The Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Beach Recreation in

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Transcript The Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Beach Recreation in

The Economic Impacts of Climate Change on
Beach Recreation in North Carolina
Nicholas Livy, Appalachian State University
Faculty Advisor: John Whitehead, Department of Economics
ABSTRACT
STUDY LOCATION
DISCUSSION
DATA
•
• The data was collected via
telephone survey.
• The study area includes five
southeastern North Carolina
counties and encompasses 17
beach locations within these
counties.
• The final sample number of
households surveyed was 649 with
each survey consisting of data for
17 beaches for an overall sample
size of 11,033.
There is growing scientific consensus that
climate change is occurring. One effect of
climate change in North Carolina is sea-level
rise along the Atlantic coast. Climate
change-induced sea level rise is expected to
claim 50 ft. of North Carolina’s beaches
within the next 25 years. This will also cause
economic change in the recreation and
tourism industry. With fewer beach recreation
opportunities, tourists will travel to other
regions for their recreational activities and
beach communities will suffer.
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Descriptive Statistics
The purpose of this research is to estimate
the economic impacts of sea level rise on
southern North Carolina beaches. Using
data from a telephone survey of residents of
eastern NC we estimate the demand for trips
to seventeen southern NC beaches. The
dependent variable is the number of trips
taken annually to each beach. Independent
variables include the travel costs to beaches,
income and characteristics of the beaches,
including beach width.
In analyses of these data with ordinary least
squares regression we find that the number
of beach trips increases with decreases in
travel cost, increases in income and
increases in beach width. With variation in
the current beach width we simulate the
effects of a loss of width of fifty feet and
estimate the reduction in the number of
beach trips taken with a more narrow beach.
This analysis will support various policy
analyses. One component of the economic
benefits of policies that mitigate climate
change in North Carolina is the avoidance of
lost beach recreation. We will measure these
benefits as the product of the consumer
surplus per trip and the reduction in the
number of trips taken with a more narrow
beach. Avoidance of the lost trips is one
component of the benefits of climate change
mitigation policy.
N
THEORY
• Because global warming generates
increased temperatures, icebergs
will begin to melt and the sea level
will rise
• This leads to a reduction in beach
width
Minimum
Maximum
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
Mean
Std. Deviation
tc
11033
.00
311.53
122.0012
59.40131
trips
11033
.00
200.00
.8730
7.21732
Access
11033
2.00
69.00
27.4706
19.93054
Fort
11033
.00
1.00
.1176
.32220
Length
11033
1.20
11.50
4.6294
2.81642
Parking
11033
103.00
1479.00
452.5882
349.42762
Width
11033
80.00
400.00
129.5294
73.24757
income2
11033
10.00
100.00
58.8752
27.45281
Valid N (listwise)
11033
MODEL
• As the beach width decreases we
may see a overall decrease in the
number of beach trips and a
decrease in consumer surplus.
In the linear model the dependant
variable is trips.
The independent variables are travel
cost, income, fort, length, parking,
width, and access.
Adjusted r-squared = .024.
F-stat = 40.11.
Trips are positively affected by
parking, width, access and income.
The variables that negatively affect
trips are forts, length, access, and
travel cost.
• Ordinary least squares regression
• Trips = a + b*Travel cost + e
• Own-price elasticity = 2.52
• Income elasticity = 1.35
• Consumer surplus of beach trips =
$21.17
• Consumer surplus with narrow
beach = $12.58
• Change in consumer surplus per
household = $8.59
• Study population = 1.58 million
households
• Total Change in Consumer
Surplus= -$13.57 million (annually)
Coefficients(a)
Unstandardized
Coefficients
Model
$
B
1
DCS
D
x
x’
Trips
CONCLUSIONS
Std. Error
1.121
.267
4.190
.000
Access
-.009
.006
-1.486
.137
-1.077
.296
-3.633
.000
Length
-.006
.035
-.166
.868
Parking
.002
.000
6.987
.000
Width
.004
.001
3.192
.001
income2
.020
.003
6.920
.000
-.018
.001
-13.951
.000
tc
D’
Sig.
(Constant)
Fort
a
t
• Climate change will have
significant negative impacts on
coastal tourism and recreation.
Dependent Variable: trips
For additional information please contact:
Nick Livy
Appalachian State University
[email protected]