Transcript 幻灯片 1

International Workshop on Future
Climate Change Policy
August 6-9, 2006, Sao Paulo, Brazil
What Is Happening in China
on Climate Change?
LI Liyan and LU Xuedu
BASIC China Team
Outline
 China’s Present Situation
 Policies and Actions in China
 Building Together for Another Future
Vulnerability to adverse impact of climate change
Changes of Annual Average Temperature in China
(1951-2001)
Source:
CMA, 2005
（中国气象局国家气候中心）
Temperature increase observed with past half century in most areas, particularly
in northern China
Vulnerability to adverse impact of climate change
Changes of Annual precipitation in China (1956-2002)
（中国气象局国家气候中心）
Source: CMA, 2005
Precipitation increased in southern and western China but decreased in most areas
in north and north-east of China
Selected Indicators Related to Climate Change Mitigation (2004)
Population
1297 million
Population below poverty standard*
~30 million
GDP (current US$)
$1649 billion
GDP per capita (current US$)
$1272
Annual GDP growth
10.1%
Energy consumption
2032 Mtce
Energy consumption per capita
1.56 tce
Energy mix
Coal 67.7%, Oil 22.7%
Gas 2.6%, others 7.0%
Energy related CO2 emissions (2002)
1032MtC
CO2 Emissions per capita (2002)
0.8tC
CO2 emissions per GDP (2002)
0.75kgC/$
Source: WB, China Statistic Yearbook, WRI-CAIT
Share of Global Energy CO2 Emissions (2002)
Others, 30.35%
Canada, 2.09%
India, 4.49%
US, 23.32%
Japan, 4.90%
Russia, 6.20%
EU15, 13.37%
Source: WRI-CAIT
China, 15.28%
Distribution of GHG Emissions from China in 2000
HFC,
0.70%
SF4,
0.10%
PFC,
0.10%
N2O,
13.00%
CH4,
15.70%
Agriculture
21.20%
Waste,
2.40%
CO2
70.30%
CO2
70.30%
Industrial
Process,
7.80%
GHG
Energy Sector
Source: WRI-CAIT
Energy Demand in China Mtce
Projected Energy Demand to 2020, 2030, 2050
7000
Rapid industrialization and
urbanization are the key
drivers of emissions growth
6000
5000
4000
2225
3000
2000
1386
1000
0
2000
2010
Zhou 2020
Zhidong Li 2030
Source: CASS, 2006
2020
2030
2040
2050
DRC 2020
Xiulian Hu 2050
CDM Engagement
registered project by host party
2. Policy and Actions
 The first National Communication (NC) including
country GHG inventories 1994 has submitted.
 China is applying GEF for financial support to
formulate its second NC.
 National climate change strategy are under
formulation and will be issued for implementation
soon.
 Sustainable development policies and measures that
are in line with climate change convention goals are
taken as the national development strategy.
the 11th Five Year Plan (2006-2010)
20% Energy Intensity Reduction Target
t/10000yuan
(1980 price)
Energy Intensity
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
In 1980 prices
0
2
4
6
8
0
2
4
6
8
0
2
4
6
8
0
1 98
1 98
1 98
1 98
1 98
1 99
1 99
1 99
1 99
1 99
2 00
2 00
2 00
2 00
2 00
2 01
2.0
Year
Source: CASS, 2006
For the first time, controlling CO2 emissions is specified as one of the
goals for the country over the next 5 years.
National Objectives for Energy
Diversification by 2020
 Renewable Energy
• 11th Five-year Plan: 30 large scale wind farms with the capacity of
100Mw; Grid-connected wind and biomass will reach 5 Gw and 5.5
Gw respectively.
• Medium and Long term National Planning of Renewable
Development: renewable energy supply 400-500 Mtce, about 1/7 of
primary energy consumption, installation capacity of renewable
energy30% of the total generation capacity.
Wind power: Over 60 wind
farm in 15 provinces, installed
capacity 504MW in 2005
Deployment of Renewables Energy

Law of Renewable Energy issued in Jan. 2005, specific measures including
financial and economic incentives are under consideration
Solar thermal: Production
capacity 15 million m2,
annual increase rate 28%
Solar PV: Installed
capacity over 70 MW,
annual market growth
20%
Small hydropower: over
60,000 stations of installed
capacity 50GW in rural area
Biomass: 17 million household biogas digesters, over 1,600
industrial-scale biogas plants, two ethanol fuel production
bases, about 500,000 tons bio-oils produced, biomass power
installed capacity 2,000 MW
National Objectives for Energy
Diversification by 2020
 Nuclear power
• capacity installation for operation 40 GW, 4% of total
generation capacity, 6% of total electricity production
 Natural gas
• With optimistic estimates, production will increase from
39 billion m3 in 2004 to 200 billion m3 in 2020.
Da Ya Wan nuclear power
station in Guangdong
Talimu gas field in
Xinjiang
National CDM Fund -the First Carbon-driven Fund in China
 Sources: charges on CERs from CDM projects,
particularly HFC-23 projects 65% to be charged;
 Objectives: helping national wide actions to address
climate change including,
 Research and training for capacity building
 Mitigation & adaptation activities
 Facilitating preparation of CDM project
 Other climate change related activities
3. Building together for Prosperous Future
 The Government of China has stressed: “scientific
development focusing on human-centered, comprehensive,
coordinated and sustainable development, to promote the
integrated development of economy, society and humanity”.
 Weather and climate affect every aspect of people’s lives and
wellbeing, and strongly affect our ability to achieve national
sustainable development goals and policies (economic, social
and environmental).
 Mainstreaming climate change policy into sustainable
development strategy
International Cooperation
 UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol
 Asia-Pacific Partnership for Clean Development and
Climate (AP6)
• 6 members: US, Australia, Japan, South Korea, China and India
• 8 public-private sector taskforces: to prepare a work plan and
identify flagship projects
• Funding announced: Australia A$100m over 5 years, US US$52m
for 2007
 G8 + 5
 China-EU
 Other bilateral and multilateral mechanisms (ChinaCanada, China-Japan, China-Brazil, China-India, ChinaAustralia, China-USA, ……)
Climate Change Mitigation Potential Projected
(tce/10000 yuan RMB)
GDP energy intensity in China, 2000-2050
Energy demand will be reduced
by 27% (1708Mtce) in 2050 by
technology and policy scenario
compared with baseline
scenario in China.
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Energy intensity/GDP(BAU)
Energy intensity/GDP (TAP)
CO2 Emission in China,2050
(Mt-C)
CO2 emission(BAU)
CO2 emission(TAP)
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
39%
CO2 emission will be reduced
by 39% (1263Mt-C)in 2050 by
technology and policy scenario
compared with baseline
scenario in China
Source: ERI, 2005
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Engagement of Social Actors
Government
CC &SD
Civil society
(NGOs, Scientific
communities, etc.)
Regulation
Business
Costs
Competitiveness
of Company
Reputation
NGOs promote 26℃ Energy Saving Action for Air Conditioner every summer
New
business
Individuals also have a role to play
One-off consumables
in hotel
waste Food
over-packed moon cake
3R (Reduction, Reuse and Recycling) to build a more resources
efficient and environmental friendly society
China’ Position Towards a post-2012 Regime
 Following the principle of Common but
differentiated responsibilities
 Addressing Climate change under the framework of
sustainable development
 Taking Technology transfer and cooperation as a key
to address climate change
 Paying equal attention to mitigation and adaptation
 Intensifying international cooperation
China is towards achieving
ustainable future with the world.