Transcript Climate change and tourism

Climate change and tourism
Norwegian vulnerability and the case of
winter tourism in Voss
Guro Aandahl
12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and
Hospitality Research, 3rd October 2003,
Stavanger
Global average temperature since 1850
•
Source: Climatic Research Unit og UK Met Office/Hadley Centre
www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/
Map of Europe in a global climate model
Datapoints in a
downscaled model
and Norwegian
municipalitites
What can we expect (RegClim)
source: Hanssen-Bauer, RegClim
• The larger picture is more robust than local climatic variations
• Different models give very different results for the patterns of
atmospheric circulation, which is important for local patterns of
wind and precipitation
• The models give quite similar results for decadal temperature
increase in Scandinavia
• Most robust scenario: Increased precipitation in late autumn
and winter, and increased tempteratures in winter
CICERO’s vulnerability mapping
• To develop indicators of vulnerability in Norwegian
municipalitites and map these using a GIS
• Sectors: Agriculture, winter tourism and forestry
• Discussed the maps and indicators with focus groups in selected
municipalities
Voss
• 13700 inhabitants
• Tourism employs ca 7 % directly
(in hotels and restaurants)
• Varied local climate, from
coastal to inland
• Topographic variation, from 50
m.a.s to ca 1000 m.a.s
Relevant climate parametres for winter
toursim
• Duration of winter season
• Snow depth, absolute change
• Snow depth, relative change
RegClim’s downscaled climate scenario for
Norway
• A regionally downscaled climate model
• We compare mean values for the years 1980-2000 to mean
values for the years 2030-2050
Change in duration of
winter
(days/year <0˚C)
Snow depth change
(average Jan, Feb and March, in cm and %)
Combined index
of exposure to
climate change
Voss vs
competing
destinations
Climate change in Voss
NB. Results from one model. Not a weather forecast!
• Duration of winter: - 19 days
• Snow depth, absolute change: - 85 cm
• Snow depth, relative change: - 49 %
Changes in precipitation, Voss (RegClim)
Changes in wind force, Voss (RegClim)
Adaptation
”Det finnes ikke dårlig vær, bare dårlige
klær.”
Adaptive capacity and vulnerability
• Vulnerability = the risk of being exposed to a stress and lack of
ability to cope with such a stress without suffering damaging
loss
Indicators of adaptive capacity in Norwegian
municipalities
• Sensitivity
– Employment in hotels and restaurants
• Demographic factors
– Age composition of working population (55-66 yrs as % of 20-66)
– Migration (trend the last 10 yrs)
– Dependency rate (children/teenagers and elderly as % of population)
• Economic factors
– Tax income per capita
– Government transfers per capita
– Employment prognosis
Climate sensitivity:
Employment in Hotels
and restaurants
Demographic and economic factors
Adaptive capacity
winter tourism –
composite index
Exposure and adaptive capacity –
a comparison
Input and conclusions from focus group
interview
• 1970s: Voss biggest winter sports destination in
Norway
• 1988: the winter disappeared
• End of 1990s: steady decline
• 1999/2000: Investment in Snow machines, 1718 mill NOK (Govt contribution 7,5)
Input and conclusions from focus group
interview
• Climate in competing destinations
• Climate in main markets (Bergen etc)
• Winter vs summer
– Tour operators want both seasons
Climate and place identity
From www.visitvoss.no