Transcript Lecture Slides

SIO/CHEM-87: Lecture 7
KNOWLEDGE TO GLOBAL & REGIONAL
ACTION: CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION
AND ENERGY ACCESS
V. Ramanathan
FEBRUARY 25, 2015
CLASS PROJECT FOR MARCH 04 CLASS
COME WITH A 6-POINT PLAN TO LIMIT CLIMATE CHANGE TO LESS THAN 2C
WARMING
1) INDIVIDUAL LEVEL: WHAT CAN YOU DO TO REDUCE YOUR
CARBON FOOT PRINT? ONLY THOSE THAT WILL SCALE UP
TO 0.5 GT OR MORE.
2) CITY TO STATE LEVEL; IMAGINE YOUR SELF AS A MAYOR OR GOVERNOR
AND COME UP WITH A PLAN
3) WHAT SHOULD WE DO AT THE GLOBAL LEVEL.
EACH STUDENT WILL HAVE 10MTS TO MAKE A PRESENTATION;
WTITTEN REPORTS ARE NOT NECESSARY; JUST SUBMIT YOUR POWER POINT:
EMAIL TO RAM AND AMATO
KNOWLEDGE
IPCC
National Academies
NGOs (Universities;
others)
UNFCC
COP
(Governing Body)
Protocols
USA
Action
China
Accords
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) is an international environmental treaty
negotiated at the United Nations Conference on Environment and
Development (UNCED), informally known as the Earth Summit,
held in Rio de Janeiro from 3 to 14 June 1992.
A conference of the parties (COP) is the governing
body of an international convention.
Climate has Changed in the Past….. But
CO2 HAS MANY OTHER ROGUE COMPANIONS
PERCENT CONTRIBUTION TO TOTAL
HEATING FROM 1750-2011
Source: IPCC, AR5, 2013
FIGURE SOURCE: TYNAN, UCSD
Illustrative CO2 Emissions Profiles and Corresponding Concentrations
5C
4.5 C
4C
3C
2C
I have assumed aerosols are eliminated;
and other GHGs are fixed at 2005
values
Source: U.S. Climate Change Technology Program, September 2006
Intl Energy Angecy- 2008 Report
.. Investment from Now to 2050: USD 46 Trillion
1.1% of average annual global GDP over the period”, IEA, 2008
•Third of the Food Produced annually does not reach our stomachs
•The carbon footprint of food not eaten is 3.3 Gt of CO2(Eq), the
third top emitter of CO2 (equivalent) after China and USA!!
•The Water foot print of food waste is 250 km3
• 1.4 billion hectares of land was used to produce the wasted food…
roughly 1/3 of the agriculture land area
•Impacts on biodiversity due to monocropping??
TWO SEPARATE BUT CO-DEPENDENT WORLDS
T1B: The top 1 Billion with
seemingly unlimited access
to fossil fuels.
.
B3B: The bottom 3 billion
lack access to fossil fuels.
ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE TWO WORLDS
UNITS: EXA (1018) JOULES
T4B
Year-2009
B3B
DATA FROM: CHAKRAVARTY,… SOCOLOW, ET AL 2009;GRUBLER & PACHAURI;
WEO,2013
THE CO2 PROBLEM: A T4B PROBLEM
2030
2009
43 GT/YR
E_High
T4B
27 GT/YR
B3B
DATA FROM: CHAKRAVARTY.. SOCOLOW ET AL; WEO,2013;
GRUBLER AND PACHAURI, ET AL, 2011
ENERGY USE AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
FIGURE SOURCE: TYNAN, UCSD
CO2 HAS MANY OTHER ROGUE COMPANIONS
PERCENT CONTRIBUTION TO TOTAL
HEATING FROM 1750-2011
Source: IPCC, AR5, 2013
Pathway for limiting global warming
to 2 C (3.6 F)
Ramanathan and Xu, PNAS, 2010
I.
Stabilize Carbon Dioxide Concentrations below
440ppm (T4B problem)
II. Reduce Short Lived Climate Pollutants
(T4B and B3B problem)
( contributes 40% of current Global warming):
Black Carbon (<2 weeks);
Ozone (< 2 months);
Methane (<15 years)
HFCs & HCFCs (<15 years)
25 to 4000 times more effective than CO2 on 50-100 years scale
Both a problem and an opportunity
A Hybrid Climate Mitigation Strategy for Warming & Sea Level Rise
Simultaneous Mitigation of CO2 and SLCPs is critical for limiting warming
below 20C and Sea Level Rise below 1 meter:
Source: Ramanathan and Xu.2010 & HU et al, 2013
40 YEARS OF
PROGRESS
IN REDUCING BLACK
CARBON BY 90%;
EQUIVALENT TO
MITIGATING CO2
EMISSIONS BY
4 MILLION CARS
26
Exciting New Idea:
Microgrid has UC San Diego Generating 92
Percent Of Its Own Power
What is a Microgrid?
Basically a small-scale version of a traditional power grid, a microgrid draws
energy from clean sources such as wind and solar power, as well as from
conventional technology. A microgrid can be connected to a larger electric grid,
but can also work independently. At UC San Diego, power generation is produced
from several key sources: solar, a fuel cell and a cogeneration plant. These assets
are integrated with energy storage and the sophisticated software that controls it
all.