Transcript No Slide Title - National Council for Science and the Environment

Climate Change
Health Consequences & Healthy Solutions
NCSE
16 January 2008
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Why is Climate Changing Faster than Models Project?
380 ppm
1
CO2
2
?Small
280 ppm
Medium
180 ppm
Large
Ice caps
460 CO2e
CO2 + NOxs + CFCs + methane + H2O – SOxs + black soot = ? ppm CO2-equivalent
3
Ice melt is accelerating
Albedo
Sea level rise
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H2O vapor
Deep Ocean Warming
16
14
12
10
8
P
Heat content in joules
T
22 times
6
4
2
0
Arctic
A
Sea
Mt glac
Antarctic
Atm Cont
glac C
Cont Ocean
Global
Hydrological
Cycle
SIice MG
An
Atm
CG
WO
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Levitus et al. Science 2005
CO2, Climate Change and Health
In our Backyards
Mold
Pollen
70
60
Heatwaves & smog
50
40
30
Height
SeedMass
20
Pollen
Biomass
10
0
CO2350 CO2700
ppm
ppm
Stalks
Particulates & pollen
WNV
Poison Ivy
Tree pollen
2X CO2
Lyme
Ragweed
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Mushroom spores
Stabilization Wedges
7
Energy Efficiency & Conservation
1. Public transport; plug-in hybrids
2. ‘Smart grid’ – distribution, storage, use
3. Green buildings
4. Conservation
Renewables
5. Wind
6. PV/Solar thermal
Natural Sinks
9. Forest mgmt/nurturing
10. Conservation tillage
Fossil Fuel-based
11. Switch from Coal to Nat. Gas
12. C Capture & Storage (CCS)
13. H2 Fuel Cells
14. Coal-to-Liquid w/ CCS
7. Geothermal
8. Biofuels
15. Nuclear fission
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No regrets
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Study needed
OIL LIFE CYCLE COSTS
Exploration
Extraction
Transport crude
Harm
Marine
Spills
&
Leaks
Mammals
Shore birds
Refining
MERCURY
Transport refined
Petrochemicals
Combustion
Benzene
Air Pollution
Acid Rain
Eutrophication
NOxs
Fisheries
Consumers
Warming Oceans
Livelihoods
Climate Change Coral Reefs
SLR
Poverty
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EWEs, spread of EIDs
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Conflict
Melting Polar Ice
COAL LIFE CYCLE ANALYSIS
Silicosis
Underground
Mining
Injuries
Mortality
Mountaintop Removal
Combustion
Deforestation
Water contamination
HABs and
Dead Zones
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NOxs & SOxs
O3 & Brown haze
Particulates
Mercury
CO and CO2
BIOFUELS
EIO-LCA
H
E
Energy In and Out
E
Life Cycle Analysis
Acetaldehyde
SOLAR
ENERGY
Energy In
BIOFUELS
NOxs
Switch grass
E
Farm waste
Grease
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Recycling
CO2
E
Fermentation
Sugar
Corn/stalks
Fertilizers
GHGs
O3
Transport
Ethanol
E
Combustion
E
Energy Out
Land/Soils/Food production
Biofuels II
Palm Oil Plantations
•For a stabilization wedge: 1/6 cropland
•Biodiesel: Monocultures, Indonesian/Malaysian forest fires
•Water, fertilizers, pesticides (NAS)
•Prices: Corn and wheat
•Food and feed security
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Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage
Humans
Vegetation
Limestone
Fractures
Acidification
-As
-Pb
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Microbial
communities
-IPCC Tech Summary 2005
Health and “The Yellow Cake Road”
10 faults within 20-mile
radius of Yucca Mt.
•Mining
•Milling
Worker and
•Transport
Community exposures
Solitario Canyon just west of
planned site can produce an
6.5 magnitude earthquake.
-AP 9/25/07
•Processing
•Energy plants
Ground H2O, heat waves, accidents
•Security
Thefts and attacks
•Temporary storage
Plutonium reprocessed and stored
•Long-term storage unsolved
•
$77 bn
One ‘Yucca Mountain’ q5-10 years
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Bow Ridge
Fault
- USGS 5/21/07
CE
GC
SF
Green Buildings
Estimated Savings
Respiratory disease: $6 to $14 billion
Allergies and asthma: $1 to $4 billion
Sick building syndrome: $10 to $30 billion
Worker performance: $20 to $160 billion
Studies
Total Energy Savings: $70 billion
1996USD B. Fisk. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab
Schools with natural light
20% faster on math tests
26% faster on reading tests
Stores with natural light: 40% more sales
Hospitals with better lighting & ventilation:
improved patient outcomes
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‘Smart,’ ‘Self-Healing,’ Resilient, Robust Grid
Geothermal
Regional
Critical
loads
Generation
Wind
Critical
loads
Co-Generation
Distributed
Generation
Renewables and
Computerized technologies
Central
Natural gas
Generation
Batteries
Geothermal heat pumps
A/C
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Co-Generation
Solar thermal arrays and PV
ENERGY SOURCES
A Solar Grand
Plan
69% grid by
2050
Zweibel et al. SciAm 1/08
“A Grand Wind
Plan”
1.5 ml turbines
3 TW by 2020
US DOE
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L. Brown 2008
Healthy Cities Program
CO2 dome
O3
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Harmonizing Adaptation and Mitigation
Distributed Generation
Distributed Development
Water
Purification
Pumping
Irrigation
Desalinization
Schools
Clinics
Homes
Computers
Cooking
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“Low Hanging Fruit”
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McKinsey & Co. 2007
Financial and Policy Instruments
Aligning Rewards and Regulations
Private sector
Investments
Insurance
Ratings
Public sector
Incentives
Infrastructure
R&D
Procurement
practices
“Sticks”
Public Health
TAXES, SUBSIDIES,
FUNDS
Security
REGULATIONS
INSTITUTIONAL
EFFICIENCY STDS
FRAMEWORK
New Energy Plan
Transport
Corn Coal Nuclear
Utilities
Buildings
Lobbies
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“Carrots”
Economy
Climate Stability
THE ENGINE OF
GROWTH
for the
21st CENTURY
http://chge.med.harvard.edu
http://www.climatechangefutures.org
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