Transcript The Future Ain`t What it Use to Be

Critical Issues
in Transportation
2011
“The Future Ain’t What it Use to Be”
February 17, 2011
The UVM Transportation Research Center (TRC) is a hub for:
•Innovative and interdisciplinary research
•Education and outreach on sustainable transportation system
solutions.
Since our founding in 2006, the TRC has:
•attracted over $3.5 million to UVM in new external grants;
•funded 67 graduate students with $28K stipends;
•hosted over 3,200 people at its events;
•created seven
new courses.
Four Key Factors
Shaping our Future
•
•
•
•
Demographics
Energy Costs
Climate Change
Funding
Which Sector uses the most Energy in
the United States?
A.Residential
B. Commercial
C. Industrial
D.Transportation
Energy Costs
U.S. Oil Use By Sector
Residential
7%
Electricity
1%
Industrial
23%
Transportation
69%
Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2005
Data are for 2005
U.S. Vehicle miles traveled (1925-2009)
U.S. Motorization: Cars per 1,000 People
Source: David Jones, Mass Motorization and Mass Transit, 2008.
Vehicle Occupancy by Trip Purpose
Distance home to school (miles)
Driving Kids to School Increases
Source: National Household Travel Survey, 2009. http://nhts.ornl.gov/
Vermonters’ Trip Length
Trends In Personal Mobility
• 75% of trips taken by car are less than 1 mile
• People who walk to work dropped by 26%
between 1990 and 2000.
• The average American driver spends 443
hours per year, or 55 8-hour working days behind
the wheel
• Only 1 American in 200 rides a bicycle to
work.
Demographics
D
E
M
O
G
R
A
P
H
I
C
S
Source: NIH
Which State has the highest median
age:
A.Florida
B.Maine
C.Vermont
D.New Hampshire
Demographics
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
Geographic area
United States
Maine
Vermont
West Virginia
Florida
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Data Set: 2007 Population Estimates
Median
36.6
41.6
40.8
40.4
39.9
39.8
39.7
Demographics
•2000-2006: New England’s population up
347,000
•Increase 407,000 in minority population
•Decrease of 60,000 in white population
•Gain of 2.5 % is less than half that of the
nation as a whole.
Carsey Institute –
UNH 2008
Why should transportation professionals
care about public health?
Demographics
Obesity and public health concerns
Demographics
Obesity and public health concerns
How much does obesity cost our three states
annually?
A.
B.
C.
D.
$300 million
$500 million
$750 million
$1 billion
Estimated Adult Obesity-Attributable
Percentages and Expenditures, by State
(BRFSS 1998–2000)
State
Maine
New Hampshire
Vermont
TOTAL
(Millions $)
$357
$302
$141
$800
Climate Change
•Transportation is the fastest growing source of
greenhouse gases in the United States, accounting for
28% of total greenhouse gas emissions in 2006.
•Transportation is also the largest end-use source of
carbon dioxide (CO2)—the most prevalent greenhouse
gas.
•28% of the energy we use in the US goes to
transporting people and goods from one place to
another.
How is climate change affecting our
transportation system?
A. Increased freeze thaw cycle reduces structural
life expectancy
B. Increased temperatures leads to pavement and
rail buckling
C. Increased rainfall/intensity leads to more
flooding and associated bridge, culvert and
roadway washouts
D. Increased wind force increase scour impact on
bridges
E. All of the above and more
Climate Change
US GHG Emissions by Sector
Figure credit: Davies, J. and C. Facanha.
Funding
•8,420,589 lane miles
•46,630 miles of interstate
•3,014,116 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT)
•599 million train miles traveled
•599,766 road bridges
•5,202 public use airports
•360 commercial sea and river ports
•7,700 public transit agencies
• 53,353 million passenger miles on public
transit
•29,627 miles of inland waterways
In 2006, federal, state and local expenditures on
transportation totaled $199.4 billion, including:
• $99.8 billion Highway
• $44.1 billion Transit
• $1.5 billion Rail
• $41.2 billion Air
• $10.9 billion Water
• $91 million Pipeline
ARRA added an additional $48 billion in
transportation spending
Should we raise revenue to maintain
our current infrastructure?
A. Yes
B. No
How would you raise these funds?
The Future?
What are potential energy
savings in transportation?
Increased Electrical Need to Electrify Current
Fleet with Current Travel Behavior
“The Future Ain’t What it Use to Be”
Burning the last street car in downtown Burlington, Main St. Aug 4, 1929, Courtesy of Special
Collections, Bailey Howe Library