Transcript Burbank - Climate Change: Operational and Land Use Strategies

Climate Change:
Operational and Land Use Strategies
Cindy Burbank, Parsons Brinckerhoff
AASHTO Annual Meeting 2009
October 24, 2009
Parsons Brinckerhoff / Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc. | Climate Change
Five GHG Reduction “Legs”
Transportation GHG
reduction has 5 legs:
Examples:
1. Vehicle efficiency
• Higher CAFÉ standards
2. Low-carbon fuels
• CA’s low carbon fuel standard
3. VMT (including land use)
• Higher density/mixed use
4. Vehicle/System
Operations
• Signalization, ITS, eco-driving
5. Construction, Maintenance,
and Agency Operations
• Materials, maintenance
practices
Parsons Brinckerhoff / Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc. | Climate Change
Vehicle/Fuel Improvements Will be the Dominant
Source of GHG Reductions for LDVs
• 50% cut in GHG/mile is feasible from conventional
technologies and biofuels by 2020-2030
• Compare these GHG rates in U.S. and Europe:
380 grams/mile
250 grams/mile
256 grams/mile
209 grams/mile
153 grams/mile
2009 in the U.S.
2016 under new Obama standard
2007 actual in the E.U.
2012 under E.U. regulation
2020 under E.U. regulation
• New technologies and fuels hold promise of much
deeper reductions
Parsons Brinckerhoff / Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc. | Climate Change
But Technology/Fuel Changes Alone
Are Not Likely to Suffice
1% Annual VMT Growth + 100 mpgge LDV Fleet + 10% Operational
Efficiency = 74% GHG Reduction by 2050 for LDVs
1600
Reducing VMT growth (smart
growth, transit, carpooling,
vanpooling, walking, TDM, and
pricing-related strategies) to
+1.0% annual.
System/vehicle operational
efficiency (speed limit
reductions/enforcement,
ecodriving, smoothing out traffic
flow, proper tires and inflation,
removing bottlenecks, etc.)
1200
1000
Highest LDV CO2e Emissions
Reductions (79% Reduction
CO2e/Vehicle Mile) by 2050
800
Light duty fleet GHG emissions
600
400
GHG Goal 70% Reduction from
2005
2050
2049
2048
2047
2046
2045
2044
2043
2042
2041
2040
2038
2039
2037
2036
2035
2034
2033
2032
2031
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2016
2017
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
0
2006
200
2005
U.S. Light Duty Transportation CO2e Emissions
(Million Metric Tons)
1400
Parsons Brinckerhoff / Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc. | Climate Change
How much can
compact land use reduce
VMT and GHG?
Parsons Brinckerhoff / Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc. | Climate Change
How Much can Compact Land Use
Reduce GHG?
• “Growing Cooler” found compact development
can reduce transportation GHG by 3.5-5%, 20072050
• GC’s assumptions of land use change are very
aggressive:
– 67% of all development in place in 2050 will be constructed or
rehabbed after 2005
– 60-90% of that development is compact (comparable to 13.3
housing-units per acre)
– Compact development has 30% less VMT than sprawling
development
Parsons Brinckerhoff / Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc. | Climate Change
“Driving and the Built Environment”
•
•
(TRB, Sept 2009)
More compact development patterns are likely
to reduce VMT.
Doubling residential density across a
metropolitan area might lower household VMT
by about 5 to 12 percent, and perhaps by as
much as 25 percent, if coupled with higher
employment concentrations, significant public
transit improvements, mixed uses, and other
supportive demand management measures.
Parsons Brinckerhoff / Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc. | Climate Change
“Driving and the Built Environment”
(TRB, Sept 2009)
• Significant increases in compact, mixed-use
development result in only modest short-term
reductions in energy consumption and CO2
emissions, but reductions will grow over time.
• CO2 reductions may be in the range of <1% to
11% in 2050.
• Committee disagreed about plausibility of extent of
compact development and policies needed to
achieve high end estimates.
Parsons Brinckerhoff / Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc. | Climate Change
“Driving and the Built Environment”
(TRB, Sept 2009)
•
Promoting more compact, mixed use
development on a large scale will require
overcoming numerous obstacles.
•
Changes in development patterns entail other
benefits and costs that have not been quantified
in this study.
Parsons Brinckerhoff / Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc. | Climate Change
“Driving and the Built Environment”
(TRB, Sept 2009)
• Report is supported by 5 excellent research papers,
meritorious in their own right, which contain some
provocative and critical points about previous research.
“Very few studies provide enough detail to judge
whether this link [between the built environment,
density and VMT] is large enough to make
manipulating the built environment a feasible tool for
controlling VMT, but those that do suggest that the
size of this link is too small to be useful.”
--David Brownstone, UC Irvine
Parsons Brinckerhoff / Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc. | Climate Change
How much can
operational improvements
reduce GHG?
Parsons Brinckerhoff / Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc. | Climate Change
How Much Can Operational
Improvements Reduce GHG?
Potential for 10-20% LDV GHG reduction by:
1. Individual driver operating behavior
–
“Eco driving”
2. System management
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Managing speed (35-55 MPH is optimal)
Speed limits/enforcement (could reduce fuel use 2-4%)
Eliminating bottlenecks
Rapid removal of traffic incidents
“Active” traffic management to smooth traffic flow
Improving signal timing (could reduce 1.315 MMT CO2/yr)
Roundabouts (multiple benefits)
Reducing car and truck idling
Work zone management to smooth flow
Parsons Brinckerhoff / Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc. | Climate Change
Eco Driving – 15% GHG Reduction
Potential
– Eco drivers can reduce fuel and CO2 by an average of
15% through smart driving and vehicle maintenance.
– If 50% of drivers practiced Eco driving, CO2 would
drop by 100 million tons annually (the equivalent of
heating and powering 8.5 million households)
– Pilot by City of Denver with 400 drivers achieved 10%
fuel reduction and similar GHG reduction
- Useful for HDV, MDV, and LDV drivers
- Major push in Europe as GHG strategy
- Aided by dashboard displays of real-time MPG
Parsons Brinckerhoff / Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc. | Climate Change
www.EcoDrivingUSA.com
• EcoDrivingUSA™ is a broad partnership to
increase overall vehicle fuel economy and
preserve the environment
– Be an EcoDriver
– EcoDriving Quiz
– Community EcoDriving
- EcoCalculator
- Virtual Road Test
- Educational Tools
• EcoDriving partners: Environmental Defense,
Auto Manufacturers, Governors of AL, CA, CO,
GA, ID, KY, MI, MS, MO, MD, NC, OK, PR, SC,
UT, VA, WV
Parsons Brinckerhoff / Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc. | Climate Change
How does speed affect GHG?
Source: Colin McConnaha, Parametrix, Inc.- Columbia River Crossing EIS)
(
Emissions/km
5 mph
3X higher
emission rate
• Fuel consumption
varies with speed
• Change in speeds
impacts GHG
emissions rates
45 mph
Speed
Parsons Brinckerhoff / Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc. | Climate Change
Traffic signalization in Portland, OR
• City of Portland and Climate Trust project
• Retimed 265 traffic signals in 33 corridors
• Average CO2 reduction = 50 metric tons/year per
traffic signal
• 157,500 metric ton reduction by end of project
• Reductions verified by Climate Trust
• Costs = $765,000
• Costs to be recouped via GHG offsets (transfer to
Climate Trust)
- Source: Jim Peters, et al., in ITE Journal, April 2009
Parsons Brinckerhoff / Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc. | Climate Change
“Moving Cooler” –
Operational Strategies Rank High
GHG reduction potential from individual strategies,
cumulatively 2010-2050, compared to on-road baseline
• 15,186 mmt - carbon pricing equiv to $2.71/gallon
• 3,361 mmt – VMT fees equiv to $2.53/gallon
• 2,428 mmt – speed limit reductions
• 2,233 mmt – PAYD auto insurance (100%)
• 1,815 mmt – eco-driving by 20% of drivers
• 1,445 mmt – at least 90% of new urban development is compact,
with high quality transit
• 1,241 mmt – congestion pricing fully implemented in 120 metro
areas at 65 cents/mile
•
575 mmt - $1.2 trillion transit expansion
•
352 mmt – combination of 10 freight strategies
Parsons Brinckerhoff / Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc. | Climate Change
Operational Strategies are Prominent among
Options to Reduce Freight GHG
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
More fuel-efficient vehicles
Low carbon fuels
Anti-idling programs*
Truck stop electrification
Speed limit enforcement*
Freight villages/consolidation
centers
Feeder barge container service
Traffic flow improvements*
Pre-clearances at scale houses
Truck driver eco-training*
EPA SmartWay up-grade kits &
loans
Incentives to retire older trucks
Freight logistics improvements
Shifting freight from truck to rail
•
•
•
•
•
Hybrid power trucks
Low-viscosity lubricants
Single wide-base tires
Automatic tire inflation
systems*
“Black carbon” control
technologies
* Operational efficiency strategy
Detailed info available in NCHRP 2024(59), Appendix C
Parsons Brinckerhoff / Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc. | Climate Change
California Comparison
3.4 MMT CO2/year = GHG from traffic congestion in Los
Angeles*
5 MMT GHG/year = CA statewide GHG reduction goal
(interim) for 2020 from implementing SB 375 provisions
on land use/transportation **
Operational efficiency is an important opportunity and
consideration in reducing transport GHG
____________
* UCLA Center for Regional Policy Studies, based on TTI data
** California AB 32 Scoping Plan
Parsons Brinckerhoff / Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc. | Climate Change
European View of Transport GHG Strategies
(European Council of Ministers of Transport, 2006)
•
“The most effective measures available include fuel taxes, vehicle
and component standards, differentiated vehicle taxation, support for
eco-driving and incentives for more efficient logistic organization,
including point of use pricing for roads. “
• “More integrated transport and spatial planning policies might
contain demand for motorized transport.”
• Mode shifts … cannot … form the corner-stone of effective CO2
abatement policy and the prominence given to modal shift policies is
at odds with indications that most modal shift policies achieve much
lower abatement levels than measures focusing on fuel efficiency.”
• “Ultimately higher cost energy sources …. will be required if there are
to be further cuts in transport sector CO2 emissions.”
Parsons Brinckerhoff / Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc. | Climate Change
Conclusions/Summary





Many strategies needed to reduce transport
GHG
Improved vehicles/fuels will be dominant
strategy – but more is required
Operational efficiency is important but underrecognized strategy – potential 10-20% on-road
GHG reduction
Compact land use has modest GHG reduction
potential -- probably <3% reduction
Both operational improvements and compact
land use have other considerations – benefits
and costs
Parsons Brinckerhoff / Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc. | Climate Change
State Climate Action Plans
• Highly “aspirational”
• Managed by state environmental agencies
• Steering Committees included multiple environmental
advocates and rarely had transportation agency reps
• State DOT involvement was at a technical advisory level,
whose input was often rebuffed
• Example: VT strategies would reduce 2030 VMT from
10.5 billion (base case) to 3.9 billion VMT
• VT “plan” was not adopted by Governor
Parsons Brinckerhoff / Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc. | Climate Change
State Climate Plans – Transportation
Elements Vary All Across the Map
State
Year
Vehicle
Low
Carbon
Fuels
MN
2025
15%
35%
25%
25%
NC
2020
35%
12%
38%
15%
SC
2020
14%
55%
29%
1%
CT
2020
51%
38%
8%
2%
ME
2020
53%
25%
21%
1%
MD
2025
24%
12%
45%
20%
NY
2020
59%
11%
27%
4%
PA
2025
45%
36%
18%
0%
RI
2020
46%
10%
31%
14%
VT
2028
21%
14%
49%
17%
Smart Growth
and Transit
Other
Parsons Brinckerhoff / Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc. | Climate Change
Thank you.
Cindy Burbank
Parsons Brinckerhoff
[email protected]
Parsons Brinckerhoff / Sarah J. Siwek & Associates, Inc. | Climate Change