Transcript Climate Change Ecology

Ecological Restoration (BIO 409)
Dr. McEwan
Global Change and Restoration
Climate Change Ecology
Main points:
1. Climate has never been stable.
2. Climate dynamics impact ecosystems
3. The climate is changing rapidly now.
4. Climate change has substantial implications
Climate Change Ecology
Main points:
1. Climate has never been stable.
•
Enormous variability over the long-term
2. Climate dynamics impact ecosystems
3. The climate is changing rapidly now.
4. Climate change has substantial implications
Delcourt and Delcourt 1987
Delcourt and Delcourt 1987
THE HOLOCENE
(11,000-now)
Delcourt and Delcourt 1987
Younger Dryas: marks boundary
Holocene
Holocene Thermal Maximum:
(Globally 1-2 C higher than today)
Hypsithermal
Holocene
Climate Change Ecology
Main points:
1. Climate has never been stable.
•
Enormous variability over the long-term
2. Climate dynamics impact ecosystems
•
Species respond to climate dynamics
3. The climate is changing rapidly now.
4. Climate change has substantial implications
Margaret Davis...
SCIENCE !
Pollen (SEM)
Acer rubrum
Juniperus sp.
http://www.geo.arizona.edu/palynology
Ambrosia trifida
Margaret Davis: Roger’s Lake
Ecology (50:409-422), 1969
Pollen Viewer
http://www.geo.brown.edu/georesearch/esh/QE/Research/VegDynam/VegAnima/Viewer32/WebViewer.html
Climate Change Ecology
Main points:
1. Climate has never been stable.
•
Enormous variability over the long-term
2. Climate dynamics impact ecosystems
•
Species respond to climate dynamics
3. The climate is changing rapidly now.
•
Likely has multiple causes,
•
Increasing CO2 may be the most important driver
4. Climate change has substantial implications
Griffith Woods, KY
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/111186/the-tenbiggest-american-cities-that-are-running-out-of-water
But, why?
Well…a lot of things influence climate:
1) Sunspot activity
2) Volcanoes
3) Ocean current changes
4) Earth’s wobble
5) Atmosphere (greenhouse effect)
Sunspots!
Volcanoes can influence global climate, but not real good
evidence of more volcanoes the last 50 years or so…
Oceanic currents are a powerful climatic force. They both influence
and are influenced by atmospheric conditions. Thermohaline cycles
are extremely important. The vulnerability of these systems to
ongoing climate warming is not well understood. Why are England
and other European nations more concerned with climate change
than the US or China?
The Earth’s wobble matters…but, thus far we
don’t think this has explanatory power with
regard to the ongoing warming pattern
A CO2 driver of Climate Change:
The Three Arguments:
1) Physics
2) Correlative
3) Modeling (a combo of physics and correla
The Greenhouse Effect is fundamental to our
understanding of how Earth works:
http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/earthguide/diagrams/greenhouse/
Keeling Curve: Measured on Mauna Loa
Occam’s Razor (law of
parsimony) and Newton combine
to suggest- with extreme
confidence that increasing
atmospheric CO2 is the driver of
ongoing climate warming.
http://www.ipcc.ch/
Climate Change Ecology
Main points:
1. Climate has never been stable.
2. Climate dynamics impact ecosystems
3. The climate is changing rapidly now.
4. Climate change has substantial implications