Transcript PPT
Global Challenges towards a Low Carbon Society (LCS) through Sustainable Development (SD) Introduction Nov. 8, 2006 UNFCCC COP12/MOP2 UNON, Nairobi Shuzo Nishioka National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan CCSR/NIES/FRCGC, Japan Surface Air Temperature Change (1900=0 oC) 5.0 5 年 GHG-475ppm 年 Year GHG-500ppm GHG-550ppm GHG-650ppm Relationship between human-induced GHG emissions, atmospheric GHG concentration, and increase in global mean temperature. (Calculated by AIM/Impact[policy] Model) 2100 2090 2080 2070 2060 0 Year BaU 650 550 500 50% reduction 2050 0.0 GHG 475ppm 2040 GHG: Greenhouse gases 10 2030 1.0 15 2020 GHG475ppm BaU 2010 475 20 2000 2.0 Global GHG emissions 1990 650 550 500 3.0 GHG emissions (Gt-Ceq) BaU Temperature raise (global average) 温室効果ガス排出量 (二酸化炭素換算：GtC/年) 4.0 25 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 2120 2130 2140 2150 Global mean temperature increase 気温上昇 (1990年=0.6℃) pre-industrial level) (oC above the “Low-carbon societies are necessary to avoid dangerous climate change.” Low Carbon Japan: 2050 脱温暖化 2050 NIES ｒｅｓｅｒａｃｈ ｐｒｏｊｅｃｔ （２００４－２００８） 60 researchers Global Environmental Research Programme http://2050.nies.go.jp Deep cut of GHG into 20-40% by 2050 What will be the image of the LC society? How to attain the goal? How to change energy demand /supply structure? Current per capita CO2 emissions and Target 6 $200/t-C scenario US 5 US: delay for tech development, global warming business Canada 4 EU: Initiatives toward LCS Japan: Need long-term vision UK Germany 3 2 France METI, Japan Developing countries: earlier 2030 scenario guidance toward LCS is key Japan 2050 scenario World China 2050 2020 2010 2000 1990 1980 2040 IB1 India 0 Target for Low Carbon Society IA2 2030 1 1970 CO2 per capita emissions (t-C/cap) 7 Shuzo Nishioka, Junichi Fujino; NIES COP11 and COP/MOP1 side event Global Challenges Toward Low-Carbon Economy (LCE), Dec.3, 2005 The first workshop on Japan–UK Joint Research Project “Developing visions for a Low Carbon Society (LCS) through sustainable development” on June 2006, Tokyo 54 participants from 19 countries and 6 international organizations; Asia: Japan, China, India, Thailand, Taiwan (China) Africa: South Africa, Nigeria Europe: UK, France, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Netherlands, Russia Latin America: Brazil, Mexico, Chile North America: US, Canada A second workshop will be held in UK, June 2007 Toward a Low-Carbon Society, we need to – take actions that are compatible with the principles of sustainable development, ensuring that the development needs of all groups within society are met; – make an equitable contribution towards the global effort to stabilise atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases at a level that will avoid dangerous climate change through deep cuts in global emissions; – demonstrate high levels of energy efficiency, use of lowcarbon – energy sources and production technologies, and sustainable land use practices; – adopt patterns of consumption and behaviour that are consistent with low levels of GHG emissions. Programme: Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies PR. Shukla (Indian Institute of Management, India) Modeling LCS to Identify Trend-Breaking Options Junichi Fujino (NIES, Japan) National and Global Cooperation to Achieve LCS through SD David Warrilow (Defra, UK) Panel discussion : SD-PAMs Stanford Mwakasonda (University of Cape Town, South Africa) Renewable Energy Martin Weiss (Federal Environmental Agency, Germany) Technology RD&D Comment Jiang Kejun (Energy Research Institute, China) Robert Dixon (IEA) Open Discussion Jonathan Pershing (WRI)