Transcript ECA BBL Wilson 042803

Trade Facilitation and Transport
Global Economic Prospects 2004
ECA Briefing
John S. Wilson
April 28, 2003
Chapter Themes
• Trade Facilitation – More than Transport
• New Measurement Tools - Critical
• Security and Trade - Potential Win-Win
• WTO Negotiations – Potential Benefit – TA
Framework Critical
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Wilson, Mann and Otsuki (2003)
• Econometric approach – gravity model
• Define trade facilitation as:
– Port efficiency, Customs environment, Regulatory
environment and E-commerce Usage
• Generate results for trade gains
– Raising below-average members half-way to
APEC average intra-APEC trade raised by $254
billion
3
New Analysis for GEP 2004
• Wilson, Mann, Otsuki (mimeo)
• Dataset – 75 countries
• Importer and exporter improvements
considered
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Data Sources
1.
2.
3.
4.
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•
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Port Efficiency
Customs Environment
Domestic Regulatory Environment
E-business usage
World Economic Forum Global
Competitiveness Report (GCR)
IMD Lausanne, World Competitiveness
Yearbook (WCY)
Kaufmann, Kraay and Zoido-Lobaton (KKZ)
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Tentative Findings
• Total global export gains - $350 billion $40 billion accrued to ECA region.
• Trade gains from improvements in exporter
($250 billion) much greater than from
importers’ improvements ($100 billion).
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Overview of Simulation:
Bring Below-Average Countries Half-way to up to the Global Average
(Gains in billions of US dollar)
80
101
Port Efficiency
Customs Environment
E-business
27
145
Regulatory Environment
Increase in Exports by Region
45
40
% increase
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Africa
East Asia
ECA
LAC
Middle East
OECD
South Asia
Increase in Exports by Region and Trade Facilitation Measure
25
% increase
20
cutoms
15
e-business
port effciency
10
regulatory environment
5
0
Africa
East
Asia
ECA
LAC
Middle
East
OECD
South
Asia
Security and Trade Facilitation
• Doubling number of terrorist incidents between 1968-1979
led to a 6% decrease in bilateral trade between the targeted
economies (Nitsch and Schumacher, 2002).
• Enhanced security fosters private investment and growth in
developing economies Poirson (1998). Private investment
in the short run increased by 0.5 to 1 percentage point of
GDP, in countries that adopted security measures in ‘best
practice’ regions. Economic growth rose by 0.5 to 1.25
percentage points per year in the long term.
• The Bali bombing 2002 - tourists to Indonesia declined by
2.2 percent – costing 1% of its GDP
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Security Conclusions….
• Necessary to ensure that less developed countries are not
excluded from the plan of balancing security with trade
facilitation objectives.
• Potential Win-Win situation - higher costs can be
recovered through greater efficiencies in the supply chain.
• Need Coordinated Multilateral Plan – G-8 and Developing
Countries.
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WTO Negotiations?
• GATT Article V- Freedom of transit
• GATT Article VIII- Fees and formalities
connected with imports and exports
• GATT Article X- Publication and
administration of trade regulations
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Tentative Conclusions…..
• Trade facilitation – development context
central role.
• WTO negotiations – Beneficial but need
coordinated development plan - WCO,
World Bank, bilateral donors, private sector.
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