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The risk of climate change
A comparative perspective
2015-04-13
Dennis Pamlin, Senior Advisor
Increasing awareness of global catastrophic risks,
while searching for the governance that can decrease them.
Responding proportionately to the risk
Focus, Responsibility, Capacity to turn it into opportunities
Most probable – 1/200
33%
Economic
Unacceptable
?
Risk of ruin
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The Global Challenges Foundation
12 different risks that threaten human civilisation
LA-602: Ignition of the Atmosphere
with Nuclear Bombs
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Very different levels of uncertainty – different focus to address them
Action
Already in the
risk zone
Research
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Surprisingly high probability for existential risk
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Responding proportionately to the risk
Significant uncertainty – but potentially catastrophically consequences
Type 1 errors
Type 2 errors
2-4°C
Emissions (human)
Climate sensitivity
Climate effects
Climate resilience
4-7°C
0.1°C
2
7+°C
Responding proportionately to the risk
The probabilities of global risks are not isolated from each other
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How do we communicate about the probability different risks?
1%
IPCC = Exceptionally unlikely
Traditional risk approach = Average
20%
IPCC = Unlikely
Traditional risk approach = Very high
<0.002%
Traditional risk approach = Very Low
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Four ideas to consider from a comparative global risks perspective
1.
2.
Research
Encourage all research related to climate change to
present the whole probability distribution and
include a discussion about the tail-risk.
=> Do not stop research regarding impacts at 4°C
and discuss earth system feedback.
3.
Business/finance (and policy making)
Develop strategies that allow the goal of global zero
carbon society by 2050 become a main driver of
innovation supported by accelerated uptake of
strategies that include the financial risk of
investments in high-carbon capital.
4.
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Policy making
Establish a G20 global risk group with focus on
low-probability/high impact aspects. 2, 4, 7+
°C
For climate: Explore the consequences of two
goals for and climate change.
i.
2 degree goal (dangerous risk) with
80% or 99% probability => Main focus on
the direct effect of anthropic emissions
ii.
A 6 degree goal (deadly risk) with
99.98% or 99.9998% probability =>
Focus on earth system feedback and
surprises
All
Establish revised probability language to
describe the probability of different degrees of
warming and associated consequences.
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Thank you, look forward to further discussions
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Selection: Peer reviewed literature from established sources
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