Transcript ppt - International Research Institute for Climate and Society

Extreme Events
How are they related
to global trends?
Key Points
• Extreme Events have been closely
linked to GHG emissions.
• Extreme Events are very variable
and are difficult to model.
• Extreme Events have many
impacts and we should get well
prepared!
What are they?
• “There are a number of ways extreme climate
events can be defined, such as extreme daily
temperatures, extreme daily rainfall amounts, large
areas experiencing unusually warm monthly
temperatures, or even storm events such as
hurricanes. Extreme events can also be defined by
the impact an event has on society. That may
involve excessive loss of life, excessive economic
or monetary losses or both.” (Easterling et al.
2000)
Key points about Extreme
Events (and Global Trends)
• 1) Extreme Events
are linked with
anthropogenic
emissions and GHGs
(Milly et al., Oki et al
amongst others)
“The change in the area
of the USA affected by
increases in the
proportion of total annual
precipitation derived
from extreme daily
precipitation events
(more than 2 inches)”
Key points
• 2) Extreme Events
are increasingly
variable and
difficult to model
(MacCracken, Milly,
Palmer…)
• http://earthobservatory.nas
a.gov/Study/RisingCost/Ima
ges/extreme_events_mid.gi
f
Key Points
• 3) Extreme
Events have
many
repercussions and
impacts…
• What should we
do?
• http://www.epa.g
ov/climatechange
/effects/extreme.
html
Literature…
Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events: A brief review
DR Easterling, JL Evans, PY Groisman, TR Karl, KE … - Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society, 2000 - agci.org
Easterling, DR and co-authors, 2000. Observed climate variability and change of
relevance to the biosphere. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmos., 105 (D15):
20101-20114.
Meehl, GA and C. Tebaldi, 2004. More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting
heat waves in the 21st century. Science, 305 (5686): 994-997.
Stott, PA, DA Stone and MR Allen, 2004. Human contribution to the European heat
wave of 2003. Nature, 432 (7017): 610-614.
Groisman, PY and co-authors, 2004. Contemporary changes of the hydrological
cycle over the contiguous United States: Trends derived from in situ
observations. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 5 (1): 64-85
Groisman, PY, WE Knight and TR Karl, 2001. Heavy precipitation and high
streamflow in the contiguous United States: Trends in the twentieth century.
Journal of Climate, 82 (2): 219-246.
Literature
Palmer, TN and J Raisanen, 2002. Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal
precipitation events in a changing climate, Nature, 415: 512-514.
Milly, PCD and co-authors, 2002. Increasing risk of great floods in a
changing climate, Nature, 415: 514-517.
MacCracken, MC and co-authors, 2003. Climate change scenarios for the US
National Assessment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 84
(12): 1711
Major, D. and R. Goldberg. 2001. Water Supply. In: Rosenzweig, C. and W.D.
Solecki (Eds.) 2001. Climate Change and a Global City: The Potential
Consequences of Climate Variability and Change – Metro East Coast.
New York: Columbia Earth Institute. p. 87-101
Taikan Oki and Shinjiro Kanae Science in www.sciencemag.org August
2006 Global Hydrological Cycles and World Water Resources”