Transcript Stefan Ulreich præsentation

Danish Energy Industries
Federation
Annual Conference
30th April 2009
European climate change
policy beyond 2012
Terms of Reference
The objectives of Task Force are:
1.
To develop a long-term view about options
for climate change policy in Europe;
2.
To deliver long-term scenarios of
GHG-emissions and abatement technologies
including abatement costs
and influence on energy prices;
3.
To develop a view on the further
development of the EU emissions
trading scheme after 2012
Members of the Task Force
Study chair
Czech Republic
France
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
Serbia
Slovenia
Sweden
Switzerland
International Org.
WEC
Observer
Stefan Ulreich (Germany)
Mr. Tomáš Chmelík
Christine Faure-Fedigan
Nicole Dellero
Christian Güthert
Uwe Maassen
Heimo Friede
Hans-Wilhelm Schiffer
Federico Rossi
Alessandro Clerici
Francesca Massara
Massimo Ceccariglia
Theo. W. Fens
Dr Miodrag Mesarovic
dr. Tomaž Štokelj
Leif Halvorsen
Prof. Eberhard Jochem
Dr. Marco Berg
Paul Bulteel
Nicola Rega
John Scowcroft
Simon Godwin
Jean-Eudes Moncomble
General background
Main sectors in EU-27:
Energy supply and transport
General background
European share on global GHG-emissions
Latin America
3%
Rest
10%
USA
21%
Africa
3%
Middle East
5%
Other Asia
5%
OECD-Europe
15%
India
4%
China
21%
Japan
4%
Russia
9%
General background
Comparison of the electricity generation
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
USA
EU-27
Indexed kWh/capita (World=1)
China
India
Indexed g CO2/kWh (World=1)
World
Indexed (World = 1)
General background
Key messages:
•
GHG emissions are globally still rising
•
Major contributor is the fossil fuel combustion,
especially for electricity production.
•
Technological solutions are present,
but need time until they will contribute
largely to a further GHG reduction
•
Europe will be part of the solution mainly
in terms of clean technology development.
•
An effective combat against climate change
needs a global solution. Europe can show the way
and demonstrate efforts, but other important regions
should move and establish their pathways.
General climate policy
The COP/MOP negotiations
Brundtland Report
United nations
European Directive
Concept of sustainable
framework convention
for an emission trading
Development
on climate change (UNFCCC) scheme (ETS)
Phase 1 EU-ETS
1987
1988
1992
1997
2003
2005
2007
Phase 2 EU-ETS
2008
2012
Toronto conference
Kyoto Protocol
Kyoto Protocol
First commitment
Creation of IPCC
Agreement
entered into force
of the Kyoto Protocol
Date
COP 1
Location
Main achievements
Berlin
(Germany)
Report of the Global Environment Facility to the Conference of the
Parties on the development of an operational strategy and on initial
activities in the field of climate change (matters relating to
arrangements for the financial mechanism)
COP 2
8-19 July
1996
Geneva
(Switzerland)
Activities implemented jointly: annual review of progress under the
pilot phase
Report of the Global Environment Facility to the Conference of the
Parties
COP 3
1-10 Dec
1997
Kyoto (Japan)
Kyoto Protocol : Adoption of a protocol or another legal instrument:
Fulfilment of the Berlin Mandate
COP 4
2-13
Nov.1998
Buenos Aires
(Argentina)
Kyoto Protocol : Review of the implementation of commitments
Development and transfer of technologies
COP 5
25 Oct.–5
Nov. 1999
Bonn
(Germany)
Adoption of The Buenos Aires plan of actions on: The financial
mechanism; Development and transfer of technologies
General climate policy
Technological partnerships
-
Asia-Pacific Partnership
-
EU with India and China
-
CCS: CSLF (Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum),
ZEP (European initiative on zero emission platform)
-
Nuclear: Generation IV initiative gathering 10 countries
over 4 continents and INPRO
General climate policy
ETS around the world
Country
Participants
Gases
Baseline
Mandatory
Voluntary
Characteristics
First review
 Started in April 2005
CO2 emissions
from energy
conservation and
switching from
oil to less carbon
intensive fuels.
Japan
 No penalties but companies must return the
Average emissions for a
reference period (3 years)
minus companies’ expected
emissions reductions
Voluntary
The emissions reductions expected were
not met as Japan emissions are 14%
higher compared to 1990 level (Kyoto
target: minus 6% compared to 1990 level)
Average CO2 price: YEN 1212 (approx. €
7.2)
Mandatory
(Large
consumers
>100GWh/ym
ay voluntarily
participate)
206 abatement projects have been
accredited. No new development in the
scheme’s design have been made since
2006.
The spot market is in line with the penalty
price (~7€)
The federal system may be implemented
in 2010
subsidies if the targets are not met.
 No price cap
 Next trading period: April 2008 – March 2009
 CDM/JI authorized
 Started in 2003
New South Wales
(Australia)
Electricity generators, sellers and retail license
holders
CO2, CH4, N2O,
HFC, PFC and
SF6
An annual GHG benchmark
for the electricity sector is set.
To be compliant, participants
must surrender abatement
certificates from project-based
emissions reduction activities.
 The government has committed the benchmark
to extend the target to 2020 unless a federal system
is implemented.
 Penalty: 7.2€/tCO2 eq. 10% shortfall allowed
without penalty, but has to be provided the
following year.
Country
Australia
Canada
Participants
Direct emissions from facilities emitting more than 25
ktCO2eq/y
Upstream fuel suppliers for other energy-related emissions
Agriculture and land use will be initially excluded
55% of the Australian emissions covered
Electricity produced by combustion, oil and gas, forest products,
smelting, refining, iron and steel, cement, lime and chemicals
production
Gases
CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC,
PFC and SF6
Baseline
Long term cap: -60% by 2050
compared to 2000 level.
Short term cap for 2020 but not
defined yet
Characteristics
Mandatory/Voluntary
 Starts in 2010, annual compliance
 Price cap and penalty not yet defined
 CDM/JI allowed, limit not defined
Mandatory
 Mix of free allocations and auctioning
CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC,
PFC and SF6
Objectives in term of energy intensity:
-10% by 2010 from 2006 level and 2%/yr until 2015
 Starts in 2010
 Allowances received through market or technology fund (10€/t from
2010)
 Domestic projects or CDM limited at 10% of the total allowances, JI
not authorized.
Mandatory but possibility to suppress
its reduction obligation by 70% with a
payment to a technology fund in 2010,
only 10% in 2016 and 2017 and no
possibility after 2017.
General climate policy
Key messages
-
Long negotiation process
-
Apart from the EU-27
other national and regional
initiatives are present:
Linking of the markets essential
-
Technology partnerships as
first step to techology distribution
Climate friendly technologies
Climate friendly technologies
-
Identify technologies
-
Abatement costs
-
Abatement volumes
-
Try to explore “unusual” solutions
Climate friendly technologies
Demand side
Climate friendly technologies
Supply side
Climate friendly technologies
Key messages
-
There is a huge portfolio of technologies at demand and supply
side that have the potential to reach deep cuts in GHG emissions;
-
Technology must be accompanied by life style changes;
-
All these technologies must be accessible without exclusion;
-
Electricity is the only energy vector that can be further
decarbonised in the foreseeable future through a range of
technologies and offers the prospect of low carbon road transport
through the hybrid and electric vehicle and of contributing to low
carbon heating through heat pump systems.
-
Technology diffusion will not come by itself, there is a need for a
whole range of policy measures including education and
information, providing a long term price signal for GHG emissions,
efficiency standards, R&D, incentives and support schemes;
Pathway to a climate friendly
Europe
Pathway to a climate friendly Europe
-
needed investments
-
attractivity/risk of investments,
-
energy mix,
-
connected emissions,
-
costs for the public (Stern report),
Pathway to a climate friendly
Europe
Mainly electricity sector and transport
considered
Conclusions & Recommendations
Conclusions and recommendations
-
-
We need a global price on
CO2 emissions
We need more support for
climate friendly technologies
Investments are key –
longer horizons needed
Re-balancing necessary:
Security of supply
and Affordable energy
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