Transcript PPT

Needs for new data in climate change
analysis
Robin Webster, carbonbrief.org
The Carbon Brief
(www.carbonbrief.org)
• Focus on fact-checking media coverage of
climate and energy debate in the UK
• Came into existence as a result of misleading
media coverage in the wake of ‘Climategate’.
• Our experience reflects how climate data is
used by the media, NGOs & politicians
Media coverage of climate science
• Statistics on global temperature rise from: UK
Met Office, NASA/ GISS, NCDC
• Arctic sea ice decline: data from US National
Snow and Ice Data Center
• Temperature rise projections from International
Energy Agency (IEA) in the World Energy Outlook
• Interim papers and Assessment Reports from
IPCC e.g. SREX
• Peer-reviewed research papers released online
9th June 2011
9th October 2011
12th October 2011
13th July 2011
18th October 2011
Media coverage, September –
October 2012
… At one point last week, Britain’s 3,500 turbines were contributing 12
megawatts (MW) to the 38,000MW of electricity we were using. (The
Neta website, which carries official electricity statistics, registered this
as “0.0 per cent”).”
Some recent questions…
Prompted by recent events and current policies
• Was Hurricane Sandy caused by, or related to
climate change?
• Does wind power produce emissions?
• Will we get an ice-free Arctic? When?
• How much will an expansion of wind power cost
energy consumers?
• Are gas prices going to go up or down in the
future?
Energy data sources I have recently
used…
• Reports and underlying modelling from DECC
• DECC Digest of Energy Statistics (DUKES)
• Quarterly data reports and summaries from
market regulator Ofgem
• Neta website
• Reports from the National Grid (ENSG)
• DECC Renewable Energy Performance
Statistics (RESTATS)
It’s data war!
£200
19th Sept
Because journalists need numbers – any numbers…
£300
£85
18th Sept
18th Sept
Lessons learned from our experiences
• Public debate focused on what we are experiencing
now or in the forseeable future
• A great deal of attention paid to data and projections –
particularly numbers that can be turned into headlines
• Journalists dig into documents and statistics to get
headlines.
• There is a call for more transparency – the rise of
citizen journalism. Where does a particular number
come from? What assumptions lie behind it? Is the
working freely available on the internet?
Lessons learned from our experiences
• There is a lot of jargon, very little public-facing
material, basic results don’t get written down
• Numbers will continue to be uncertain - energy
statistics are political by their very nature. Explaining
assumptions helps.
• There is a real desire from some quarters to
misrepresent the data
• Difficult to mitigate against this entirely but
transparency and clarity go a long way. Someone on
hand to talk to makes a big difference.
• Future areas: more focus on adaptation,
geoengineering technologies?
[email protected]
www.carbonbrief.org