Transcript vancouver2006_08

Assessing the impacts of climate change
on caribou habitats in North America
using remote sensing data
Wenjun Chen, Ian Olthof, Yu
Zhang, Sylvain Leblanc, Ridha
Touzi, Junhua Li, Costas
Armenakis, Isabel Cyr
(Climate Change Program - ESS/NRCan)
CARMA workshop
Vancouver, Nov. 28-30, 2006
Contact: [email protected]
Approach flowchart
Ecosystem
model
Climate &
land use
scenarios
Optimal
caribou
harvest rate
Caribou
herd size
Foliage : stem ratio;
Foliage turnover rate;
Photosynthetic capacity
Vegetation
species
cover %
Leaf Aare Index;
Biomass;
Green-up date
Caribou food
production in the
habitat
Caribou carrying
capacity of the
habitat
Ecotrophic Efficiency;
Annual consumption of summer & winter
diets by an “average” caribou;
Lichen damage by caribou trampling;
Consumption by other wildlife species
“Food Availability”
Field measurement + remote sensing + modeling integration
Land Cover map:
Porcupine caribou
herd range
Land Cover % maps
Bare
Conifer
Shrub
Water
0%
Grass
100%
LUC detection example:
Ekati diamond mine
1990, rgb=4,5,3
2000, rgb=4,5,3
Change map
Ikonos image
Green-up rate (May 1–June 21, 1985)
annual range
extent of calving
Slow
Quick
1-km AVHRR
NDVI
t
Data available: AVHRR since 1979, VGT since 1998
Aboveground biomass map
Field measurements
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56
48
Porcupine caribou herd range
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48
43
48
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55
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53
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50
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49
56
9
51
58
10
Measured aboveground biomass (t/ha)
1000
y = 0.9533x
R2 = 0.7819
100
10
1
0
0
1
10
100
1000
Estaimted aboveground biomass (t/ha)
Changes in permafrost active-layer
thickness from the 1850s
to the 2090s
to the 1990s
CSIROM
Changes in active layer thickness since the 1850s
-50
0
Perm. disappeared
Perm. reappeared
50 >50 (cm)
Glacier
NCAR
20
0.8
Grass/herbs aboveground
biomass (t ha -1)
Deciduous shrub aboveground
biomass (t ha -1)
Potential response to climate change
15
10
5
0
0
5
10
15
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
20
0
-1
Total vascular aboveground biomass (t ha )
Evergreen shrub aboveground
biomass (t ha-1)
Lichen % cover
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
15
20
-1
Total vascular aboveground biomass (t ha )
20
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
0
0
10
15
-1
90
5
10
Total vascular aboveground biomass (t ha )
100
0
5
5
10
15
20
-1
Total vascular aboveground biomass (t ha )
Commitment
 Our team is committed to revise and implement work
plan according to CARMA partners’ needs, so that our
works will be supportive and complementary to CARMA
partners
 ESS-NRCan, through the Climate Change Program, is
committed to provide necessary A-base funding (salary
and O&M) for this work over the next 3 years
 Our team has the full support of ESS-NRCan, through
the Climate Change Program, to become a CARMA
partner and to fulfill all related responsibilities of a
CARMA partner