Transcript Global and Climate Change

SAME Washington DC Post
30 July 2009
USACE Climate Change Activities
Kate White, PhD, PE
US Army Corps of Engineers
Institute for Water Resources
[email protected]
Campaign Plan Objective 2a Systems Approach:
Temporal and Spatial Changes PDT
“ Building Strong “
1
Outline
• Perspectives on Climate Change
–
–
–
–
Military roots
OODA Loop
Wicked problems
Modification of
OODA Loop
• It’s all about decision-making
• Climate adaptation
and mitigation
• Some USACE Activities
“ Building Strong “
2
First, a little history……
• Military Role in Early Climate History
– Roots began with the “Agreement relating to the
Defense of Greenland” signed June 1941
– Thule Air Base, 1951- present
– Camp Century 1959-1966
– Ballistic Missile Early
Warning System (BMEWS)
• Field and logistics
supported by:
–
–
–
–
US Army
US Air Force
US Navy
Air National Guard
MG Riley with 6,000 year-old ice core,
USACE ERDC-CRREL, October 2007
“ Building Strong “
3
USACE Involvement
• Between 1950’s and 1980’s,
USACE was involved in drilling
polar ice cores in Greenland and
Antarctica
• 1952-1955: USACE exploration of
Greenland for Air Force
– Carl Benson’s work basis for using
oxygen isotope ratio measurements in a
continuous mode to reliably determine
annual accumulation cycles
– Henri Bader transformed Sorge’s 1930’s
data into a mathematical expression
• Ice cores led to other proxies for
climate change: tree rings,
sediment cores, glacier lengths,
others
Camp Century Greenland 1964
“ Building Strong “http://www.crrel.usace.army.mil/library/technicalreports/ERDC-CRREL-TR-08-1.pdf
4
Proxies: Window to the Past
2000-Year Temperature Reconstruction
A Little History
NRC 2006, Surface temperature reconstruction for the last 2000 years: Washington, DC: National Academy Press
“ Building Strong “
5
Application of Boyd’s OODA Loop
• USACE must turn data into information for
decision makers
• Boyd’s OODA loop: Observe, Orient, Decide, Act
– We tend to filter data to make it understandable
– We need to speed the tempo and make quality decisions
with less than perfect information
ACT
ACTION
ACTION
DECIDE
KNOWLEDGE
KNOWLEDGE
ORIENT
OBSERVE
INFORMATION
INFORMATION
DATA
DATA
“ Building Strong “
6
“ Building Strong “
June 1995, “The Essence of Winning and Losing,”by John Boyd
More detailed look at OODA Loop
7
Consider “Wicked Problems”
• “Wicked Problems” (Rittel and
Webber 1973, concept also cited in
TRADOC PAM 525-5-500)
– Climate change and related stressors
– Economic and social considerations
– Complex system components
understood to varying degrees
• “Water policy problems are wicked
… challenges of becoming more
effective in our interdisciplinary
collaboration, of integrating two very different
types of knowledge, of working across several
socio-political units of analysis simultaneously,
and of better organizing water as a common
resource.” (Freeman, JAWRA 2000)
“ Building Strong “
8
“Wicked Problems”
TRADOC PAM 525-5-500
• Wicked Problems “cannot be resolved merely by
gathering additional data, defining issues more
clearly, or breaking them down into small
problems.” (Camillus, HBR May 2008)
Decision-Making
“ Building Strong “
9
OODA Loop Modification Needed
for Wicked Problems
• Wicked Problems perspective ID’d flaws in
OODA application to very complex problems
– People tend to get stuck in the oo-oo-oo
• Limited by
expectations
• Weak signals are
often missed
(filters)
– Data-driven system
not able to solve wicked
problems faster than
they evolve
– Borne out by military
experiences in Iraq
Sketchpad, April 30, 2004
“ Building Strong “
10
Solving Tough Problems
solved using
processes that are
“systemic,
emergent and
participatory.”
solved using
processes that are
“piecemeal,
backward looking,
and
authoritarian.”
From Kahane 2004
“ Building Strong “
11
Modification to OODA Loop
• Decision-driven: Decide, Observe, Orient, Act
– Multiple scenarios
• Provide retrospective view
• Allow different view of current situation
• Explore potential futures
– Explicitly deal with weak signals which often require
strong responses
“ Building Strong “
12
Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre
http://www.dcdc-strategictrends.org.uk/home.aspx
Multiple Stressor Challenges:
Making Decisions Under Uncertainty
2036
USACE Perspective
“ Building Strong “
Defence Concepts and Doctrine Centre
13
Global and Climate Change:
What do we know?
• The world is
changing
Global Climate Change
Impacts in the United States,
Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M.
Melillo, and Thomas C.
Peterson, (eds.). Cambridge
University Press, 2009
http://www.globalchange.gov/
publications/reports/scientificassessments/usimpacts/download-the-report
“ Building Strong “
14
Global and Climate Change:
What do we know?
• Happening even faster
than previously
estimated
• Global CO2 emissions
since 2000 have been
higher than even the
highest predictions
• Arctic sea ice has been
melting at rates much
faster than predicted
• Sea level rise has
become more rapid
• Feedbacks in the climate
system might lead to
much more rapid climate
changes
11 June 11 2009, G8 countries, plus Brazil, China, India,
Mexico, and South Africa
“ Building Strong “
15
Global and Climate Change:
What do we know?
• The world is changing
• Changes can be abrupt
~8°C change
in 10 yrs
Climate changes in central Greenland over the last 17,000 years show a large and rapid shift out of the ice age about
15,000 years ago, an irregular cooling into the Younger Dryas event, and an abrupt shift out of the event (a warming
of about 8° C in a decade) toward modern values. from NRC (2002) Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises
“ Building Strong “
16
Global and Climate Change:
What do we know?
• Changes are global and confounding
Brekke et al (2009) Climate Change and Water Resources Management: A Federal Perspective http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1331/
“ Building Strong “
17
Global and Climate Change:
What do we know?
• Global changes pose “wicked problems”
– Climate change and related stressors
– Economic and social considerations
– Complex system components that are
understood to varying degrees
Figure 5.2, changes in US farm output 1929-2000, from NRC (2002) Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises
“ Building Strong “
18
Global and Climate Change:
What do we know?
• Water resources managers
must use a dynamic paradigm
rather than an equilibrium
paradigm
– We must evaluate the assumption
of stationarity — “the idea that
natural systems fluctuate within
an unchanging envelope of
variability”
– “Climate change undermines a
basic assumption that historically
has facilitated management of
water supplies, demands, and
risks”
“ Building Strong “
19
Global and Climate Change:
What do we know?
• Changes are
seasonal
• There is
regional
variation in the
agreement
between various
general
circulation
models
Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R.
Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson, (eds.).
Cambridge University Press, 2009
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientificassessments/us-impacts/download-the-report
“ Building Strong “
20
Global and Climate Change:
How are we dealing with it?
•
•
•
•
•
Recognizing the interaction of sectoral impacts
Improving understanding of regional differences
Identifying sources of uncertainty
Evaluating impacts to built and natural infrastructure
Increasing interagency collaboration (science and policy)
DJF
JJA
Fractional change in precipitation from 1980–1999 to 2080–2099, averaged over 21 models (see fig. 11.12; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 2007 Summary for Policy Makers) superimposed over a map of navigation from DOT freight analysis (see red lines; Caldwell et al, 2002).
“ Building Strong “
21
Global and Climate Change:
How are we dealing with it?
• Impacts to building
and construction:
– Water
– Food
– Energy
• Responses
– Adaptation
• Adjustments or changes in
decision-making to
enhance resilience or
reduce vulnerability to
observed or expected
changes in climate
– Mitigation
• Implementing policies to
reduce GHG emissions
and enhance sinks
“ Building Strong “
22
How are we dealing with it?
Interagency Workgroup
• The four major US water
resources agencies:
– Operating Agencies:
USACE, Bureau of Reclamation
– Science Agencies:
USGS, NOAA
• Mission:
– To evaluate practices of federal
agencies to incorporate climate
change considerations into
activities related to Nation's
water resources
– Provide foundation for future
policies
• Released February 2009
“ Building Strong “
http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1331/
23
Climate Change and Water
Working Group (C-CAWWG)
Moving to Decision-Based Science
Defining Needs
Developing Research and
Technology Strategies
Water Supply,
Hydropower,
Ecosystem Needs,
Recreation, Etc.
Climate Change and
Variability, Climate
and Weather
Predictability
Flood Risk Mgmt,
Navigation,
Hydropower,
Etc.
Surface Water,
Groundwater,
Ecosystems, Etc.
Future Participation from other Fed, State, Local agencies…
Long-Term Needs report in internal review
Short-Term needs report in draft
“ Building Strong “
24
How are we dealing with it?
Guidance on Sea-Level Change
•
•
•
•
•
Interagency team (USACE, NOAA, USGS)
Internal and external reviews using USGS process
Provide technical background
Use multiple scenario approach
Engineer Circular 1165-2-211,
1 July 09
IPCC 2007 AR4 WG2 Figure 6.1. Climate change and the
coastal system showing the major climate change factors,
including external marine and terrestrial influences.
“ Building Strong “
25
ARRA: Climate Change
Downscaling Projections
•
•
Builds on interagency CMIP3 archive for US domain
Bias Correction/Spatial Downscaling (BCSD)
– Uses fine-scale climate observations to
1. Adjust future climate projections based on errors in
simulations of historical climate, and
2. Add spatial detail to the coarse-resolution results
– Described by Wood et al. (2002 and 2004)
•
Bias-Corrected/Constructed Analogs (BCCA)
– Obtains fine-scale information from observations
– Uses empirical relationships between observed large-scale
and fine-scale daily weather patterns to add detail to coarse
simulations
– Described by Hidalgo et al. (2008), Maurer and Hidalgo (2008)
– Daily time steps to assess project operations
“ Building Strong “
26
Ongoing Activities
• Continued international
collaboration
– International Polar Year activities
– Permanent International
Association of Navigation
Congresses (PIANC)
– Australia’s National Climate
Change Adaptation Research Facility
– Studies supporting Columbia River
treaty
• Research and development
– Basic science → applied engineering
– Improvements to numerical models
for reservoir simulation
– Interagency, competitive funding
“ Building Strong “
27
Ongoing Activities
• Participation in the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports
• Integrated Water Resources Management approach
– Incorporate new information throughout life cycle
– Proactive adaptive management
– Framework recommended by IPCC for climate change
adaptation
• Great Lakes studies for the International Joint
Commission considering climate change in
developing plans to improve the management of
Great Lakes water levels and outflows
– International Joint Commission Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River
(LOSL) Study
– International Joint Commission Upper Great Lakes Study (IUGLS)
• Risk analyses for new and unexpected climate
impacts
• Collaboration, collaboration, collaboration
“ Building Strong “
28
Upcoming Activities
• Planned carbon budget study
– Identify carbon sources/sinks
– Implement methods to measure and value carbon
uptakes and emissions for USACE activities
• Workshop on nonstationarity fall 2009
• Evaluation of coastal vulnerabilities
“ Building Strong “
29
Upcoming Activities
• FY10-14 Climate Adaptations Program
– We define adaptation as adjustments or changes in
decision-making to enhance resilience or reduce
vulnerability to observed or expected changes in climate
– Conducting vulnerability stress-tests within the CW O&M
portfolio of built and natural
• Focus on highest priorities
• Focus on existing portfolio
– Support for regulators on dealing with climate change in
permitting decisions
– Methods, policies and demonstrations of:
• Water control and reservoir systems operations
• Hydrologic frequency analysis under changing
conditions
• Changing snow conditions and ice impacts, coastal
erosion and unexpected flood events due to glacial
dam outbursts
• Impacts of climate change on ecosystems and their
potential effects
“ Building Strong “
30
Questions?
“ Building Strong “
31
Sea Level Change Scenarios
• High: modified
(updated) NRC 1987
curve III
• Intermediate:
modified (updated)
NRC 1987 curve I
• Low: extrapolation
of historic trend
• Key is to ask When
is this likely to occur
(i.e., look across the
curves)
Note: IPCC 2007 does not provide intermediate data
points, high and low SRES scenarios shown for
reference to intermediate (modified) curve I
“ Building Strong “
32
Downscaling Pros/Cons
•
Dynamical – Spatially Distributed
+
+
+
–
–
•
variable rich
supports watershed or large-region view
not limited by “stationarity” of a transfer function
computationally expensive, so scenario-poor, also complex
bias-correction difficult to address (before RCM simulation? after?)
Statistical – Single Location
variable rich as long as local data available to support such an application
does not easily support watershed or large-region view
limited by “stationarity” of the transfer function
computationally cheap so scenario-rich application more affordable and
less complex
+ bias-correction can be addressed
+
–
–
+
•
Empirical – Spatially Distributed
–
+
–
+
variable poor relative to other approaches
supports watershed or large-region view
limited by “stationarity” of the Transfer Function
computationally cheap making scenario-rich application affordable; less
complex
+ bias-correction can be addressed
“ Building Strong “
33
Potential Applications
•
Dynamical – Spatially Distributed
– (*) Physical evaluation - extreme event potential? local scale?
• (*) Caveat – presuming credibility of the RCM to reproduce
historical phenomena
– Assess significance of “stationarity” assumptions (i.e. compare
Dynamical and Empirical)
– Air quality investigations
•
Statistical – Location-specific
– Local view…
– Risk-based planning requiring a scenario-rich dataset (priority on
projection uncertainty)
– Adaptation planning requiring flexible consideration of future periods
(priority on scheduling when adaptation measures might be needed)
•
Empirical – Spatially Distributed
– Watershed or large-region view…
– Risk-based planning requiring a scenario-rich dataset (priority on
projection uncertainty)
– Adaptation planning requiring flexible consideration of future periods
(priority on scheduling when adaptation measures might be needed)
“ Building Strong “
34
Highlights
• Key Point 1: The best available scientific evidence
based on observations from long-term monitoring
networks indicates
that climate
change is
occurring,
although the
effects differ
regionally.
Global Climate Change Impacts in the United
States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and
Thomas C. Peterson, (eds.). Cambridge
University Press, 2009
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/r
eports/scientific-assessments/usimpacts/download-the-report
Interagency Report
“ Building Strong “
35
Highlights
• Key Point 2: Climate change
could affect all sectors of
water resources management,
since it may require changed
design and operational
assumptions about resource
supplies, system demands or
performance requirements,
and operational constraints.
The assumption of temporal
stationarity in hydroclimate
variables should be evaluated
along with all other
assumptions.
Interagency Report
“ Building Strong “
36
Highlights
• Key Point 3: Climate change is but one of many
challenges facing water resource managers. A
holistic approach to water resources
management includes all significant drivers of
change.
– Ground water depletion
– Legal requirements for environmental flows
– Aging infrastructure
– Demographic shifts (e.g., increased population
near the coastline and along rivers)
– Land use change
– Climate change
Interagency Report
“ Building Strong “
37
Highlights
• Key Point 4: Long-term monitoring networks are
critical for detecting and quantifying climate
change and its impacts. Continued improvement
in the understanding of climate change, its
impacts, and the effectiveness of adaptation or
mitigation actions requires continued operation
of existing long-term monitoring networks and
improved sensors deployed in space, in the
atmosphere, in the oceans, and on the Earth’s
surface.
• Key Point 5: Monitoring needs to focus on
locations that describe the climate signal (for
example, upstream and downstream of major
water-management infrastructure or in vulnerable
ecological reaches).
Interagency Report
“ Building Strong “
38
Highlights
• Key Point 6: Paleoclimate information and stochastic
modeling can be useful for developing climate
scenarios that include a wide range of potential
hydroclimatic conditions. The expanded variability
may allow a more robust evaluation of planning
alternatives, particularly when there is concern that
study outcomes and decisions be sensitive to
climate assumptions.
• Key Point 7: Evidence of past climate change and
current expectations about future climate might lead
to less reliance on historical climate information.
Rather, planning assumptions might instead be
related to projections of future temperature and
precipitation. This can be accomplished using a
multitude of approaches; a best approach has yet to
be determined.
Interagency Report
“ Building Strong “
39
Highlights
• Key Point 8: A System Projection paradigm for
adaptation planning, as opposed to a Stationary
System paradigm, may offer a more appropriate
context for characterizing planning assumptions,
albeit at the potential cost of adding planning
complexity.
• Key Point 9: Adopting alternatives that perform well
over a wide range of future scenarios could improve
system flexibility. Water resources planning and
management requires an appreciation of existing and
potential future uses of water resources, particularly
when public health and safety are involved.
Interagency Report
“ Building Strong “
40
Highlights
• Key Point 10: Adaptive management is an
approach where decisions are made sequentially
over time and allows adjustments to be made as
more information is known. This approach may
be useful in dealing with the additional
uncertainty introduced by potential climate
change.
• Key Point 11: Adaptation options include
operational, demand management, and
infrastructure changes.
Interagency Report
“ Building Strong “
41
Note on Adaptive Management
• Adaptive management is NOT trial and error
but rather a rigorous business process that:
– “promotes flexible decisionmaking that can be
adjusted in the face of uncertainties as outcomes
from management actions and other events
become better understood” (National Research
Council, 2004)
DJF
JJA
– Offers a framework where
robust decision criteria
may be considered
– Is an iterative process of six steps: (1) assess the
problem, (2) design, (3) implement, (4) monitor, (5)
evaluate, and (6) adjust (Williams et al 2007 DOI
Tech Guide)
“ Building Strong “
42
Highlights
• Key Point 12: Research and monitoring are both
needed to fill knowledge gaps and set up advances
in planning capabilities. Although neither will
eliminate all uncertainties, they will provide
significant improvements in understanding the
effects of climate change on water resources,
including quantity and quality, and in evaluating
associated uncertainties and risks required for
better informed decision making.
Interagency Report
“ Building Strong “
43