Transcript European Commission Regional Policy

European Commission
Regional Policy
Adapting to climate change – a focus on
the regions
Regions for Economic Change
Bruxelles, 17 February 2009
Agnes Kelemen
European Commission, DG Regional Policy
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European Commission
Regional Policy
Regional impacts of climate change
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Regional Policy
Impacts of climate change: asymmetric impacts
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Built environment and densely populated areas
• Coastal erosion
• River and flash floods
• Wind and storms
Human health
Vulnerable economic sectors:
• Agriculture
• Fisheries
• Tourism
• Energy
• Forestry
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Coastal erosion
"there are projected to be fewer but
more extreme weather events in
the Baltic and North Sea regions,
there may be increased localized
storminess in the Adriatic, Aegean
and Black Sea, while wind
intensity may decline in the
Mediterranean". (IPCC 4AR)
Combination of two sources of
information: population living
below 5m elevation on Atlantic,
North Sea and Baltic Sea coast
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River floods (1)
The economic damage from floods
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will be largest in absolute terms in areas where the value of the assets
affected is high, which is mostly in areas with high income (most EU15)
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The damage in relative terms, compared with GDP, can also be high in
areas with lower income and lower absolute value of assets affected (varied
picture across Europe)
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River floods (2)
Change of population affected by
river floods, estimation for 2100
under IPCC A2 scenario compared
with today
Source: population affected based
on JRC (2007) An assessment of
weather-related risks in Europe:
maps of flood and drought risks,
change in population affected
calculated by JRC
Regionally differentiated impact,
low in the Mediterranean and
northern parts of Europe
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River floods (3)
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Agriculture (1)
Climate induced impacts:
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Changing agricultural yields due to changes in average temperature and
precipitation: overall yields in Europe unaffected in the medium term,
increase in yields in northern Europe, but yield decreases could be as
high as 30% by 2100 in southern parts of Europe
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Extreme weather events increase yield variability
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The mortality of livestock will increase from heat waves and an increase
in vector borne diseases
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Agriculture (2)
Crop yield changes under the IPCC A2 scenario by 2080s relative to the period
1961-1990, results from 2 different models (Source: PESETA)
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Agriculture (3)
Regional share of agriculture and
fisheries in GVA
Soil moisture deficit change by 20702100 compared with 1960-1990
under the IPCC A2 scenario
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Fishery
Climate induced impacts:
• Climate change will increase already existing stress on marine ecosystems
resulting from overfishing, pollution, eutrophication
• species will move north
• changes in temperature likely to increase susceptibility of fish to disease,
• Impacts of climate change, and the interactions between these impacts,
such as changes in salinity and acidification, as well as losses of coastal
ecosystems, are not yet fully understood
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Forestry
Climate induced impacts:
• increase in temperatures result in increased yields in north (by 44% in
Finland under the A2 scenario) and decreased yields in south, as well as
the northward expansion of forests, distribution of impacts across Europe
similar to impacts on agriculture
• increase in forest fires in south
• increased damage from extreme weather events
• increased carbon fertilization
• change in the resilience of tree species to pests and an increase in the
number of pests
• Impacts on forest ecosystems will always be negative
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Tourism (1)
Climate induced impacts:
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Number of snow reliable areas in the Alps under a 2°C increase scenario
would be reduced from the current 600 to 400, and to 200 under a 4°C
scenario
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The Mediterranean region will become less attractive due to heat waves
which will raise temperatures above the heat comfort zone, and due to
the general scarcity of water.
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Regions in the Atlantic, northern European regions and some parts of the
Continental climate zones might become more attractive for tourism
Most heavily affected areas in the Mediterranean and in mountainous regions
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Tourism (2)
Share of employment in hotels and
restaurants
Share of high employment in the
tourism sector mainly in the
Mediterranean and mountainous areas.
This coincides with expected negative
impacts in the Mediterranean on
summer tourism and in mountainous
areas on winter tourism.
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Human health
Climate induced impacts:
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direct effect of climate change on human health:
– under a 2°C scenario, the number of heat-related deaths could increase 2-3 times
in urban areas.
– Heat related deaths could reach 100,000 a year under the A2 scenario in 2100.
Cold-related deaths will decrease, mainly in northern Europe.
– By 2080 under the A2 scenario the net effect of the decrease in cold related deaths
and the increase in heat-related deaths is 86,000 more deaths a year. The B2
scenario would result in a net increase of 36,000 deaths. South of Europe most
affected
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extreme weather events, such as storms and floods
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availability and quality of drinking water: additional number of people affected by water
stress 16-44 million by 2070
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increase in food and vector born diseases in previously relatively unaffected regions
Effect of climate change influenced by other trends and circumstances:
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aging of resident population
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health infrastructure (e.g. number of hospital beds low in Mediterranean)
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Energy
Climate induced impacts:
• increasing demand for summer cooling in the south and decreasing demand
for winter heating in the north
• change in hydropower production: increase in hydropower production
potential may exceed 25% in the north, a decrease of the same magnitude
will occur in the south
• increase in the temperature of cooling water of power plants will also result
in decreased production levels, especially in the south
• the potential production of biomass will be affected differently in different
climate zones.
• conditions for solar energy production may improve
• likely to lead to greater fluctuations of energy production, particularly in
regions with a high share of renewable energy and varying water availability
for cooling in fossil fuel and nuclear power plants.
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Asymmetric impacts of climate change
• Regional growth
– mild impacts in urban areas on economic sectors
– potentially strong impact on assets in densely populated areas with high
asset values
– strong impacts on weather dependent sectors (tourism, agriculture,
fishery, forestry, energy)
• Sustainability
– increased pressure on natural resources in both demand and supply (e.g.
increased demand for water in times of drought accompanied by
decreased supply)
• Equity
– strongly negatively affected in areas with high temperature increases and
peak summer temperatures and low water availability
– Low income = lower capacity to adapt
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Adaptation to the impacts of climate
change
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Vulnerability = exposure + sensitivity + adaptive capacity
"Vulnerability to climate change can be classified as exposure to changes in
the climate, sensitivity – the degree to which a system is affected by or
responsive to climate stimuli, and adaptive capacity – the ability to prepare for,
respond to and tackle the effects of climate change." (Stern Review)
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The need for adaptation
Climate change is unavoidable: even if all emissions stopped now, a
further 0.5-1°C increase in the global annual mean surface temperature
would be experienced in the coming decades due to time lags in the
response of the climate and oceanic systems
dampening the effects of climate change: adaptation is "an adjustment in
the natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic
stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial
opportunities associated with climate change" (IPCC TAR)
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Adaptation strategies
Alternative approaches for uncertainty management (source Hulme, 2008)
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Adaptation potential
Adaptation potential is determined by
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information on the nature and evolution of the climate hazards faced by
a society, as well as information on socio-economic systems, including
both past and possible future evolution,
resources, including financial capital, social capital (e.g., strong
institutions, transparent decision-making systems, formal and informal
networks that promote collective action), human resources (e.g., labour,
skills, knowledge and expertise) and natural resources (e.g., land, water,
raw materials, biodiversity)
the ability of a society to act collectively, and to resolve conflicts
between its members, which is heavily influenced by governance, key
actors accepting responsibility for adaptation.
Adaptation potential (in particular resources and collective action) may be
lower in some Objective 1 regions
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Cohesion Policy and climate change
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Cohesion Policy and Climate Change in the period 2007-2013
Cohesion Policy spending on environment in the 2007-2013 programming
period
• 14.5% of total Community amount on investments directly related to the
environment
• a further 15.8% of total Community amount for investments indirectly related to
the environment
• a total of 30.4%, including both direct and indirect figures
• approx. 90% of this spending under the Convergence objective
Cohesion Policy spending on climate change in the 2007-2013 programming
period
• 4.82% of total Community amount on investments directly related to climate
change (renewable energy, energy efficiency, mitigation and adaptation to
climate change, air quality, risk prevention)
• a further 9.2% of total Community amount for investments indirectly related to
climate change (railways, mobile rail assets, cycle tracks, intelligent transport
systems, clean urban transport)
• a total of 13.9%, including both direct and indirect figures
• approx. 90% of this spending under the Convergence objective
No separate category for adaptation to climate change, spending on adaptation
activities now known
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Cohesion Policy and climate change adaptation after 2013 (1)
Work is only now beginning on question regarding scope for financing
of adaptation activities under CP after 2013, no decisions have been
taken.
What do we know at this time?
1. Horizontal approach:
• Not considering climate change will result in suboptimal investments which
will not be viable in the long term  the fact of climate change has to be
taken into account
– Increase resilience of entire systems
– Analyse costs of increased investment compared with lower damages to
infrastrure in future  Climate proof individual investments?
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OPs projects have to comply with EU legislation. Already existing
legislation related to climate change adaptation are e.g.
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Cohesion Policy and climate change adaptation after 2013 (2)
Financing of adaptation activities through CP?
• There has to be a rationale for public involvement. Climate Change
adaptation involves multiple market failures (Stern):
– uncertainty and imperfect information,
– missing and misaligned markets (including public goods), and
– financial constraints.
• Other EU and national policies to deal with climate change exist, the main
aim of Cohesion Policy is economic and social cohesion
• Focus of CP is on regions and territorial cooperation  there are problems
which are best addressed at regional level, or in the framework of territorial
cooperation because of the scope of the problem, the availability of
information, etc.
• If an EU policy is used, there should be added value of European
involvement, i.e. EU action has to provide added value compared with
individual action by regions or MS
• If EU money is spent, spending should be efficient  it should be shown
that the problem cannot be sufficiently addressed by less public
involvement, e.g. legislation, market based mechanisms
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Cohesion Policy and climate change adaptation after 2013 (2)
Tasks for CP or regions?
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Role of CP:
– Provides general framework
– Provides complementary financing
– Coordinates
– Helps cross border networking
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Role of regions:
– To evaluate regional threats and potential, strengths and weaknesses
– To develop regional plan for adaptation (likely based on national
framework and framework to be provided by the Adaptation White
Paper)
– To implement adaptation activities
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Thank you for your attention!
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