Transcript National Center for Science and the Environment

Human Action and Climate Change
“Climate Change: Science and Solutions”
8th National Conference on Science, Policy and the Environment
January 16, 2008
Washington, D.C
Thomas Dietz
Director, Environmental Science and Policy Program
Michigan State University
Human Dimensions of Global Change
Encompasses research on human driving forces, vulnerability,
adaptation and mitigation
 Provides a scientific basis for understanding why climate change is
happening, how it will impact things we care about and what can be
done to adapt and mitigate
Good source for more information:
U.S. NRC Committee on Human Dimensions of Global Change
http://www7.nationalacademies.org/hdgc/
Key reports:
New Tools for Environmental Protection: Education, Information and
Voluntary Measures
The Drama of the Commons
Mitigating Climate Change: Stabilization Wedges
 Reducing GHG emissions will
require multiple strategies/
technologies
 Pacala and Socolow identify 15
wedges to stabilize emissions by
2054. Things like:
 Doubling nuclear power
Increase biofuels production
to 50x current in Brazil or US
Capture emissions at source
and sequester
Source: Pacala and Socolow 2004
Mitigating Climate Change: Stabilization Wedges
 There are behavioral wedges
that can be:
 Deployed quickly;
 With low, zero or often
negative costs and minimal
quality of life impacts;
Using solid social science
knowledge; and
 Can be assessed to develop
a logical policy mix
Source: Pacala and Socolow 2004
Environmentally Significant Behaviors
 Environmental activism
 Nonactivist public sphere behaviors
 Petitioning, voting, joining groups
 Behavior in organizations
 Shaping policy and practices
 Private sphere behaviors
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Consumer purchase behaviors
Maintenance of household equipment
Changes in equipment use (lifestyle, curtailment)
Waste disposal behaviors
“Green consumerism”
After Stern 2000
Environmentally Significant Behaviors
 Environmental activism
 Nonactivist public sphere behaviors
 Petitioning, voting, joining groups
 Behavior in organizations
 Shaping policy and practices
 Private sphere behaviors





Consumer purchase behaviors
Maintenance of household equipment
Changes in equipment use (lifestyle, curtailment)
Waste disposal behaviors
“Green consumerism”
After Stern 2000
Environmentally Significant Behaviors
 Environmental activism
 Nonactivist public sphere behaviors
 Petitioning, voting, joining groups
 Behavior in organizations
 Shaping policy and practices
 Private sphere behaviors





Consumer purchase behaviors
Maintenance of household equipment
Changes in equipment use (lifestyle, curtailment)
Waste disposal behaviors
“Green consumerism”
After Stern 2000
The Opportunities
Household and
transportation emissions in
the U.S.:
 32-41% of total U.S.
emissions
 2.1 Billion tons
 8% of world total
 Larger than total
emissions of any nation
except China
 Larger than total for U.S.
industrial sector
After Vandenbergh et al. 2008
Low Hanging Fruit
Criteria:
 High elasticity—relatively small changes can have big payoffs
 High plasticity—relatively easy to implement
 Only things with small, zero or negative costs to the individual
 No major lifestyle changes or capital investments
 Existing research makes behavioral change seem plausible
After York et al. 2002; Vandenbergh et al. 2008
Low Hanging Fruit
7 among dozens of opportunities
 Reduce engine idling
 Reduce standby power use
Faster adoption of compact fluorescents
Adjust temperate setting 2 degrees
Lower water heater temperatures
Maintain tire pressures
Replace vehicle air filters more frequently
After Vandenbergh et al. 2008
Action
Engine idling
Plasticity
Emissions saved
(million tons per year)
10% of drivers comply
6-10
33% reduction
16-22
300 million bulbs
12-37
Thermostat settings
33% of households
18-36
Water temperatures
50% of households
28-38
Tire pressure
33% of drivers comply
14
Air filters
25% of drivers comply
24
Standby power
Compact fluorescents
Total
118-181
After Vandenbergh et al. 2008
The Potential Impact of Behavioral Change
 150 million tons of CO2 by 2014
Equivalent to:
 Removing 26 million automobiles from the road, or
 25% of the reductions in the Lieberman-Warner Act, or
 75% of the new CAFÉ standards , or
 40% of a Pacala/ Socolow global stabilization wedge
 Fast, cheap and easy
C at $10/ ton would allow investment of $1.5 B in these efforts
After Vandenbergh et al. 2008
The Need for Human Dimensions Research
 We are substantially under-investing in both the behavioral wedge and
the research to precede and accompany it.
 We have very substantial literatures on which we can base research to
drive the behavioral wedge into place
But we ignore this literature in assessing and implementing policy
 In its discussion of building energy use, IPCC WG III devotes ~2%
of its discussion to behavior
 Investment in all human dimensions research is small and even
declining
 1991– 3% of US federal global change research budget was
human dimensions
 2006—2 % of a budget of about the same overall size
 We are missing a critically important opportunity!
Please join us for:
"Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region,“
a conference at Michigan State University
April 9-10, 2008
See: environment.msu.edu