Transcript Oliver Schaefer, EREC

European Climate Change Programme
Renewable Energy, Progress and way forward
by
Oliver Schäfer, European Renewable Energy Council - EREC
Brussels, Monday, 24th October 2005
Growth and costs of major climate related natural disasters
600billion
€
500
400
300
200
100
0
1950-1959
1960-1969
1970-1979
1980-1989
1990-1999
source: Münchner Rück
Renewables Are the Key
Solution to Climate Change
Why energy efficiency in combination with
renewables development has to be the number 1
priority
-
Climate change
Oil price/dependency
Air pollution
Nuclear risk
Electricity/gas prices
Competitiveness of EU businesses
Job creation potential
we have little time, because
100 Millions of citizens from
China, India, Brazil, Mexico,…
are
imitating those in the US, EU,
Japan on consumption patterns
Implications of delays in reductions of CO2
Source: Malte Meinshausen, Swiss Technical University
…and Harry Potter can not help
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
Wave/Tidal
Biomass
PV
Off Shore Wind
Not Viable
Technical Viable
Economically Viable
On Shore Wind
Energy Efficiency
Carbon Capture and Storage
Generation IV
Fusion
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
The Reality Today
Market Development in Wind and
PV
Cumulative Wind Energy Installed Capacity
50
GW 45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
EUROPE
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.2
1.7
2.5
3.5
4.8
6.5
9.7
12.9
17.3
23.2
28.6 34.2
W ORLD
1.7
2.0
2.3
2.8
3.5
4.8
6.1
7.6
10.2
13.6
17.4
23.9
31.1
39.3 47.3
Growth rates 1994-1999 : 31.2%
1999-2004 : 28.3%
Source: EWEA
The Top-10 Markets in the World
18000
2002
16000
2003
2004
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
Chin
a
P.R.
Japa
n
UK
s
Neth
erlan
d
Ita ly
Ind ia
ark
Denm
US A
Sp ai
n
ny
0
Ge rm
a
MW
Source: EWEA
The Top 10 Suppliers in the World
Others
4%
VESTAS
(Denmark)
32%
MITSUBISHI
(Japan)
SUZLON (India)
3%
4%
GE WIND (USA)
11%
NORDEX
(Germany)
2%
REPOWER
(Germany)
3%
SIEMENS
(Denmark)
6%
GAMESA
(Spain)
17%
ECOTECNIA
(Spain)
3%
ENERCON
(Germany)
15%
Source: BTM Consult
Cumulative Photovoltaic Installed Capacity (MWp)
MWp
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
World
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
314
371
432
502
580
669
EU-25
Growth rates 1994-1999 : 18.0%
1999-2004 : 30.5%
795
948 1150 1428 1829 2387 3151 4345
90
128
188
284
392
594 1004
Source: Eurec Agency, EPIA, Observ‘ER
The Top PV Markets in the World
1200
MWp
1000
2004
2003
2002
2001
800
600
400
200
bu rg
Lu xe
m
Ita ly
Spa i
n
erla n
ds
Neth
Aust
ral ia
P.R.C
hi na
In dia
USA
any
Germ
Japa
n
0
Source: EPIA, Observ‘ER, IEA-PVPS
Top PV producing countries in the world
400
2001
350
2003
2002
300
250
200
150
100
50
P.R.C
hina
ce
F ran
India
lia
Aust
ra
Sp ai
n
Germ
an y
USA
0
Jap a
n
MWp
Source: EPIA, Observ‘ER, IEA-PVPS
The Top PV Manufactures in the World
350
MWp
2001
300
2002
2003
2004
250
200
150
100
50
che C
ell
Deut
s
r
Sol a
R WE
ton
Is ofo
San y
o
Sola
r
She l
l
ll s
Q-ce
bis hi
Mi tsi
BP S
olar
Kyoc
e ra
Sha r
p
0
Source: EPIA, Observ‘ER, IEA-PVPS
Policy Works!
RES target for
Europe
20 % by 2020
The European Parliament key recommendations
- a 20% binding target for renewable energies in total energy
consumption by 2020 (equivalent to 33% electricity in 2020, up
from a level of 12.9% in 20024);
- tax cuts to encourage renewables;
- fair market conditions for electricity produced from renewable
energies;
- end to distortions in the energy market (ownership unbundling,
market concentration, environmental harmful subsidies to fossil
fuels and nuclear energy);
- a clear increase of R&D budget for renewables in the upcoming
FP7 to compensate the historical bias in EU energy research
programmes;
20 % by 2020
• A contribution of RES to total inland
consumption of 20 % by 2020 is possible
• The contribution of RES to electricity
production will be more than 33 % in 2020
• The contribution of RES to heat production
will be 25 % in 2020.
AGR needed to meet the White Paper
Targets
Benefits of 20 % target
 Total RES investment of 443 billion € in the period
2001-2020
 126,7 – 323,9 billion € of cumulated avoided
external costs between 2001 and 2020
 115,8 billion € of cumulative avoided fuel cost
reduction in EU 15 (2001-2020)
 Creation of more than 2 million full time jobs until
2020
 728 million tons/year of CO2 emission reduction in
2020, representing a decrease of 17,3 %
compared to 1990
Annual CO2 Emission Reductions
due to RES Penetration
(2001 – 2020)
2010
Mt/year
2020
Mt/year
Wind
99
236
PV
2.2
24
Biomass
176
326
Hydro
23
35
Geothermal
5.8
15
Solar thermal
14
92
TOTAL RES
320
728
% of total EU15 CO2
emissions in 2000
9.6%
21.9%
Conclusion
• RE has the technological potential to replace
fossil fuels as mainstream energy source.
• RE is integral part of the energy supply in many
countries today.
• RE has tangible economic, ecological and social
benefit.
• BUT: RE market development depends on a
coherent, predictable, supportive political & legal
framework.
Think the `Unthinkable`
The EREC `Advanced Policies
Scenario` (APS)
Why Scenarios?
•
•
•
•
images of alternative futures
neither predictions nor forecasts
image of how the future could unfold
useful tools for investigating alternative future
developments and their implications
Scenarios can create a vision for the
future and guide decision makers
`Scenarios help us understand the limitations of
our ‘mental maps’ of the world – to think the
unthinkable, anticipate the unknowable and
utilise both to make better strategic decisions.`
The IEA AS is a welcomed move, but it
has too many limitations – it does
not think the `unthinkable`:
A Substantial Policy Shift
Assumptions Based On:
• Ambitious growth rates
• Additional support measures
• Regions already active in the promotion of
renewables will increase their efforts
• Higher prices for conventional energy supply
• Growing support for electrification of the poor regions
by renewables.
• Implementation of the Kyoto protocol and additional
measures
• International cooperation
• Total energy consumption are based on a scenario
from the IIASA
The Contribution of Renewable Energy Sources
to the World Energy Supply in 2040 – Projections
in Mtoe – APS
Electricity Scenario
Exemplary detailed scenario for electricity –
APS
Comparison between IEA-AP and EREC
Scenarios (2030)
IEA-AS
EREC-DCP
EREC-AP
RES Total (Mtoe)
2345
3416
4289
RES- E (TWh)
6836
11770
17109
WIND (TWh)
~1000
4590
6307
PV (TWh)
~100
1280
2570
What is not the Solution Hydrogen
Efficiency of different engine solutions
•
•
•
•
diesel: 21 -23%
hydrogen from gas reforming: 30%
Hydrogen from electrolyses: 12 -15%
Hybrid: 30 - 35%
nuclear hydrogen for cars/lorries
Overall efficiency of nuclear hydrogen 12%
– 33% of efficiency to produce electricity from NP
– 5 kWh to produce 1m3 H2 (electroloyses)
– 1m3 H2 produces 1.8 kWh el
To fuel 40% of world transport demand in 2060
would require at least 4000 NPP of 1000 MW
!
A Streamlined Internal
Electricity Market
Competition in the internal electricity market ?
“Much work still has to be done to deal with the dominant and even
monopolistic positions of the incumbent operators and
investments will be needed to guarantee the interoperability of
grids and networks, interconnection and an adequate level of
capabilities and infrastructure”
Loyola de Palacio, 13 October 2004
“The current level of competition is not encouraging. (…) In most
national markets, customer switching rates are modest,
substantial barriers remain for new entrants, market structures are
highly concentrated and, last but not least a single European energy
market has not been achieved.”
Mario Monti, 21 September 2004
Distortions in the internal electricity market
•
4 Commission benchmarking reports: Endless distortions
•
National and regional monopolies / oligopolies
•
No real consumer choice
•
Lack of interconnectors
•
Little separation of production and transmission
•
Power companies acting on both demand and supply side in the
wholesale market
•
75% of electricity subsidies goes to conventional power
•
Euratom shields nuclear (33% of total EU production) from
internal market rules (since 1958!)
•
Complete absence of any meaningful internalisation of
environmental costs
Liberalised Markets?
• 95% of the EU power market is still affected
by huge market distortions
• Electricity prices do not reflect full costs as
long as polluter pays principle is missing
• Subsidies -direct and indirect- to conventional
power production is still massive
• National and regional monopolies /
oligopolies
Competition not effective
Ownership-Market Concentration
For more information
www.erec-renewables.org
EREC - European Renewable Energy Council
Renewable Energy House
26, rue du Trône - B-1000 Brussels
T: +32 2 546 1933 - F: +32 2 546 1934
[email protected]