Transcript A Path to a Sustainable Low Carbon Future

A Path to a Sustainable Low Carbon Future:
The Triple Challenges of Carbon Reduction, Energy Security
and Cost of our Future Energy Supplies
Science Café: Maddermarket 20th March 2013
Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal
Keith Tovey (杜伟贤) : MA, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv
Reader Emeritus in Environmental Science,
University of East Anglia
1
Increasing Occurrence of Drought
2
Increasing Occurrence of Flood
3
Is Global Warming natural
or man-made?
Natural causes
• Earth’s Orbit
• Sunspot Activity
• Volcanic Eruptions
• Etc.
Reasonable agreement up
to ~ 1960
Man-made causes do not
show particularly good
agreement in early part of
period.
BUT including both manmade and natural gives
good agreement
Arctic Sea Ice Cover 1979 - 2012
Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 1979 ~ 7.01 million sq km
• Red line outlines extent for reference
• Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 2012 ~ 3.44 million sq km
a loss of 51% in 33 years
• Significantly lower in 2012 than average minimum
• Source http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-seaicemin.html
•
5
Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions.
Approximate Carbon Emission factors during electricity generation
including fuel extraction, fabrication and transport.
Fuel
Approx emission factor
Coal
900 – 1000g
Depending on grade and
efficiency of power station
400 – 430g
Assuming CCGT – lower value
for Yarmouth as it is one of most
efficient in Europe
Gas
Nuclear
5 – 10g
Renewables
~0
Overall UK
~530g
Comments
Depending on reactor type
For wind, PV, hydro
Varies on hour by hour basis
depending on generation mix
Embedded carbon from construction is similar for most technologies
e.g. wind, nuclear, coal
solar PV ~ is somewhat higher
gas generation ~ a little less..
6
Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UK
Until 2004, the UK was a net exporter of gas.
Currently only 50% now provided by UK sources.
Gas Production and demand in UK
Billion Cubic Metres
120
100
Reduction because
of switch back to
coal
80
60
40
20
0
1998
Actual UK production
Actual UK demand
Projected production
Projected demand
Actual Production
Actual Demand
2003
Import Gap
2008
2013
2018
In early March 2013, technical issues with pipe line from Norway
and restrictions on LNG imports made UK gas supply tight
7
Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UK
p / kWh
p/kWh
14
Wholesale Electricity Prices
Wholsesale Price of Electricity
4th March 2013
Oil reaches
Langeled Line
$130 a barrel
from Norway
1216
1014
12 UK no longer
810 self sufficient
in gas
8
6
6
4
4
22
0
0
0
3
6
9
12
15
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Time of Day
Severe Cold
Spells
18
2011
21
24
2013
wholesale prices updated to 11th March 2013
At 19:00 on 4th March, Electricity was being sold at a loss of over
6p per unit when transmission and distribution cost are included.
Prices are much more volatile since UK is no longer self sufficient in gas.
8
What are causes of price rises in recent years?
• Since 2004 Electricity Bills for average household have risen
from ~ £230 to around ~£440 or 90% *
Support for renewables in 2011 was £1.285 billion pounds.
- or an increase of 0.39 p/kWh in retail price of electricity.
• At typical unit prices of 12 – 13p per kWh this represents
only a 3% increase in unit charge.
• However wholesale prices had risen from 2p in 2004 to 4.5p
per kWh by end of 2012.
Electricity Wholesale Prices 2013
8
• In the first 70 days of
2013 wholesale price had
rose a further 19%
p/kWh
6
4
2
0
0
10
20
30 40 50 60 70
Day of Year
* Data from Quarterly Energy Prices from DECC Website
9
What are causes of price rises in recent years?
• The main causes are increasing dependence on imported gas
and to a lesser extent profits?? by utility companies??
• Support for Renewables accounts for <<10% of rise in bills
• By 2020 wholesale prices are likely to rise significantly
because of increasing dependence on imported gas.
• Prices of cheaper renewables such as onshore wind are
coming down and will reduce a further 10+% from first April.
• Offshore wind and Photovoltaics are much more costly and
receive twice the support of onshore wind.
• From April 1st Tidal and Wave devices will be receiving 5.5
times the support of onshore wind.
• Nuclear discussion on prices are currently at prices around
15% higher than current total cost of wind.
* Data from Quarterly Energy Prices from DECC Website
10
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
2020 and drivers/barriers
0 - 80% (at present 45- Available now (but gas
50%)
is running out)
Gas CCGT
nuclear fission
(long term)
Energy
Review
2002
~2p +
0 - 15% (France 80%) - new inherently safe
(currently 18% and
designs - some
2.5 - 3.5p
falling)
development needed
9th May
2011 (*)
8.0p
[5 - 11]
7.75p
[5.5 - 10]
Installed Capacity (MW)
notisavailable
earliest
Nuclearfusion
New Build assumes
one new station
completeduntil
each2040
year at
after
2020.not until
nuclear
unavailable
2050 for significant impact
14000
New Build ?
[7.5 - 15]p Available now: Not
Projected
Coal currently
~40% but viable without Carbon
unlikely
10000
"Clean Coal"
2.5
3.5p
Actual
scheduled
to fall
Capture &
before 2025
8000
Sequestration
12000
?
6000
Carbon sequestration either by burying it or using methanolisation to create a new
4000 fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s if then
transport
2000
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011
11
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
drivers/barriers
On Shore Wind
~25% [~15000 x
available now for
3 MW turbines] commercial exploitation
2002
(Gas ~ 2p)
May 2011
(Gas ~ 8.0p) *
~ 2+p
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
1.5MW Turbine
At peak output provides sufficient electricity for
3000 homes – operating for 12 years
On average has provided electricity for 700 –
850 homes depending on year
Future prices from
* Renewable Energy Review – 9th May 2011
Climate Change Committee
12
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
drivers/barriers
On Shore Wind
~25% [~15000 x
available now for
3 MW turbines] commercial exploitation
Off Shore Wind
some technical
development needed to
reduce costs.
25 - 50%
May 2011
2002
(Gas ~ 2p) (Gas ~ 8.0p) *
~ 2+p
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
~2.5 - 3p
12.5p +/- 2.5
Climate Change Committee (9th May 2011) see offshore wind as
being very expensive and recommends reducing planned
expansion by 3 GW and increasing onshore wind by same amount
Scroby Sands has a Load factor of 28.8% - 30% but
nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for
2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time
sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich
13
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
drivers/barriers
On Shore Wind
~25% [~15000 x
available now for
3 MW turbines] commercial exploitation
Off Shore Wind
some technical
development needed to
reduce costs.
25 - 50%
May 2011
2002
(Gas ~ 2p) (Gas ~ 8.0p) *
~ 2+p
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
~2.5 - 3p
12.5p +/- 2.5
Micro Hydro Scheme operating
on Siphon Principle installed at
Itteringham Mill, Norfolk.
Rated capacity 5.5 kW
Hydro (mini micro)
5%
technically mature, but
limited potential
2.5 - 3p
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
11p for
<2MW
projects
14
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
drivers/barriers
May 2011
2002
(Gas ~ 2p) (Gas ~ 8.0p) *
~25%
[~15000
x that
available
now
for might be
Change
Report
suggests
1.6 TWh
(0.4%)
On Climate
Shore Wind
~ 2+p
3
MW
turbines]
commercial
exploitation
achieved by 2020 which is equivalent to ~ 2.0 GW.
some technical
Off Shore Wind
development needed to ~2.5 - 3p
25 - 50%
reduce costs.
Hydro (mini micro)
Photovoltaic
5%
technically mature, but
limited potential
<<5% even
available, but much further
assuming 10 GW of research needed to bring down
installation
costs significantly
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
12.5p +/- 2.5
2.5 - 3p
11p for
<2MW
projects
15+ p
25p +/-8
13-15p (2012
projection)
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
15
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
drivers/barriers
~25% [~15000 x
available now for
On Shore Wind
Transport
Fuels:
3 MW
turbines] commercial exploitation
• Biodiesel?
some technical
Off Shore Wind
development needed to
25 - 50%
• Bioethanol?
reduce costs.
• Compressed gas from
Hydro (mini technically mature, but
methane from
waste.
5%
micro)
limited potential
Photovoltaic
Sewage, Landfill,
Energy Crops/
Biomass/Biogas
<<5% even assuming
10 GW of installation
??5%
May 2011
2002
(Gas ~ 2p) (Gas ~ 8.0p) *
~ 2+p
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
~2.5 - 3p
12.5p +/- 2.5
2.5 - 3p
11p for
<2MW
projects
available, but much further
research needed
bring
Totoprovide
down costs significantly
p electricity
25p +/-8
5%15+
of UK
needs will require an area the size of
Norfolk and Suffolk devoted solely
to biomass
available, but research needed
in some areas e.g. advanced
gasification
2.5 - 4p
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
7 - 13p
depending on
technology
16
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
2002
May 2011
drivers/barriers
(Gas ~ 2p) (Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~25%
available now
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
~ 2+p
Off Shore
available but costly
25 - 50%
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Wind
11p for
Small Hydro
5%
limited potential
2.5 - 3p
No<2MW
sound
onprojects
video
available, but very
Photovoltaic
<<5%
15+ p
25p +/-8
costly
available, but research
Biomass
??5%
2.5 - 4p
7 - 13p
needed
currently < 10
technology limited Wave/Tidal MW may be 1000
major development not
Stream
- 2000 MW
before 2020
(~0.1%)
4 - 8p
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
19p +/- 6
Tidal 26.5p
+/- 7.5p Wave
17
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
2002
May 2011
drivers/barriers
(Gas ~ 2p) (Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~25%
available now
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
~ 2+p
Off Shore
available but costly
25 - 50%
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Wind
11p for
Small Hydro
5%
limited potential
2.5 - 3p
<2MW
projects
Video of device
available, but veryVideo of device
Photovoltaic
<<5%
15+ p
25p +/-8
costly There is no sound to this video, but
There is nosome
sound
available, but research
it demonstrates
of to
Biomass
??5%
2.5 - but
4p it
7 - 13p
this video,
needed technicalities
of the device
demonstrates some of
technicalities of the
device
currently < 10
technology limited Wave/Tidal MW may be 1000
major development not
Streamn
- 2000 MW
before 2020
(~0.1%)
4 - 8p
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
19p +/- 6
Tidal 26.5p
+/- 7.5p Wave
18
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
2002
May 2011
drivers/barriers
(Gas ~ 2p) (Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~25%
availableSevern
now Barrage/
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
~ 2+p
Mersey
Barrages
Off Shore
available buthave
costlybeen considered frequently
25 - 50%
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Wind
e.g. pre war – 1970s, 2009
11p for
Severn Barrage
5-8%
Small Hydro
5%
limited potential
2.5could
- 3p provide
<2MW
of UK electricity needs
projects
available, butInvery
Orkney –15+
Churchill
Barriers
Photovoltaic
<<5%
p
25p +/-8
costly
Output ~80 000 GWh per annum available, but research
Sufficient for 13500
Biomass
??5%
2.5 - 4phouses 7in- 13p
needed
Orkney but there are only 4000 in
currently < 10
technologyOrkney.
limited - Controversy in bringing
19p +/- 6
Wave/Tidal MW may be 1000
major development
not
4 - 8p
Tidal 26.5p
cables south.
Stream
- 2000 MW
before 2020
+/- 7.5p
Wave
Would save 40000 tonnes
of CO
2
(~0.1%)
technology available but unlikely for
2020. Construction time ~10 years.
Tidal Barrages
5 - 15%
26p +/-5
In 2010 Government abandoned
plans for development
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
19
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
2002
May 2011
drivers/barriers
(Gas ~ 2p) (Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore
~25%
available now
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
~ 2+p
Wind
Off Shore
available but costly
25 - 50%
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Wind
11p for
Small Hydro
5%
limited potential
2.5 - 3p
<2MW
available, but very
Photovoltaic
<<5%
15+ p
25p +/-8
costly
available, but research
Biomass
??5%
2.5 - 4p
7 - 13p
needed
currently < 10 MW technology limited Wave/Tidal
19p Tidal
??1000 - 2000 MW major development not
4 - 8p
Stream
26.5p Wave
(~0.1%)
before 2020
Tidal Barrages
Geothermal
5 - 15%
In 2010 Government abandoned
plans for development
26p +/-5
unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be
confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
20
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
2002
May 2011
drivers/barriers
(Gas ~ 2p) (Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore
~25%
available now
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
~ 2+p
Wind
Off Shore
available but costly
25 - 50%
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Wind
11p for
Small Hydro
5%
limited potential
2.5 - 3p
<2MW
available, but very
Photovoltaic
<<5%
15+ p
25p +/-8
costly
available, but research
Biomass
??5%
2.5 - 4p
7 - 13p
needed
currently < 10 MW technology limited Wave/Tidal
19p Tidal
??1000 - 2000 MW major development not
4 - 8p
Stream
26.5p Wave
(~0.1%)
before 2020
Tidal Barrages
Geothermal
5 - 15%
In 2010 Government abandoned
plans for development
26p +/-5
unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be
confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
21
Our Choices: They are difficult
Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore
wind and biomass?. Photovoltaics are mature but much more
expensive than on shore wind.
Tidal and wave are not options for next 10 - 15 years except as
demonstration projects.
[technically immature ]
If our answer is NO
Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?
Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?
If our answer is NO
Do we want to return to using coal?
• then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly
• unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years
UNLIKELY – confirmed by Climate Change Committee
[9th May 2011]
If our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued
exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation?
>>>>>>
22
Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is YES
By 2020
• we will be dependent on GAS
for around 70% of our heating and electricity
imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria
Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>
If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.
Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global
Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS
option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making –
not merely be against one technology or another
23
Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation
TWH (billions of units (kWh))
Version suitable for Office 2003, 2007 & 2010
600
500
400
• 1 new nuclear station completed each year after 2020.
• 1 new coal station with CCS each year after 2020
• 1 million homes fitted with PV each year from 2020
- 40% of homes fitted by 2030
• 15+ GW of onshore wind by 2030 cf 4 GW now
• No electric cars or heat pumps
Oil
UK Gas
300
Offshore
Wind
Onshore
Wind
Imported
Gas
Existing Coal
200
Oil
Other
Renewables
Existing Nuclear
Existing Coal
New Coal
100
Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011)
- allowing for significant deploymentExisting
of electric
vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.New Nuclear?
Nuclear
0
1970
Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011)
- allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011)
- allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.
24
Raising Awareness
On average each person in
UK causes the emission of 9
tonnes of CO2 each year.
How many people know what
9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?
5 hot air balloons per person
per year.
"Nobody made a greater mistake
than he who did nothing because he
thought he could do only a little."
Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)
25
Raising Awareness
• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine.
Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance
alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.
• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume
of 1 party balloon.
• A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year
~ 500 balloons each year.
• Standby on electrical appliances
up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year)
• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.
•
Filling up with petrol (~£55 for a full tank – 40 litres)
At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai
--------- 90 kg of CO2
(5% of one hot air balloon)
上海徐汇区高第一小学
How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc
Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old
persons room for 1 hour?
School children at the Al Fatah University,
1.6
miles
Tripoli,
Libya
26
Raising Awareness
Electricity Consumption
kWh in period
4000
1 person
2 people
3 people
4 people
5 people
6 people
3000
2000
1000
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
No of people in household
6
Data courtesy of Karla Alcantar
• Social Attitudes have a profound effect on actual electricity consumption
• For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances
[NOT HEATING or HOT WATER or COOKING] can vary by as much
as 9 times.
• Significant savings in money can arise from effective awareness
raising
• When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times
27
Awareness in the Local Community
Awareness Raising and Good Record Keeping results in significant savings
St Paul’s Church,
Tuckswood
300
Pilot Lights
turned off
during week
kWh per week
250
200
100
50
Pilot
Lights £9
per week
Deanery Synod
Tamil Service
Main Service
pilot light
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
15/11
08/11
01/11
25/10
18/10
11/10
04/10
27/09
20/09
13/09
06/09
23/08
16/08
09/08
02/08
26/07
30/08
0
Heated by 3 warm
air heaters
Pilot
lights
off
150
Weeks in 2009 ending on date shown
New Strategy: pilot lights off throughout summer and used
strategically in winter resulted in an annual saving of:
5400 kWh of gas; 1030 kg of CO2 ; and a monetary saving of £260
Or a percentage saving of 38%
28
Sustainable Options for the future?
Energy Generation
Solar thermal - providing hot water - most suitable for domestic
installations, hotels and schools – generally less suitable for other businesses
Output for a 1.25kW PV Array
Average Daily Output
(kWh)
• 5 Example 2 panel ( 2.6 sqm ) in
2011 – generates 826kWh/year
Norwich
4
2012
(average
over 7 years).
2013
• 3 The more hot water you use the
5
2 more solar heat you get!
• 1 Renewable Heat Incentive available
from Summer 2013
0 Overall Solar Energy Gain
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
2007
•
kWh per day
•Solar PV – providing electricity - suitable for all sizes of installation 2008
4
2009
• Area required for 1 kW peak varies from ~ 5.5 to 8.5 sqm
2010
3
2011
depending on technology and manufacturer
Approximate annual estimate of2generation
2012
2013
= installed capacity * 8760 1* 0.095
0
hours in year
load/capacity factor of 9.5%
Jan Mar May Jul Sep
Nov
29
Options available for the Householder
Energy Generation
•Micro Wind - roof mounted turbines
Building Mounted - ~ 1kW
machines ~ generally poor
performance because of turbulence
except in a few locations
Not generally recommended
•Mini Wind - mast mounted turbines – can be good as long as well clear
of buildings, trees, etc – can be a good option for farms
Vertical Axis
machine – better
in turbulence
30
Mast mounted away
from buildings - 6kW
Potential output 6000 –
10000 kWh depending
on location
How Variable is Wind Energy?
70% of Wind Output is now Visible to National Grid
Predictions are made 2 days and 1 day in advance and demonstrate
a correlation comparable with the prediction of demand variations.
3500
Initial 48 hr prediction
3000
Final 24 hr prediction
2500
MW
Actual
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Days
Prediction made mid-afternoon for next 48 hours
Prediction made 1 day later and typically for output 24 hours in advance
Actual Output in last week of January 2012
31
How Variable is Wind Energy?
Projections made at 21:00 on Previous Day
Actual Output (MW)
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Projected output (MW)
Over 8700 Data points covering whole of 2012
Coefficient of Correlation 0.96
5000
6000
32
Options available for Communities/Householders
Energy Generation
•Onshore Wind - sensible for community
schemes – e.g. Orkney, Germany, Denmark etc –
the cheapest form of renewable energy
33
•
Biomass boilers - can be sensible but need a
reliable fuel supply. In cost terms with the
proposed Renewable Heat Incentive there are
attractions for homes / buildings heated by oil or
electricity but not, at present, mains gas.
•
Most convenient if running on pellets
•
Cheaper with wood chip but more difficult to
automate
Options available for heating buildings– Heat Pumps
Ground Source: Heat Pumps
~ twice floor area of building is required for heat collection.
Best performance with under floor heating to ensure difference
between heat supply and source temperature is as low as
possible.
Zones of building can be
controlled via a manifold
34
Options available for heating
the Householder
buildings–
– Heat Pumps
Heat pumps run off electricity
For a well designed ground source heat pump system:
•Typically 3.5 – 4 as much heat is produced as electricity consumed – the
Coefficient of Performance (COP).
•If a buffer tank is included in system, then off peak electricity can be
used to heat store overnight – minimising use of full rate electricity.
Air source heat pumps require external fan
system, and are not as efficient as air
temperature is low when most heat is needed.
Retro fitting with existing
radiators will lead to poor
COP, but could be improved
by fitting double radiators
and/or a buffer tank
35
Options available for heating buildings– CHP
PumpsReplaces normal boiler
Provides heat and electricity –
would normally run on gas
Currently there are incentives
under the Feed In Tariff.
Micro CHP
All microgeneration Installations such as
solar, wind, biomass, heat pumps, CHP
must be MCS Accredited
•
•
36
To be eligible to claim for any Incentive the
installation must be installed by a
registered MCS installer.
Certificate of installation must be
presented at time of registration.
Ethical Issues of International Trade
The Unbalanced Triangular Trade
0.94 billion
people
Raw materials
1.33 billion
people
Water issues are equally
important.
Each tonne of steel imported
from a developing country
consumes ~ 40 - 50 tonnes of
1.03 billion
people water
Each person in Developed Countries has been
responsible for an extra 463 kg of CO2 emissions in
goods imported from China in just 3 years
37
Conclusions: A Strategy for Future Sustainable Energy Supply
Will require:
• Effective Awareness and Energy Management;
• Improved Technology making better use of existing energy;
• Low Carbon Energy Supply – including:
– Cost effective and technically mature renewables
– Nuclear (?)
– Carbon Capture and Sequestration – but this will not
be available until mid 2020s on scale required if then.
• Onshore Wind (??? Some biomass) are the most cost effective
solution for low carbon energy until at least 2020
• Is becoming increasingly competitive with gas and is on track
to become one of the cheapest options by 2020.
• A coherent and rational approach to planning for new energy
systems based on evidence rather than emotion.
38
Conclusions and Reflections (1)
• Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades
• Energy Security will become increasingly important,
particularly in the UK.
• Energy costs are rising mostly from increasing scarcity of
traditional fossil fuels (only slightly from current support for
renewables)
• Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make
Energy Insecurity and cost increases more likely in future.
• Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation
of renewable energy coupled with small changes in
behaviour
It is as much about the individual’s response to use of
energy as any technical measures the Government may
take.
or do we ignore these warnings?
Conclusions and Reflections
FINALLY
"If you do not change direction, you may
end up where you are heading."
直译）：“如果你不改变，你将止步于原地。”
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC)
Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher
This presentation will be available from tomorrow at
http://www.uea.ac.uk/~e680/cred/cred.htm
40
41
Supplementary slides not given in actual presentation
at Science Cafe
42
Temperature changes: Evidence in East Anglia
Temperature rise in East
Anglia over last 50 years
is unequivocal
16
Mean Temperature (oC)
14
12
10
8
• Winter: October – March:
• Summer: April to September
• Compared to 1960 – in 2010,
– 13.1% less heating needed
– And 106% more cooling.
6
4
2
0
1960
summer
1970
1980
winter
1990
annual
2000
2010
Temperature Deviation deg C
0.60
0.40
0.20
below average
above average
Trend Line
0.00
-0.20
-0.40
-0.60
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Despite particular cold
December 2010 in UK –
worldwide it was 1st/2nd
hottest ever
How Variable is Wind Energy?
It is often argued that Wind Energy is unpredictable?
A single unscheduled trip
from Sizewell B Power
station has much more
impact than variations in
wind output.
Data from BMREPORTS
Changes in output over 30 minute
period for a 12 month period
Wind
Max:
914 MW
Min: – 1051 MW
StDev : 37.8 MW
Nuclear
Max:
1630 MW
Min:
- 877 MW
StDev:
39.9MW
44
Seeking Effective Low Carbon Solutions for Energy Supply
• Small scale solar PV under the Feed in Tariff (@43.3p/kWh)
•
~ £700+ per tonne CO2 saved
• Large Scale On-shore wind under Renewable obligation
•
~ £90+ per tonne CO2 saved
713 7000 MWh on shore wind generated at an extra cost of £265.4M
Total generated = 361 110 000 MWh: Effective subsidy = 0.07p / kWh
~ 0.6% on domestic bills or ~2% with all renewables considered
Compared to rises of 20%+ mostly from increases in fossil fuels
Subsidy for onshore wind is being cut by 10% in near future
Data from Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2011
• Cavity Insulation
•
~ <<£20 per tonne CO2 saved
• There will be an increased demand for electricity in a future which
promotes conservation of energy! - heat pumps – electric vehicles
• Effective Energy Management can often be cost negative in terms
of CO2 saved.
• An effective strategy will focus on most cost effective solutions both
in the short term and long term.
45
Alternative Strategies for Financing
•
•
•
Consumer purchases system and benefits from both reduction in
imported electricity and Feed In Tariff – suitable for both domestic and
commercial properties for those who are capital rich but income poor.
Company pays for and installs system and claims the Feed In Tariff – the
owner of land benefits from reduced energy bills – for those with limited
capital and less concerned with income.
Schemes exist for
• small wind – e.g. Windcrop who offer 5kW turbines which are less
affected by planning issues
• Domestic/community PV up to 50kW
Images courtesy of WindCrop
Honningham Thorpe, Norfolk
46
Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UK
March 4, 2013 7:17 pm
UK natural gas prices reach seven-year high
By Guy Chazan
UK natural gas prices soared on Monday to their highest in seven
years, as problems at a gas processing plant in Norway squeezed
supplies and raised fears of higher household energy bills.
The spike in prices underscored Britain’s growing reliance on gas from
Norway and the lack of availability of liquefied natural gas imports
from countries such as Qatar. It came with gas storage levels heavily
depleted because of below-average winter temperatures.
47
What are component parts of Electricity Prices?
Retail Price of Electricity in range 12 – 28p /kWh – often two rates –
more expensive for first units – cheaper thereafter.
• Charges by Meter Reader [e.g. Siemens]
• Admin and billing by Electricity Supplier – e.g.
E.ON, nPower etc.
• Profit for Electricity Supplier
~10p
Distribution Charges by UK Power Networks** equivalent to
overall charge of ~ 1.95 p/ kWh to domestic consumers
Transmission Network Charges by National Grid Company. In
East Anglia 3.63p / kWh (North of Scotland 1.48p/kWh South West 4.23 p/kWh)*
Actual cost of generating electricity at power station – including fuel
costs – varies on 30 minute basis.
Average to date in 2012 ~ 4.5 p/kWh +
max 10.9 p/kWh [Saturday 11th Feb 18:00]
min
2.8 p/kWh
+
*
**
From ELEXON Website – weighted average 30min figure
National Grid Charging Statement April 2012
UK Power Networks Charging Statement October 2011
48
Energy Consumption (kWh/day)
能源消耗（kWh/天）
Good Management at UEA has reduced Energy
Requirements in a low energy by over 50%
Space Heating
Consumption reduced
by 57%
1000
800
800
600
400
350
200
0
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Mean |External Temperature (oC)
Original Heating Strategy
原始供热方法
New Heating Strategy
新供热方法
49
Electricity Consumption in an Office Building in East Anglia
Consumption (kWh)
45000
Low Energy
Lighting Installed
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Jan Apr
Jul Oct Jan Apr
2003
•
•
•
•
Jul Oct Jan Apr
2004
Jul Oct
2005
Consumption rose to nearly double level of early 2005.
Malfunction of Air-conditioning plant.
Extra fuel cost £12 000 per annum ~£1000 to repair fault
Additional CO2 emitted ~ 100 tonnes.
50