Transcript Evidenced-Based Decision-Making

Evidenced-Based DecisionMaking: Coordinated Support
to Manage for Better
Development Results
July 30th, 2009
HIGH-LEVEL ADVOCACY FORUM ON STATISTICS
Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago
Presented by Ms Michelle Gyles-McDonnough,
Resident Coordinator of the UN System and Resident
Representative, UNDP Barbados and the OECS
Ideally, we should have





Effective targeting of social investments
towards the neediest and most vulnerable
Regular assessments of development progress
including MDG reports and HDR reports
Consolidated beneficiary system and
information
Data in place for rapid deployment of crisis
support
Countries achieve MDG + and Vision 2020
To report and prove progress, we
need






Quantitative and qualitative data
To understand the dimensions and
manifestations of poverty and vulnerability
Prove that policies contributed to positive
social change
Baselines for where we started and
benchmarks for where we are going
Data for trend analysis
To Monitor and evaluate – success or failure
Each country needs.........
Indicators and tools for assessing and
monitoring
 Information flow and communication
 Coordination
 Institutional leadership for
monitoring
 Advocacy and buy-in

A Development Results system
would be framed on:
The Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLF)
POLICIES, INSTITUTIONS AND PROCESSES
Empowerment
Opportunity
Accountability
Jobs
Democracy
Services
Participation
Social Movements Markets
Community Organisations
VULNERABILITY
CONTEXT
Trends
Shocks
Seasonality
POOR PEOPLE’S ASSET MANAGEMENT
STRATEGIES
Human, Financial, Social, Natural and Physical
assets
LIVELIHOOD
OUTCOMES
Income
Well-being
Health
Security
Re-drawn from: Environmental Resource Management (2002), “Predicted Impact of Global Climate Change on Poverty and the Sustainable Achievement of
the MDGs: Vol. 2”, DFID review, p.10.
Taken from Perch, L., Murray R., Tincani, L.,(2007). Climate Change and Human Development:
A policy Review for the Caribbean. Presented at Caribbean Conference on Climate Change. Jamaica. June.
But...............how much do we assess progress?
Caribbean
Countries
Implementation of Poverty Assessments 1993-2003
1992
1. Surveys
of Living
Conditions
Jamaica
Trinidad and
Tobago
Guyana
Barbados
Belize
Saint Lucia
St. Vincent
& the
Grenadines
Grenada
St.Kitts and
Nevis
Bahamas
2. Labour
Force
Surveys
Saint Lucia
St. Vincent
and the
Grenadines
Dominica
Grenada
3. Social
Survey
Montserrat
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
×
×
×
×
×
×
×
×
×
×
×
×
×
×
×
×
×
×
×
1983
×
×
×
×
×
×
×
×
×
Progress...but work remains






While indigence has declined significantly,
poverty has increased in some countries.
Inequality remains high
Climate change and disaster risk not well
integrated into broader development framework –
HIV Statistics and reporting ,while improved, still
limited requires urgent attention (2008 CRIS
Reports)
multi-sectoral planning remains sporadic
Vulnerability high amongst elderly, children,
women
Progress with MDG 1 up to 2005
Poverty Indicators
Year CPA
conducted
Country
% below the
poverty line
% below the
indigence line
Poverty Gap
FGT P2
(Severity)
Barbados*
1997
13.9
-
n.a.
n.a
BelizeR
1996
33.0
13.4
8.7
4.3
Dominica****
2002
39.0
15
-
-
Grenada
1999
32.1
12.9
15.3
9.9
Guyana*
1999
35.0
19.0
12.4
n.a
Jamaica*
2001
16.8
n.a.
n.a.
n.a
NevisR
2000
32.0
17.0
2.8
1.0
St. KittsR
2000
30.5
11.0
2.5
0.9
St. LuciaR
1996
25.1
7.1
8.6
4.4
St. Vincent & the
GrenadinesR
1996
37.5
25.7
12.6
6.9
Trinidad
Tobago*
and
1992
21.2
11.2
n.a.
n.a.
and Caicos
IslandsR
1999
25.9
3.2
5.7
2.6
Turks
Source: Thomas & Wint (2002: p.5.); ® : CPAs conducted by CDB. **** World Bank, Dominica Social Protection Review
(July 11, 2003) p.3
Poverty and Inequality in the OECS
Country
Poverty Indicators
Year CPA
cond
ucted
% below the
poverty
line
Anguilla (PPA
started in
February for new
Assessment)
2002
23
Antigua and
Barbuda
2006
British Virgin
Islands
% below the
indigence
line
Poverty Gap
Ratio
Gini coefficient
2
6.9
0.31
18.4
5.0
6.6
0.49
2003
22
0.5
4.1
0.23
Dominica****
2002
39.0
15
10.2
0.35
Grenada (new
1999
32
12.9
15.3
-
2001
31.2
14
2.6
0.45
2005
28.8
7.1
98.0
0.42
1996
37.5
25.7
12.6
0.56
data pending
in 2009)
St. Kitts & Nevis
(new data
pending in
2009)
R
St. Lucia
St. Vincent & the
Grenadines
(new data
pending in
2009)
R
External factors

storm” of events:
Underlying Energy Crisis Escalating energy crisis
with implications also with competing interest of
food production and bio-fuels for land resources
Rapid climate change and intense climate
variability [evidenced by intense storm activity,
repetitive storms (September 2008), persistent rain
(October 2008)]
Global financial crisis – resulting in home losses,
tightening of credit, downturn in markets, lack of
confidence
Food crisis – global food security under threat by
high commodity prices, drought & other issues
A “perfect




Likely impacts of the Economic Crisis




Poverty and vulnerability are likely to deepen [For example,
in Antigua and Barbuda, 13.3 % of percent of persons living
below the poverty line worked more than 40 hours, many of
them in more than one job and in the informal sector. ]
Under-employment and unemployment expected to worsen
[anecdotal data suggests some households may have both
parents now without employment]
Intensified gender inequities at the household level with
knock-on effects on children’s education, nutrition and
maternal and child health
Government expenditure on social assistance/protection
could tighten up [countries in OECS reporting loss of
revenue 10-20%]
In the absence of consistent approaches, how
can you:







Really know who is poor and the scope of their
poverty?
Who needs what type of help and when?
What investments are needed to mitigate the
economic crisis?
What types of programmes really work and are worth
the investment?
When programmes need to be changed and are no
longer valid?
What change has been achieved?
Prove to development partners, the return on their
investments?
Support to Poverty Assessment and
Reduction in the Caribbean (SPARC) :

Overarching Goal:
To assist governments to design
and implement a planning
framework that speaks to the
specific needs of the vulnerable
and the disadvantaged in
reducing poverty and enhancing
social development.
… is designed to facilitate multidonor programming to deliver a
comprehensive package of
assistance to Caribbean countries
to strengthen national and
regional capacities to
systematically collect, analyze
and disseminate social data for
poverty assessment as well as
critically inform social policy
formulation.
Access to good
and
available
data
Enhanced
Poverty
Reduction
Strategies
Improved
Analytical
Capacity
Methodological
approach to
poverty
assessment
How does SPARC do its work?






Technical Assistance
Donor coordination through the Programme Steering
Cttee and the Poverty and Social Sector Development
Donor Group (PSSDDG)
Builds on and links into the work of UN system
Advocacy – around Sustainable Human Development,
Poverty Reduction, M&E, Social Vulnerability
Resource Mobilization – both human and financial
[e.g. identification of MDG Champions for Barbados
and the OECS]; collaboration with the World Bank on
Data Anonymization
Research and Response – Expanding the knowledge
base and understanding particularly between issues
e.g. mainstreaming, crisis response and PSIA – testing
new tools.
SPARC enhanced coordination
on Poverty and MDG monitoring

An outcome from the Poverty and Social
Sector Development Donor Group (PSSDDG)
of the Eastern Caribbean Development Group,
SPARC is a partnership of :
UNDP, CDB, World Bank, IDB, CIDA,
OECS/SPU, UN/ECLAC, DfID, UNIFEM,
EU/EC, UNESCO, UNICEF, ILO
SPARC promotes social
dimensions of vulnerability
Exposure to natural disaster
Social Resilience
Social Susceptibility
Fe
ma
le
Sub
-he
ad
ed
stan
d
ard
ho
us
e
ho
ld
hous
ing
Nation
n
Livi
di
g in
Low
er
sast
co
of e
l
e
lev
nom
area
l l- b
well-b
eing
Strength of so
cial capital
Household or
Community)
s
e
ic w
h
Healt
(Individual,
atus
Low health st
ne
p ro
n
atio
duc
e
l
ve
te le
qua
e
d
A
ein
g
Econ
omic
wellbein
g
Adeq
uate
level
s of
hous
in
g
Measure of social vulnerability
Source: ECLAC (2005 Presentation on Social Vulnerability
and the PRSPs
SPARC –systematic approach to
Monitoring for Development

CWIQ,
AD
(Annual)
CPA/SLC/PPA linked
with
HBS
LSMS
(every 4-5 years)
Tools for measuring the depth
and determinants of poverty
(Understanding)


Tools for comparing differences
over space (Targeting)


Census (every 10 years)
Local Administrative Data

Local admin. records
Pop. Census + Hhold survey =
Poverty maps
Tools for monitoring changes
over time (Tracking)

Information Pyramid
HBS, LSMS etc., Participative
Poverty Monitoring (listening to
the poor)

service delivery monitoring
Administrative data/MIS;
Institution-based surveys;
household surveys, CWIQ
Through SPARC framework:




Biennial sub-regional HDRs for the OECS will be
supported linked to CPAs and CWIQs
PSIA is rolled out as a tool for assessing policy
reform impacts and monitoring results on poverty and
social development [admin data critical]
Localizing of the MDGs is promoted– Reports
available for Saint Lucia, Dominica, St. Kitts and
Nevis, BVI, Barbados. Anguilla and Antigua and
Barbuda pending
Capacity development enabled on survey design,
sampling methodology, analysis and interpretation,
MDG strategic thinking, Data Anonymization [later
through WB/Paris 21 ADP]
SPARC – Systemization of Social Data
Collection towards 2015
Countries
Anguilla
Antigua & Barbuda
Barbados
Belize
British Virgin Islands
Cayman Islands
Dominica
Grenada
Montserrat
St. Kitts & Nevis
St. Lucia
St. Vincent & the
Grenadines
Turks & Caicos
Islands
Country Poverty
Assessments (CPA)*
2007
2012
2007
2007
2013
2008
2013
2008
2013
2007
2012
2008
2012
2007
2007
2012
2007
2012
2007
2012
2007
2013
2008
2013
Core Welfare Indicators
Questionnaire (CWIQ)
2010
2008
2010
2009
2011
2009/10
2009
2010
2010
2008
2010
Poverty Reduction
Strategies (PRS)
2011
2007
2011
2011
2009
2008
2011
2008 (tentative)
2011
2008
2007
2009 (interim)
2009
2009
*Efforts will include harmonization between the CPA and the CWIQ including some core questions for
monitoring
Building Sustained Capacity






Poverty and MDG Toolkit for the Caribbean
Support to MSc in Development Statistics
Advocacy for linking poverty assessments to
HIV/AIDS and improved gender analysis
South-South Cooperation – linking capacity
from MS to MS – National Assessment Teams,
poverty mapping
Data dissemination through DevInfo
More recently – with ILO through support to
labour market information
Looking forward – we need resources
for and action on:

Real and sustained focus on social change and
transformation through:





Social Risk Management
Knowledge management
Addressing Inequality and Poverty Reduction
Expanding Social Protection
Harmonization across data instruments,
systems and policy frameworks
Social Risk Management

Moving beyond crisis response to a long-term
approach to enhance equality and resilience
requiring capacity for :



Coping [short-term and situational]
Prevention [understanding and resolving causes of
vulnerability and reducing risk
Mitigation – building resilience, putting response
plans in place and identifying alternative
approaches
Poverty and Inequality Strengthening Analysis





Both the state of poverty as well as
disadvantage and social discrimination
Price information linked to wages – capacity to
provide for basic needs?
Data on persons with disabilities, infected and
affected by HIV
Labour market outcomes from investment in
education
Gender analysis
Social Protection and Inclusion
Clear institutional frameworks for
social protection
 Effective coordination & informationsharing between government agencies
 Commitment over the long-term by
successive governments and leadership
 Transparent beneficiary information
systems

Harmonization of ............




Methodologies for MDG reporting
Concepts and policies
Data collection instruments – Country Poverty
Assessment (CPA), Core Welfare Indicator
Questionnaire (CWIQ), Multiple Indicator
Cluster Survey (MICS), Labour Force Surveys
(LFS) & the identification of core questions to
be monitored across all Household surveys
Management Information Systems vs sectoral
M&E frameworks
Coordination





Strengthen links between SPARC and CARTAC to
enhance socio-economic planning frameworks and
risk management approaches
Joint support by donor partners to strengthening
social protection systems
Strengthen work on climate change and DRR by
focusing on resilience building at the social level
Support capacity development in the soft skills –
communication, leadership, partnerships including
publi/private sector partnership
Capacity building of NGOs to participate in
development monitoring
THANK YOU!!!