Transcript for the lecture

Commerce
Professor Michael Mainelli
“New Learning”
Danish Fairy Tales?
Arthur Andersen and the
Copenhagen Consensus
Barnard’s Inn Hall
Holborn
London EC1N 2HH
© Gresham College
2005
www.gresham.ac.uk
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Fax: +44 (0)20 7831 5208
Email : [email protected]
Outline
The Great ‘Commerce’ Experiment
The “End of History”
Danish connections
Fret-Enomics
Might versus Right
A theory of Commerce?
© Gresham College
2005
www.gresham.ac.uk
“Get a detailed grip on the big picture.”
Chao Kli Ning
The Great ‘Commerce’ Experiment
Adam Smith
Karl Marx
The Great Transformation
Visible Hand versus the Invisible Hand
© Gresham College
2005
www.gresham.ac.uk
The “End of History”
Francis Fukuyama
Emperor’s new clothes
© Gresham College
2005
www.gresham.ac.uk
Danish Connections
Arthur Andersen
Enron
Waste Management
WorldCom
Global Crossing
Qwest…
Tyco, HealthSouth, Adelphia…
Emperor’s new clothes?
© Gresham College
2005
www.gresham.ac.uk
Copenhagen Consensus – 10 out of 33
Climate change
Communicable diseases
Conflicts and arms proliferation
Access to education
Financial instability
Governance and corruption
Malnutrition and hunger
Migration
Sanitation and access to clean water
Subsidies and trade barriers
© Gresham College
2005
www.gresham.ac.uk
Copenhagen Consensus – Go!
Ranking
Challenge
Opportunity
Very
Good
1. Communicable diseases
Control of HIV/AIDS
2. Malnutrition and hunger
Providing micronutrients
3. Subsidies and trade
Trade liberalisation
4. Communicable diseases
Control of malaria
5. Malnutrition and hunger
Development of new agricultural technologies
6. Sanitation and water
Community-managed water supply and sanitation
7. Sanitation and water
Small-scale water technology for livelihoods
8. Sanitation and water
Research on water productivity in food production
9. Governance and corruption
Lowering the cost of starting a new business
10. Migration
Lowering barriers to migration for skilled workers
11. Malnutrition and hunger
Improving infant and child nutrition
12. Communicable diseases
Scaled-up basic health services
13. Malnutrition and hunger
Reducing the prevalence of low-birth-weight (LBW)
14. Migration
Guest worker programmes for the unskilled
15. Climate change
Optimal carbon tax
16. Climate change
The Kyoto Protocol
17. Climate change
Value-at-Risk carbon tax
Good
Fair
Bad
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2005
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Fret-Enomics
Homo economicus
Efficient Markets
Hypothesis
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2005
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Might versus Right
Total Tax Revenue as % of GDP
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1970
1980
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Eu
r
K
U
15
EU
op
e
c
D
O
EC
D
Pa
c
ifi
er
ica
O
EC
D
O
EC
© Gresham College
2005
O
EC
D
Am
To
t
al
1990
2000
Source: OECD
A Theory of Commerce
Economics with finance
Decision theory
Stochastic systems theory
Competitive selection
© Gresham College
2005
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Discussion
What are the frontiers
of our ignorance?
© Gresham College
2005
www.gresham.ac.uk
“Get a big picture grip on the details.”
Chao Kli Ning