Transcript Dr. Jorge Cortés-4

Climate Variability and Climate Change Scenarios for Cocos
Island National Park, Costa Rica, Costa Rica
Eric J. Alfaro
Marine Sciences and Limnology Research Center (CIMAR), School of
Physics and Center for Geophysical Research (CIGEFI).
University of Costa Rica
VII Convención Internacional sobre
Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo
“Formar Conciencia para Salvar al Planeta“
I Congreso Internacional sobre Cambio Climático
Palacio de las Convenciones, Habana, Cuba
July 6 – 10th, 2009
Corresponding author address: Eric J. Alfaro, Centro de Investigación en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología
(CIMAR), Universidad de Costa Rica, 11501-2060 San José, Costa Rica. E-mail: [email protected]
Costa Rica
Isla del Coco National Park is located
in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (5.5ºN,
87ºW), about 500 km offshore of the
nearest Costa Rican continental coast.
• Land area: 51,100
km2 (8.5% of the
total)
• Total (Sea+Land)
area: 598,700
km2
The island is part of the Eastern
Tropical Pacific Seascape
Project that includes the Galapagos
Islands and Marine Reserve
(Ecuador), Coiba National Park
(Panama) and the Colombian islands
of Malpelo and Gorgona.
Project: Knowledge and management of marine and coral reef environments of
Isla del Coco Marine Protected Area (P.I.: Dr. Jorge Cortés-4) . Funded by: the
French Fund for the World's Environment, the Vice-presidency for Research
and Marine Sciences and Limnology Research Center, Universidad de Costa
Rica.
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Ocean Dynamic Study around Isla del
Coco (Co-PI: Dr. Omar Lizano-1)
Climatology and interannual variability of
atmospheric and oceanic parameters at
Isla del Coco (Co-PI: Dr. Eric Alfaro-2)
Physical-Chemical parameters related to
the biodiversity of the coral reefs of Isla del
Coco (Co-PI: M.Sc. Jenaro Acuña-3)
Assesment of the present state,
retrospective analysis and long term
monitoring of coral reef of Isla del Coco
(Co-PI: Dr. Jorge Cortés-4)
Biodiversity study of coral reef organisms
of Isla del Coco (Co-PI: Dr. Jorge Cortés4)
Diversity of the plancton associated with
the Isla del Coco environments (Co-PI: Dr.
Álvaro Morales-5)
Multidisciplinary Approach...
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1
2
4
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3
5
año(-1)
año(0)
año(+1)
r
DEF
0.5
NDE
0.4
OND
0.3
Indice Precipitacion, Isla del Coco
SON
0.2
ASO
JAS
0.1
JJA
0
MJJ
-0.1
AMJ
-0.2
MAM
-0.3
FMA
-0.4
EFM
Niño 1&2
FMA
FMA
MJJ
BN
N
AN
ASO
NDE
FMA
MJJ ASO
Niño 1&2
NDE
FMA
MJJ
ASO
NDE
Precipitación Isla del Coco
BN
N
67(6)***
33(3)
22(2)
44(4)
11(1)**
22(2)
MJJ
AN
0(0)***
33(3)
67(6)***
χ2 = 11.33**, rs = 0.59***, τ = 0.41*** ( = 0.01 => ***, 0.05 => **, 0.10 => * )
Models: CCC1TR, CSI2TR,
ECH4TR, GISSTR, HAD2TR,
ECH3TR, HAD3TR. IPCC,
TAR. Tool:
MAGICC/SCENGEN.
Average changes
A1B scenario, 20 AOGCMs
Moderate emissions, IPCC(2007)
PRECIS
(http://precis.insmet.cu/PrecisCaribe.htm )
Taylor, M.A, A. Centella, J. Charley, I.
Borrajero, A. Bezanilla, J. Campbell, R.
Rivero, T.S. Stephenson, F. Whyte & R.
Watson. 2007. Glimpses of the future: A
Briefing from the PRECIS Caribbean
Climate Change Project, Caribbean
Community Climate Change Centre,
Belmopan, Belize, 24 pp.
SDSM(http://www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios/ )
¡Gracias!
MM5 Numerical Model, Forecast
Validation and Data Assimilation
Collaborators: Dr. Jorge Amador, M.Sc. Erick Rivera, B.Sc.
Marcela Ulate, B.Sc. Ana Durán and Meteorology Student Blanca
Calderón. CIGEFI-UCR
GCMs =>
PRECIS(http://precis.insmet.cu
/Precis-Caribe.htm)
SDSM(http://www.cics.uvic.ca
/scenarios/)
GENERAL OBJECTIVE
- To generate information about the marine
ecosystems of Isla del Coco, in order to
improve its management and conservation
SOME SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES:
- Capacity building of the ACMIC personnel: Chemical and
Biological sampling. Physical and Biological data adquisition.
Early warning of atypical events and conditions. Data and
samples basic analysis.
- Generation of plans for future monitoring activities that could
help conservation and management.
Rainfall data
Why CC matters in this project?
Some expected CC Impacts (IPCC, AR-4, WG-II,
Chaps. 13-Latin America & 16-Small Islands):
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The projected mean warming for Latin America to the end of the century,
according to different climate models, ranges from 1 to 4°C for the SRES
emissions scenario B2 and from 2 to 6°C for scenario A2 (medium confidence).
Under future climate change, there is a risk of significant species extinctions in
many areas of tropical Latin America (high confidence).
The expected increases in sea-level rise (SLR), weather and climatic variability
and extremes are very likely to affect coastal areas (high confidence).
Future sustainable development plans should include adaptation strategies to
enhance the integration of climate change into development policies (high
confidence).
Small islands, whether located in the tropics or higher latitudes, have
characteristics which make them especially vulnerable to the effects of climate
change, sea-level rise, and extreme events (very high confidence).
Climate change is likely to heavily impact coral reefs, fisheries and
othermarine-based resources (high confidence).
New studies confirm previous findings that the effects of climate change on
tourism are likely to be direct and indirect, and largely negative (high
confidence).