Transcript European Union Energy Security and Climate Change Policy in

European Union
Energy Security and
Climate Change Policy
in relation to the Arctic
Kathrin Keil
PhD candidate
Berlin Graduate School for Transnational Studies (BTS)
Freie Universität Berlin
Department of Political and Social Sciences
Otto Suhr Institute of Political Science
Environmental Policy Research Centre (FFU)
Picture
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Content
1.
2.
Relevance of the topic – Why the Arctic? Why the EU?
Research Outline
2.1 Question
2.2 Puzzles
2.3 What to analyse? Content
2.4 How to analyse? Means
2.5 Why analyse? Purpose
3.
Brainstorming: Scenario-building for EU and
Germany
3.1 EU
3.2 Germany
The Arctic
•20 sq km, 66° North
•Russia, US, Canada, Norway, Denmark
•Temp. rise twice as quick (ACIA)
•Average warming: 1-2°C (IPCC)
•Ice-free Arctic Ocean: 2030, 2050 (SWP)
•13% of world’s undiscovered oil reserves
•30% of world’s undiscovered natural gas
(US Geological Survey 2008)
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1. Relevance of the Topic
Why the Arctic?
Potential
• Energy exploitation
• Transport
• Fishing
Challenges
•Environmental
damage
•Indigenous
populations
•Heightened rivalry
Why the EU?

Complex actor network  many European
interests (and responsibilities!) at stake

Starting point:
Communication from the Commission to the
European Parliament and the Council: The
European Union and the Arctic Region,
20 November 2008

Germany’s influence
2. Research Outline
2.1 Questions
1.
2.
3.
4.
What is the direction and speed of Arctic warming and what
are its effects on economic-political, security and climate
change policies?
How will the EU be able to exert the role of a positive player
in the increasingly complex Arctic governance process?
2.1 multilevel actorness (internal)
2.2 multilevel actorness (external)
2.3 policy area
Which role can Germany play in this setting?
How do EU integration and policy-making theories account
for the importance of multilevel actorness, policy area and
differentiated policy-making?
2. Research Outline
2.2 Puzzles
1.
2.
3.
4.
New environmental conditions in the
Arctic
Who will lead and profit?
How will climate change challenge
develop?
Which role will be played by the EU (and
Germany) in policy areas of energy
security and climate change?
2. Research Outline
2.3 Content
Figure 1: Assumptions
and Enquiry
Table 1: Order of Analysis (empirics)
1.Direction and speed of Arctic warming
2.Aspects of reasonable certainty
3.Interpretative disputes/critical variables
4.Evolution of the EU’s role
5.Evolution and effect of Germany’s role
2. Research Outline
2.3 Content

Figure 2: The triangle of security, energy
and climate change policies
Blue: Increasing climate change
problems affect and reinforce
energy issues and vice versa.
Red: Increasing climate change
problems affect and reinforce
security issues.
Green: Increasing energy problems
affect and reinforce security issues.
2. Research Outline
2.4 Means

Multilevel actorness
– National, regional, global
– State and non-state

Policy area
 Differentiated policy-making
– External: common voice demand
– Internal: diversity
2. Research Outline
2.4 Means

Forward-looking research design
 Start with developments in the Arctic
 independent variable(s)
 Asking questions about
consequences/outcome
 dependent variables
 Discourse analysis
2. Research Outline
2.4 Means
Table 2: Order of analysis (whole study)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
State of the art of theories
Direction and speed of Arctic warming (facts)
Methodology
Aspects of reasonable certainty
Interpretative disputes/critical variables
Evolution of the EU’s role
Evolution and effect of Germany’s role
Suggestions for theory development
Conclusions
2. Research Outline
2.5 Purpose

Policy recommendation
 Theory development
– how European integration and policy-making
theories live up - or can live up - to the
centrality of the policy area, to a multilevel
actor approach and to the notion of
differentiated policy-making

On generalisability
3. Brainstorming: Scenario-building
for EU and Germany
3.1 EU
1.
2.
Adaptation and intensification of existing
EU climate change and energy policies
More partnership and exchange
•
•
•
3.
Relevant institutions (e.g. Arctic Council, NATO)
Non-EU countries (US, Canada, Russia, Norway)
Indigenous people
Direct EU action and involvement
3. Brainstorming: Scenario-building
for EU and Germany
3.2 Germany
1.
2.
3.
Relative German inaction
Asserting ecological and climate-change
priorities
’Honest broker' or a creator of balance and
synthesis
Thank you for your attention!