (MARdm) and downscaling
Land Emission
Atmospheric Ice core
Composition
BC
Rainfall
Snow-pack/glacier
Modelling
Meteorological
observation
Snow Remote
Glacier sensing
Run-Off
Benchmark
glaciers Hydrological modelling
Water resources in future climate change scenarios
New Scientific Knowledge (data base, new models, new physics)
Capacity building and dissemination of information
General circulation model (LMDz)
Perception of changes by population
and adaptation
Climate scenarios
Nepal region
WP 1: Water ressource and cryosphere: snow and glacier
melting (observation and modelling)
Aerosols: Modification of thermal
atmospheric structure, water vapor,
clouds and precipitation
Aerosol impact according to glacier
faces (snow, ice, debris covered)
WP2: OPTICALLY ACTIVE AEROSOL IN
ATMOSPHERE AND SNOW
Snow samples from
Pyramid , Pokalde
and Changri Nup
glaciers
Brown Cloud seen from the NCO-P station,
transported up through the valley
NCO-P station, close to Pyramid laboratory
WP3: Climate and monsoon variability
The model(s) used:
LMDz-ORCHIDEE-INCA (SST fixed)
Computes the aerosol concentrations and
deposition, represent the change in albedo
Coupled IPSL model
Changes in the intensity, onset phases and
extent of the monsoon
Work package 4: MODELLING THE INTERACTION BETWEEN SNOWPACK,
RADIATION, AND THE ABSORBING MATERIAL DEPOSITED IN THE SNOW
SNOWPACK MODELING USING CROCUS
with INPUT from
observations or
ATMOSPHERE
regional / global models
Incoming
solar
radiation
Implementation of the effect
of BC on snow albedo and
radiation transfer in the
snowpack
albedo
incoming
snow
radiation
type
Incoming
IR
radiation
Sensible /
latent
heat fluxes
rain snow
BC deposition
Local 1D modeling of optical
snowpack properties for different
conditions / altitudes:
• glaciers
• seasonal snowpack
++
+
Wind
SNOWPACK
- conduction
- melting / freezing
- percolation
- settling
- metamorphism
GROUND
geothermal
heat flux
melting
run-off
++
+


temperature BC content
radiation
also: density
specific surface area
diffusion / advection
Quantification of BC impact in
snow on
• melting rates and days
• contribution of the snow melting
to the total run-off
• sensitivities to future changes in
temperature and atmospheric BC
Paprika - WP5
Future of the water resources
• Input from WP1, WP3, WP4
• 3 components
– Glacier melt
– Snowpack melt
– Rainfall
– Headwater < 200 km²
– Upper valley > 1000 km²
– Koshi River basin > 20000 km²
• Simulate the discharge under different
scenarios at different scales
WP 6: Perception of changes by
populations and adaptation
within the four Nepal geographic
units
=> consequences of climate change on populations:
- changes in water uses due to variations in the
availability of the resource + the socio-economic
impact.
- flood risks in the Terai plain
=> to map areas concerned by change and risk
+ to estimate affected populations [ using GIS &
population census data].
WP7: Local communities and capacity
building and dissemination
Objectives:
1/ To confront scientific and local knowledge on
the evolution of natural resources and on people’s
vulnerability in the face of natural hazards;
3/ To define strategies and plans to enhance local
capacities in the face of environmental hazards;
4/ To provide authorities with recommendations
on how to consider and integrate people’s ability
Lower Koshi River basin
Saptari District – Nepal
Method:
Participatory 3Dimensional
Mapping (P3DM) in
Irosin, Philippines,
in January 2010