Transcript Adaptation

Adapting our cities:
New paradigms for successful development
Graeme I Pearman
GP Consulting Pty Ltd
Monash University:
Geography and Environmental Science
Monash Sustainability Institute
Faculty of Business Economics
Adapting our cities:
New paradigms for successful development
• Adaptation as a response to climate change
• Adapting to what?
• Key opportunities
• Key threats
• Changing our mind-set
Adapting our cities:
New paradigms for successful
development
Adaptation as a response
to climate change
• Climate change: an
example of nonsustainability
• Significant change is
inevitable
• Adaptation buys
time, grasps
opportunities
•
Adapting to
•
•
•
•
Key opportunities
Key threats
Changing our mind-set
Adapting to what?
• “ the most important lesson learned from
the climate change issue may be that
societal evolution, as devoid of direction
and long-term strategy as it is, has led our
behaviour and societal institutions in
directions that are unsustainable not only
through changing climate, but in many
other ways”.
Pearman and Härtel (2009)
Magnitude/sensitivity
to change
Probability
of change
Mitigate
SocioEconomic
capacity
Potential
Exposure
Risk
Spontaneous
Adaptive Capacity
Willingness
to adapt
Vulnerability
Managed
adaptation
Resilience
Strategy
How well do we assess risk?
• There are 6 million parts in a Boeing 747
– How many could be removed or rendered
inoperable before you would decide not to fly?
• IPCC concluded that there is a 50% chance of
a 20-30% of all species being at risk with a
warming of 1.5-2.5oC
– There has been virtually no media or public
attention to this risk
• What are the consequences of
inoperable ecosystems?
Letter from the American Association for the Advancement of
Science to the US Senate, October 21, 2009
“Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, …rigorous
scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are
the primary driver”.
“…based on multiple independent lines of evidence, and contrary assertions are inconsistent
with an objective assessment of the vast body of peer-reviewed science”.
“strong evidence that ongoing climate change will have broad impacts on society, including
the global economy and on the environment”.
“severity of climate change impacts is expected to increase substantially in the coming decades. If we are to
avoid the most severe impacts of climate change, emissions of greenhouse gases must be
dramatically reduced”.
“adaptation will be necessary to address those impacts that are already
unavoidable”.
“Adaptation efforts include improved infrastructure design, more sustainable management of water and
other natural resources, modified agricultural practices, and improved emergency responses to storms, floods,
fires and heat waves”.
American Association for the Advancement of Science
American Chemical Society
American Geophysical Union
American Institute of Biological Sciences
American Meteorological Society
American Society of Agronomy
American Society of Plant Biologists
American Statistical Association
Association of Ecosystem Research Centers
Botanical Society of America
Crop Science Society of America
Ecological Society of America
Natural Science Collections Alliance
Organization of Biological Field Stations
Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
Society of Systematic Biologists
Soil Science Society of America
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Adapting our cities:
New paradigms for successful
development
•
Adaptation as a response to climate change
Adapting to what?
– Changed climate
– Changed energy
futures
•
•
•
•
Key opportunities
Key threats
Changing our mind-set
Conclusions
Adaptation: essential part of coping
Global mean temperature change (oC)
Emissions peak:
3
Temperatures peak:
2015
Uncertainty range:
▬ 10th percentile
▬ 50th percentile
▬ 90th percentile
~2065
2
1
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
Parry et al. (2009). Overshoot, adapt and recover. Nature 458, 1102-1103.
Key issues for development industries 1
Increased
• Energy consumption/prices
• Use of alternative energy sources
• Heat effects from overheating
• Damage from more intense storms
Key issues for development industries 2
Increased
• Damage from flooding
• Damage from soil drying
• Bushfire risk
• Sustainability credentials
Adapting our cities:
New paradigms for successful
building
•
•
Adaptation as a response to climate change
Adapting to what?
Key opportunities
– Energy efficiency
– Urban form
– Energy sourcing
– Transportation
•
•
•
Key threats
Changing our mind-set
Conclusions
Australian greenhouse-gas abatement
cost curve for 2020
X
Cost of abatement
A$/t CO2e
Reduction below 1990 levels, %
Break-even point
Soil CO2
Non-CO2 energy
Coal-to-gas shifts, new builds
100
Energy effic., basic materials prod.
Reforestatio
Forest management n
50
Afforestration, pasture
Agriculture, livestock
0
Industry
Buildings
Forestry
Power
Transport
Agriculture
Avoided deforestation
20
30
Geothermal
Conservation tillage
Residential heating/ventilation efficiency
Refrigeration efficiency
On-shore wind
Biofuels
Afforestation, cropland
Residential lighting efficiency
Coal-to-gas shift
New build windows
Stand-by savings residential
Agriculture, waste
Lighting efficiency commercial
Coal CCS retrofit
Car fuel economy
Water heating residential efficiency
Biomass
Commercial air handling efficiency
Solar PV
Commercial heating efficiency
Commercial air conditioning efficiency
Abatement below business as usual (Mt CO2e)
Motor systems
-50
-100
-150
-200
0
50
100
150
200
Source: Based on McKinsey Australia Climate Change Initiative
250
300
350
Cost of abatement
Reduction of Australian emissions is:
• “achievable- 30 percent below 1990 levels
by 2020 and 60 percent by 2030 without
major technological breakthroughs or
lifestyle changes”
• “affordable with an average annual gross
cost of approximately A$290 per
household to reduce emissions in 2020 to
30 percent below 1990 levels”
McKinsey (2008)
Adapting our cities:
New paradigms for successful
building
•
•
•
Adaptation as a response to climate change
Adapting to what?
Key opportunities
Key threats
– Conservatism
– Vested interests
– Ourselves
•
•
Changing our mind-set
Conclusions
Common reactions to learning about
severe environmental problems
Emotional
responses
Threat
Coping
mechanisms
Anxious
Minimising
Scared
Denying
Sad
Avoiding
Depressed
Scepticism
Numb
Desensitises
Helpless
Depend on others
Hopeless
Resigned
Frustrated
Cynical
Angry
Fed up
Based on Australian Psychological Society (2008) Climate Change: What You Can Do.
http://www.psychology.org.au/publications/tip_sheets/climate/
Information, behaviour and rationality
Common assumptions
• People are essentially
rational
• Rationality is conscious
(we choose)
• Denial is a kind of
irrationality
• Irrationality and denial
can be overcome by more
information
Alternative assumptions
• What is rational in one
context may be irrational in
another
• Most rationalities are
“stored” in the unconscious
• Every rationality is guided
by emotion
De Kirby et al. (2007): In what can you do to fight global
warming and spark a movement, Island press, Washington DC
Fien et al. (2008): personal communication
Human behavioural response determinates
Societal structures
 Politics and governance
 Social institutions
 Imbedded social norms
Responses
Framed in societal norms and
behavioural characteristics
Underpinning drivers of behaviour of individuals
 Genetic
 Learned
 Deeply embedded characteristics
Adapting our cities:
New paradigms for successful
building
•
•
•
•
Adaptation as a response to climate change
Adapting to what?
Key opportunities
Key threats
Changing our mind-set
and building resilience
– Holism
– Strategic-ness
– Attention to societal
evolution & its directions
•
Conclusions
Future motor vehicle fuel security
Threat of
conflict
Fuel
security
Increased global
demand-Falling
availability
Carbon Pollution
Reduction
Scheme
Limited
suppliespeak oil
Oil Imports
CO2
Balance of
payments
Renewable
energy targets
Emissions
Rapidly diminishing
national production
Pollutants
Rising
costs
Rising
demand
Affluence
Population
Motor
vehicle
fuels
Energy efficiency
targets
Biofuels
Human health
Food, water
Employment
Social coherence
Building resilience
• Holism
– CC coexists with poverty alleviation, energy & national security, etc.
– Mitigation & adaptation impact on employment, competition,
economics, other environmental problems, etc.
– Disciplinary, sectoral, national, personally isolated strategies often
fail to deliver to those jurisdictions or to whole community needs
• Uncertainty
– Uncertainty exists & will always exists concerning the future.
Rather than attract delay it should demand actions & with urgency.
It is a matter of the risk.
• Strategic-ness
– Where we wish to be over time, economically, socially &
environmentally. Not set in stone but guidance towards broad,
widely shared aspirations
– Incorporate issues of future food, water, health, environmental
security, disaster mitigation, security issues, etc.
– Builds options & thus resilience into the future, in face of
uncertainty
Adapting our cities:
New paradigms for successful building
•
•
•
•
•
The role of adaptation as a response to climate change
Adapting to what?
Key opportunities
Key threats
Changing our mind-set
• Conclusions
Development sector risk/opportunities
• Change in environmental exposure
– Extremes of wind, temperature, aridity and rainfall,
inundation and flooding
• Changes available natural resources
– Water, disposal
• Changing impacts globally
– Competitors, suppliers, markets
• Revolutionary changes to energy
– Sources, utilisation and costs
– Materials, energy standards, new technologies
Dr. Keith Suter