Transcript ECA is significantly threatened

Adapting to climate change in
Eastern Europe and Central
Asia
Rachel Block
World Bank
A call to action
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ECA is significantly threatened by climate change
Vulnerability is driven by socio-economic and environmental
legacy issues
Even countries that stand to benefit are poorly positioned to
do so
ECA countries can make their development much more
resilient while reaping numerous co-benefits.
ECA is significantly threatened
70
7
60
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Number
Number of Natural Disasters
Total Economic Losses
50
5
40
4
30
3
20
2
10
1
0
1950
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Economic Loss (US $M)
The climate is already changing
ECA is significantly threatened
By the 2030s, it will be much warmer…
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Warmer everywhere:
+1.6 to +2.6 by mid century
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Fewer frost days:
(-14 to -30 days)
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More heat waves:
Poland and Hungary to
experience the same number
of hot days as Sicily today
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a. Change in Me an Annual Temperature (2030-2049; 1980-1999; A1B; 8 GCMs)
d. Change in Number of Frost Days (2030-2049; 1980-1999; A1B; 8 GCMs)
Implications:
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Melting glaciers; less snow
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Melting permafrost, arctic ice
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Sea-level rise (except Caspian)
e. Change in Heat Wave Dur ation Index (2030-2049; 1980-1999; A1B; 8 GCMs)
ECA is significantly threatened
…with more droughts and floods…
a. Change in Mean Annual Rainfall (2030-2049; 1980-1999; A1B; 20 GCMs)
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Precipitation will increase
everywhere but in Southern
ECA and Central Asia
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But water availability will
decrease everywhere but the
Baltics and Northern Russia
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b. Change in Runoff (2041-2060; 1900-1970; A1B; 8 GCMs)
Increased precipitation
intensity almost everywhere
d. Change in Daily Maximum 5 Day Rainfall (2030-2049; 1980-1999; A1B; 8 GCMs)
Hatching indicates where at least 2/3 of the models agree with the sign of the change.
ECA is significantly threatened
Some countries are particularly exposed
Strength of future climate change relative to current variability
Source: Baettig et al 2007. Notes: The index combines the number of additional hot, dry, and wet years; hot, dry, and wet
summers; and hot, dry ,and wet winters, projected over the 2070–2100 period relative to the 1961–1990 period.
Understanding vulnerability
Source: Australian Government 2005.
Drivers of Vulnerability
Socio-economic and legacy issues
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High “sensitivity” due to decades of environmental
mismanagement and legacy issues:
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Water mismanagement, e.g. Aral Sea
Pollution: coastal hotspots, poor siting of dangerous substances
Poor quality housing (pre-fabricated panels)
Aging, poorly maintained, over-dimensioned infrastructure
Understanding vulnerability
High sensitivity in Central Asia and the Caucasus
Understanding vulnerability
High adaptive capacity helps offset high exposure
and sensitivity
Even countries that stand to benefit are
poorly positioned to do so
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Assumption that Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine will “feed the world”
Warmer temperatures, carbon fertilization… but water?
Agriculture’s large yield gap:
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Forests:
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4.5 times higher than potential productivity increase from climate change
Potential increase from better management: 60-80%
Potential increase from warmer climate: 10-30%
Northern expansion?
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Infrastructure needs
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Poor soils, drainage
Making development more resilient
while reaping numerous co-benefits in ECA
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Mostly about “doing better”
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The main obstacle is NOT the lack of data
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Adaptation deficit to current climate should be the priority
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Good adaptation must
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Involve stakeholders
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Knowledge
Ownership
Effectiveness
Combine qualitative and quantitative assessment
Encourage robust strategies
Some urgency
Specific recommendations
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Urban management
Transport
Energy
Agriculture
Health
http://www.worldbank.org/eca/climatechange
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