Transcript PPT 3.6 MB - START - SysTem for Analysis Research and Training

Vulnerability of the Caribbean
to Climate Change
The Coastal Zone of Belize
Carlos Fuller
Caribbean Community
Climate Change Centre (CCCCC)
Projected Temperature Rise
Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100
relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1oC
Projected Change in Precipitation
Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990
Impacts of Climate Change
in the Caribbean
• US Country
Studies
Programme
• GFDL, CCC,
UKMO, GISS
• Temperature rise
(1-2°C)
• Change in
rainfall patterns
(±10-20%)
• Sea level rise (450 cm)
Sea Level Rise
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Erosion
Coastal flooding
Inundation
Saltwater intrusion
Mangroves
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Tourist destinations
Human settlements
Water supply
Agriculture
Aquaculture
Fisheries
Socio-economic Importance of the
Coastal Zone to Belize
Adapted from a
presentation by:
Ms. Tanya Williams
The Coastal Zone of Belize
Complex system comprised of:
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iii.
iv.
v.
vi.
the barrier reef
the three offshore atolls
hundreds of patch reefs
extensive seagrass beds
mangrove forests
>1,000 cayes
The Coastal Zone
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Home to several endangered species
such as:
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ii.
iii.
iv.
the West Indian Manatee
American crocodile
marine turtles and,
several birds
Socio-economic Importance of the
Coastal Zone
Tourism
• 60% of the estimated 172,300
tourist arrivals in 1999 visited
sites in the coastal zone.
• Approx. 7,000 employed in
the industry.
• Single largest contributor to
Belize’s economic growth.
Branching coral
Brain coral
Coral bleaching events are expected to increase
Socio-economic Importance of the
Coastal Zone
Fishing
• Direct employment 2000
– 3000 employed per
year.
• Indirect employment
through processing,
sales and maintenance.
• Subsistence fishing
• In 1999, total financial
value was Bz$19.4
million
Socio-economic Importance of the
Coastal Zone
Aquaculture
• Eight farms in
operation 3,000 –
4,000 acres on pine
ridge coastal lands.
• Generates
approximately
Bz$62.5 million
Socio-economic Importance of the
Coastal Zone
Human Settlements
• Six of the ten major
residential centers are
located on the coast.
(Belize City, San Pedro,
Corozal, Dangriga, Punta
Gorda, Ladyville)
• 45% of the population
resides in coastal areas
(1999).
Water Supply
• San Pedro
– Desalination plant
• Placencia
– Piped across lagoon
• Belize City
– Supply located 17 miles inland
– During drought, pumping limited to high tide
– Salt water intrusion?
AVVA Vulnerability Analysis
• Entire coastline videotaped and analyzed
in 1995
• Sea level rise of 4, 30 and 50 cm.
• Time periods of 25,50 and 100 yrs.
• Little impact in 25 yrs
• 50-100% of beaches lost in 100 yrs
Ultimate Adaptation Option
• Belize City destroyed in 1931 and 1961 by
hurricanes
• New capital (Belmopan) created 50 miles
inland
Socio-economic Importance of the
Coastal Zone
Agriculture
• Small scale farming on
riparian lands, coastal
plains, etc to meet local
needs.
• Sugar generated
approximately Bz$84.5
million (2000).
• Citrus farming (Mullins
River to South Stann Creek)
Bz$76 million in 2000.
Socio-economic Importance of the
Coastal Zone
Agriculture continued
• Banana (Sittee, South Stann Creek, Swasey and
Bladden Rivers) Bz$65 million.
• Coastal communities of Corozal, Dangriga and
Independence heavily rely on these sectors
Vulnerability Studies in Agriculture
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1995
DSSAT
Beans, corn and rice
1-2°C rise in temp
± 10-20% change in precip
Result: 10-20% decline in yields
Socio-economic Importance of the
Coastal Zone
Industry and Commerce
• Major centres located in the coastal zone
(main centers – Independence, Belize City,
Ladyville and the Corozal Commercial Free
Zone).
• Employ a national total of approximately 5,600.
• Garment industry generated approximately
Bz$40 million in 2000.
Socio-economic Importance of the
Coastal Zone
Ports
• Three main ports: Belize City, Commerce Bight and
Big Creek.
• Commerce Bight – citrus products
• Big Creek – banana
Socio-economic Importance of the
Coastal Zone
Marine Dredging
• 1999 = 168,010 cubic
yards of dredging.
Primarily for landfill or for
navigational
purposes.(State of the
Coast Report 1999)
• Most operations are
related to tourism or real
estate developments.
(State of the Coastal
Zone Report 1995)
Socio-economic Importance of the
Coastal Zone
Oil Drilling
• No major commercial fields for oil found.
• Exploratory wells have been drilled, both inland and
offshore.
Bioprospecting
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Exploration and extraction of biological diversity to
be used for genetic and biochemical resources.
Possible multi-million dollar industry
Amendment to Fisheries Act Chapter 210 of 2000
includes bioprospecting.
Requirements/Suggestions
• Downscaling of global climate models
• Vulnerability studies of other economically
important crops – bananas, citrus, sugar
• Integrated vulnerability studies - salt water
intrusion
• Improve data collection
– Topography, bathymetry, microscale monitoring
• Implementation of “no regrets” adaptation
measures
– IWRM, ICZM, EIA, Disaster mitigation
Other Concerns
• Forestry
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1999-2000
Pine bark beetle infestation
75% of pine forest destroyed
High temps & high humidity
Poor management
Climate change signal?
Needs analysis
Impacts on timber industry and biodiversity
Contributes to emissions