Transcript SEARCH_FPM_Overview_JG

South Eastern Australian Recent
Climate History (SEARCH) final
project meeting
Dr Joëlle Gergis
Australian Research Council Fellow, SEARCH project leader
School of Earth Sciences
University of Melbourne
South Eastern Australian Recent Climate
History (SEARCH) Project: Sept 2009–Aug 2012
- Multi-disciplinary Australian Research
Council (ARC) Linkage Project
- Meteorologists, palaeoclimatologists
hydrologists, historians, joined by a broad
range of partner organisations
- Three research themes:
• Palaeoclimatology – APDI fellow
Joelle Gergis
• Early weather records (pre Bureau of
Meteorology) – PhD student Linden
Ashcroft
• Historical documentary sources –
PhD student Claire Fenby
- Looking at extending southeastern
Australia’s climate record and assessing
how climate variability has influenced
society since 1788
The 1997–2009 ‘Big Dry’ in south-eastern Australia
- Average surface temperatures over
Australia have increased by 0.7°C since
1960, while mean temperatures have
risen by ~1°C in SE Australia over the
past 50 years
- Lowest 13-year rainfall period since
instrumental records began in 1900,
followed by very wet 2010-11.
- How does the 1997–2009 drought
compare to events not recorded in 20th
century weather records?
- Is SE Australia seeing the start of a
similar drying trend found in SW Western
Australia since 1970s?
Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Record low inflows to Melbourne catchments
• During 1997-2011, Melbourne catchments received inflows 30% below long
term averages, even including the heavy rain in 2010 and 2011
• How much is natural decadal variability and how much is due to humaninfluenced increases in temperature?
Source: Melbourne Water
Is the recent drying in SEA extreme climate variability or
unprecedented climate change?
- Despite large climate variability and major societal impacts, we still don’t
know how temperature and rainfall have fluctuated during pre-industrial times
- We can improve estimates of the range of natural climate variability by
looking at pre-C20th records provided by palaeoclimate and historical sources
Dust storm Mildura, VIC 1940
Source: Museum Victoria
Flood, Punt Rd, Melbourne 1891
Source: Fairfax Publishers
“The further back you look, the further forward you can see”
(Winston Churchill)
Extending south-eastern Australia’s climate
record back to 1788
AIM: To extend SE Australia climate record back to 1788 and investigate the
influence of past climate variability on Australian societies:
1. Instrumental weather observations: Bureau of Meteorology holdings,
weather/farm diaries, early observatories (1788–2012)
2. Documentary records: early settler accounts, newspapers, government
records (1788–1900)
3. Palaeoclimate data: tree-rings, corals, cave records, ice cores (200–1000
years)
Project objectives
• Objectives:
1. Compile and quantify climate information from Australian
documentary data (A.D. 1788–1900)
2. Retrieve, digitise and analyse weather station data for southeastern Australia (A.D. 1788–1900)
3. Assemble annually-resolved palaeoclimate data for southeastern Australia (A.D. 1500–2008)
4. Evaluate coherent variations in 20th century south-eastern
Australian temperature, rainfall and atmospheric pressure and
their expression in the proxy data obtained through Objectives 1–3
5. Develop annual multi-proxy rainfall, temperature and
atmospheric pressure reconstructions for (i) A.D. 1788–1900 and
(ii) A.D.1500–1900 periods
Why we’re all here
•
Australia is extremely vulnerable to climate change: 58%
of our population lives in SEA
•
Urgent need to establish natural range of climate
variability to distinguish the anthropogenic climate
change signal: currently limited to C20th climate records
•
The project was timely and seminal: first project of its
kind in Australasia… we are breaking new ground here
•
Policy relevant research that will help guide regional
decision makers (e.g. our Natural Resource Management
partners)
•
This project is a showcase example of the humanities
and science working together
Outline of the day’s events
•
Discussion of project outcomes:
- Theme 1: palaeoclimatology
- Theme 2: early weather data
- Theme 3: documentary records
- Communications and outreach activities
•
Discussion of future collaborative opportunities
•
Partner organisation feedback
•
Public lecture State Library of Victoria 5:30pm