Transcript Developing and Applying Scenarios: A summary from the Third

Developing and Applying Scenarios:
A summary from the
Third Assessment Report
Roger N. Jones
CSIRO Atmospheric Research
Atmospheric Research
Acknowledgments
Tim Carter CLA Chapter III & slides
Emilio La Rovere, Rik Leemans, Linda
Mearns, ‘Naki’ Nakicenovic, Barrie Pittock,
Sergei Semenov, Jim Skea, Mike Hulme
Atmospheric Research
Chapter 13 WG I
Climate Scenario Development
Mearns and Hulme et al.
Distinguishes between
Climate change scenarios (representation
of change from baseline)
Climate scenarios (representation of future
climate)
Atmospheric Research
Chapter 13 WG I
Climate Scenario Development
Mearns and Hulme et al.
Key development of methods, for:
Representing uncertainty
High resolution information
Variability and extreme events
Atmospheric Research
Chain of dependencies in global
change scenarios
Emissions scenarios
Concentrations projections
Radiative forcing projections
Climate projections
Sea level projections
Interactions and feedbacks
Socioeconomic assumptions
Regional scenarios
Impacts
Source: Mearns et al., 2001
Atmospheric Research
Typology of extreme climate events
Description
Variable
Measure
Exceeding critical
level on a continuous
scale
Extreme rainfall
Temperature
Frequency
Return period
Sequence
Duration
Complex Weather events
events
combining multiple
variables and/or
resulting in multiple
impacts
Tropical cyclones
ENSO events
Drought
Frequency 
magnitude
Severity of
impacts
Singular
events
Cessation of deep- Probability 
ocean circulation
magnitude of
Ice sheet collapse impact
Type
Simple
events
A possible future
climatic state with
potentially extreme
outcomes
Atmospheric Research
Chapter 3 WG II
Developing and Applying Scenarios
Carter and La Rovere
Major developments
Features non-climatic scenarios
Characterises SRES scenarios
Recommends consistency between
scenarios
Uncertainty, variability and extremes (As
for Ch. 13)
Atmospheric Research
Types of scenarios
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Climate
Socioeconomic
Land-use and Land-cover Change
Environmental
Sea-level rise
Atmospheric Research
Structure of Chapter 3
Cross cutting
Other environmental changes (3.4)
Climate change (3.5)
Sea-level rise (3.6)
Interactions & feedbacks (3.7)
Land-use and land-cover change (3.3)
Consistency (3.7)
Reference conditions
Socio-economic changes (3.2)
Vulnerability, exposure to stimuli and adaptive capacity
Atmospheric Research
Socioeconomic scenarios
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Baseline socioeconomic vulnerability
Pre-climate change
Determine climate change impacts
Post-adaptation vulnerability
Atmospheric Research
Land-use and land-cover scenarios
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Food security
Carbon cycling
Current and future land-use
Integrated assessment models most
appropriate for developing LUCC
scenarios
Atmospheric Research
Environmental scenarios
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Atmospheric carbon dioxide
Tropospheric ozone
Acidifying compounds
UV radiation
Water resources
Marine pollution
Atmospheric Research
Sea-level rise scenarios
• Need long baseline records
• Need to estimate relative sea level
rather than absolute
• Regional variations unknown
• Variability important
• Amenable to risk assessment
Atmospheric Research
The Special Report on Emissions
Scenarios (SRES)
Source: Nakićenović et al. (2000)
Atmospheric Research
Projected changes in extreme climate
events and impacts
Source: IPCC WG II SPM, 2001
Atmospheric Research
Projected changes in extreme climate
events and impacts
Source: IPCC WG II SPM, 2001
Atmospheric Research