Transcript a janus-faced challenge for our times

IAMSLIC Conference, Suva, Fiji
15th September 2008
Climate change: a janus-faced
challenge for our times
Patrick D. Nunn
Professor of Oceanic Geoscience
The University of the South Pacific
Organization of this talk
• The reality of climate change
• Looking back to the past
• Looking forward to the future
• Meeting the challenge of
climate change in the Pacific
Islands
Part 1
The reality of climate change
The reality of climate change
• Global temperatures
rose by an average of
0.5°C between 1890
and 1990.
• Global temperatures
are projected to rise
between 1.0°C and
3.5°C between 1990
and 2100.
• Maybe a six-fold
acceleration.
The reality of climate change
• Global sea level rose
by an average of 15
cm between 1890 and
1990.
• Global sea level is
projected to rise
between 15 and 95 cm
between 1990 and
2100.
• Maybe a six-fold
acceleration.
From IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
Observing
the effects of
climate
change
+ 0.8°C since 1940s - Hopkins Marine Station, California - Pacific sea anemone
Marr Ice Piedmont, Antarctica - winter temperatures +5°C since 1950
Naigani Island, Fiji –
shoreline erosion as a
result of sea-level rise
See the fallen
coconut trees
Naicabecabe Village, Moturiki Island, Fiji – at low tide
Navuti Village, Moturiki Island, Fiji – at high tide
Coming to terms with the reality of
climate change
• We seek to minimize
the impact of future
climate change.
• Need to look back
into the past to help
us understand the
present and future.
• Need to look into the
future with all the
tools at our disposal.
Janus – Roman deity
Part 2
Looking back to the past
Looking back to the past
• Climate change as a
continuous process
• Climate change for a
variety of reasons
• Climate change as a
cause of cultural
change
Climate change as a continuous
process
Climate change for a variety of
reasons
Climate change as a cause of
cultural change
Climate change as a cause of
cultural change
Lessons from the past
• Climate is
continuously
changing
• Solar forcing is the
principal cause of
climate change
• Climate change is the
principal cause of
societal change.
Part 3
Looking forward to the future
Looking forward to the future
Looking forward to the future
• Effect on food
productivity
– Crops
– Wild foods
– Reef foods
Looking forward to the future
• Effect on food
productivity
– Crops
– Wild foods
– Reef foods
• Effect on disease
transmission
• Effect on human
comfort
Looking forward to the future
Tahiti (French Polynesia) sea-surface temperatures
Looking forward to the future
Looking forward to the future
• Projected to rise 1595 cm by 2100
compared to 1990
level (most likely 30
cm by 2050).
• Rate of sea-level rise
will be about 1-6
times faster than the
previous 100 years.
Future sea-level rise
Looking forward to the future
• Effect on island water
tables
– Contraction and
salinization
Looking forward to the future
• Effect on island water
tables
– Contraction and
salinization
– More frequent flooding
Looking forward to the future
• Effect on island water
tables
– Contraction and
salinization
– More frequent flooding
• Effect on land area
– Shrinkage of usable
land area
Looking forward to the future
• Effect on island water
tables
– Contraction and
salinization
– More frequent flooding
• Effect on land area
– Shrinkage of usable
land area
– Shoreline erosion
Looking forward to the future
• Predicting the future
• Enabling
decisionmaking
• Education about
climate change
• Achieving
sustainability
Part 4
Meeting the challenge of
climate change
in the Pacific Islands
“Global mean sea level is projected to rise by 0.09
to 0.88 meters between the years 1990 – 2100.
The effects of climate change on human health,
eco-systems, food production, water resources,
small islands and low lying coastal areas are likely
to be serious.
Overall, climate change is expected to negatively
impact development, sustainability and equity.”
Address to the Ninth Conference of the Parties to the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Dr R K Pachauri, Chairman, IPCC
Milan, 10 December 2003
“It is truly frightening to
think that our ocean will
turn against us … I hope
that the appeal of the
peoples of the Pacific
can help convince the
industrialized nations to
discontinue their
profligate contamination
of the atmosphere.”
President Amata Kabua of the
Marshall Islands, 1988
“As a ten-year-old, I used to look
at the sea with awe, at the
seemingly endless supply of fish
that I could harvest … now when I
look at it, I wonder how far into the
new millennium we will be before it
overwhelms our coasts.
What is there to celebrate about a
new millennium if the northern
group of the Cook Islands, or the
many islands of Kiribati, Tokelau,
Tuvalu, the Federated States of
Micronesia and the Marshall
Islands are about to disappear
beneath the ocean?”
Tamari’i Tutangata,
Former Director of
SPREP, 2000
Management imperatives:
FIVE CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES
1. Taking ownership of climate
change
2. Effective long-range planning
3. Mainstreaming awareness of
climate change
4. Empowering communities
5. Relocation
CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #1: Taking
ownership of climate change
• Economic development of
Pacific Island nations is
inextricably tied to
environmental productivity.
• Pacific Island nations
should not continue to
depend on external funding
for climate-change
adaptation; they should
accept the issue as one
that affects them intimately
and should signal this
acceptance by committing
recurrent in-country funds.
What is left after phosphate mining, Nauru
CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #1: Taking
ownership of climate change
• Economic development of
Pacific Island nations is
inextricably tied to
environmental productivity.
• Pacific Island nations
should not continue to
depend on external funding
for climate-change
•adaptation;
Pacific Island
theynations
should should not continue to depend on
external
climate-change adaptation; they should
accept
thefunding
issue asforone
accept
thethem
issueintimately
as one that affects them intimately and
that
affects
should
signal
thisthis
acceptance by committing recurrent inand
should
signal
country funds.
acceptance
by committing
recurrent in-country funds.
CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #2:
Effective long-range planning
• Long-term national
plans should focus
on environmental
sustainability not
short-term profit
CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #2:
Effective long-range planning
• Long-term national
plans should focus
on environmental
sustainability not
short-term profit
• Dilemma for many
smaller poorer
democratic
countries
CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #3:
Mainstreaming climate-change awareness
• Media responsibility
CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #3:
Mainstreaming climate-change awareness
• Media responsibility
• Coordinated efforts
to raise awareness
through written and
oral outreach
CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #3:
Mainstreaming climate-change awareness
• Media responsibility
• Coordinated efforts
to raise awareness
through written and
oral outreach
• Role of churches
CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #3:
Mainstreaming climate-change awareness
• Media responsibility
• Coordinated efforts
to raise awareness
through written and
oral outreach
• Role of churches
• School education
CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #4:
Empowering communities
• Direct targeting of
community-level
decision-makers by
international donors
and NGOs
CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #4:
Empowering communities
• Direct targeting of
community-level
decision-makers by
international donors
and NGOs
• Awareness raising
by national bodies
CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #5:
Relocation: the unthinkable option?
• Acceptance that
some places cannot
continue to be
occupied or utilized
(as they are today)
in future.
• Disruption
associated with
relocation can be
reduced by early
(anticipatory)
action.
Tuvalu
Flooding in Nadi Town, Fiji – May 2007
Flooding in Nadi Town, Fiji – May 2007
Short-term solutions – not
sustainable in long-term
Flooding in Nadi Town, Fiji – May 2007
Nadi Town
(Fiji): the
imperative
for
relocation
CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #5:
Relocation: the unthinkable option?
• Acceptance that
some places cannot
continue to be
occupied or utilized
(as they are today)
in future.
• Disruption
associated with
relocation can be
reduced by early
(anticipatory)
action.
Maloku, Moala Island, Fiji
Conclusion
I applaud the fact that a conference of
information custodians is interested in
climate change ..
… because information is the ultimate
key to confronting the challenge of
climate change, information that is
appropriately packaged and accessible.
But in the end, it is for politicians to
lead the way forward …
… but there is little sign that this
happening in Pacific Island nations
at present.
Thank you for your attention